Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mims, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 921 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front across the Florida Big Bend extending over the eastern Gulf. Widespread coverage of showers is ongoing ahead of the front, predominately along and northwest of the I-4 corridor and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. While coverage remains high across all of east central Florida (60-80%) today, many areas will still see periods of dry conditions in between rounds of rain. As of midnight, the highest rainfall totals are observed near I-4, just to the south and east.
Here, rain gauge observations have indicated 1-2 inches have already fallen. Additional rainfall totals between 1-3 inches are forecast across east central Florida, and locally higher amounts of 4-5 inches remain possible through this evening. A Slight risk for excessive rainfall continues, and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to localized minor flooding of urban and low- lying areas. The greatest coverage of showers overnight will be focused along the Treasure Coast as the front slides east- southeast.

A conditional threat for an isolated stronger storm exists across east central Florida this afternoon. Drier conditions south of a line from Cape Canaveral to Lake Kissimmee this morning may provide the more favorable area for storm development later in the day. Should instability become enough to support a stronger updraft, convective wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible. Weak directional shear and SRH values around 200 m2/s2 could allow for a weak tornado along the coast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Currently...Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall has overspread the Florida peninsula early this morning. Modest shear has allowed for weak organization of convection, with KMLB and neighboring radars showing broad rotation in the lines of heavier showers, despite the lack of lightning. RAP analysis attributes this to SRH values increasing to 200-300 m2/s2 early this morning, and indicates values further increasing towards 400 m2/s2 by daybreak.

Today-Tonight...The mid-level low and associated frontal system over the Deep South finally lift northeast in response to a sharp trough swinging into the western US and ridging building over Mexico and Texas. Large scale ascent over the Florida peninsula combined with anomalously high moisture will continue to support rounds of heavy showers and storms through the evening. Primary hazards continue to be a Slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall, and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.

For the flooding threat, main issue will be any flooding prone locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall through the event. Southwesterly steering flow 20-35 kts will keep heavy convection moving along with few if any boundaries for convection to get hung up on, minimizing the threat for training rainfall.
Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1-3" are expected, with locally high amounts of 4-5" possible through this evening. With antecedent drought conditions, most locations will be readily able to handle these rainfall amounts, especially given the periodicity. That said, while training isn't generally expected, some banding leading to locally high rainfall amounts over a few hours has been observed. Minor flooding could eventually develop in poor drainage or low-lying areas, and heavier downpours will lead to ponding of water on roads.

For the convective threats, models continue to show a conditionally favorable threat for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. As mentioned before, veered wind profiles contributing to high SRH values early this morning have supported some storm organization, and will need to keep an eye on the current activity until it pushes offshore, probably by around 7 AM.
Later today, the environment evolves as the front approaches and pushes through central Florida. Drier air moves into the mid-upper levels while the lower levels remain fairly moist, and temperatures aloft cool a bit, slightly increasing lapse rates and instability. In addition, any daytime heating we manage to get would also contribute to destabilization. However, while instability increases, SRH will decrease as shear becomes uniformly southwesterly. Models roughly agree on band of deeper convection with embedded lightning storms developing along and ahead of the front, tracking through central Florida sometime sometime between 1 PM and 10 PM (wide range due to low confidence in timing), with the highest chances for stronger storms after 4 PM. Looks this this band will essentially close out the rainfall event, with rain and storm chances quickly decreasing behind it.
Primary storm threats continue to be gusty winds 40-50 mph, with a 5% chance for locally damaging winds to 60 mph, small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. In addition, there is a low (2%) chance for a tornado, mainly along the coastal corridor.

In addition, a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at the beaches, and small craft should continue to exercise caution for with 15-20 kts in the local Atlantic waters.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The mid-level low continues to slowly lift through the eastern US, as ridging aloft builds over the Gulf. The time line for the cold front's departure has accelerated a bit since last night's package, with pretty good model agreement the boundary will have made it through most of ECFL by Tuesday morning, as much drier air wraps into the surface low behind the front, and tenuous high pressure starts building at the surface.
As a result, rain chances for Tuesday have come down considerably, now just 20-40% with most CAMs very pessimistic.
Wednesday's rain chances are even more on the ropes. Ended up departing from guidance a bit and keeping a 20% for most of the area to avoid over correction, but wouldn't be surprised to see these chances pulled back or outright gone in the next couple forecast packages. Otherwise, daytime temperatures warming to near normal after all being below normal from the cloud cover and rainfall.

Thursday-Sunday...Dry and hot as ridging builds over the Gulf and Florida, developing weak high pressure at the surface. Some nuance in how the surface high interacts with the Atlantic high, and whether the former remains discrete or gets absorbed into the ridge axis of the latter. Temperatures climb well above normal into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend with heat risk impacts felt either way, but whether we see record warm heat is less clear now. No mentionable rain chances at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions as a front pushing through Florida today and the local Atlantic waters later tonight keeps southeasterly winds around 15-20 kts and continues to produce scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms. Seas 4-5 ft.

Tuesday-Friday...Generally favorable, albeit increasingly hot boating conditions as the front over portions of the local Atlantic waters finally departs and high pressure builds over the area. W-SW winds 5-10 kts shift SSE-SE and increase to 10-15 kts in the afternoons and evenings with the sea breeze circulation.
Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday subside to 2-3 ft Wednesday onward. Rain and lightning storm chances linger into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, then dry conditions expected Thursday onward.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 731 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Multiple rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms at times, will persist through the afternoon hours. The timing of stronger showers and storms is a bit uncertain and fluid, as models struggle to resolve timing for individual bands.
Regardless, low VFR/MVFR conditions will likely prevail through much of the day in rounds of SHRA. Have included TEMPOs for stronger showers and storms along the frontal passage, beginning at LEE and ending later in the day at SUA. A few storms could become severe, with wind gusts up to 50kts, a brief tornado, and small hail possible. Drier conditions will develop this evening and into tonight, as VCSH diminishes and CIGs become VFR. SSE flow 10-15kts today, with gusts 20-25kts along the coast, will veer SSW into tonight, becoming 5-10kts after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 67 86 66 / 80 40 30 10 MCO 78 68 86 67 / 80 40 20 0 MLB 81 69 86 67 / 80 60 20 10 VRB 82 69 87 66 / 80 70 30 10 LEE 80 68 85 68 / 80 30 20 0 SFB 81 68 87 67 / 80 40 20 0 ORL 79 69 86 68 / 80 40 20 0 FPR 82 69 86 66 / 80 70 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.