Sunrise 6:56 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 3:48 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 1024 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth. Friday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth late. Saturday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight, then becoming northeast late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight, then becoming smooth to slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Sunday - North winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1024 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
seas of 3-5 feet will persist through early next week. Onshore winds will continue through the end of the week. Periods of haze and fog can be anticipated ahead of the arrival of the next frontal boundary this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms associated with the front are expected Saturday into Sunday morning. The boundary will leave moderate to strong ne winds in its wake Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, relaxing to light to moderate levels by Monday. Onshore winds will return by the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 190444 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush Country continues tonight

▶ High risk of rip currents continue tonight

▶ Heat Indices around 105 degrees over the western Brush Country today

Not much change to the forecast other than slightly lower PoP's but still have a low chance (<20%) for convection out west. We still have a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the western half of our CWA as a supportive environment continues, evidenced by today's 12Z sounding, into tonight but is expected to diminish during the overnight hours. The HRW NSSL, ARW, and FV3 still hinting at a MCS forming over MX west of the Brush Country tonight and looks to clip our northwestern counties. Low confidence in this scenario as none of the other CAM's have this MCS. Any storms that develop will be capable of large hail and damaging winds but the threat is expected to diminish within a few hours after midnight and isolated to scattered showers are generally expected tonight through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile a cold front currently situated near the TX Panhandle is expected to stall over the Hill Country before it slides across our CWA this weekend but more on that in the long term discussion.

Temperatures: Today will top out in the 80s to upper 90s with heat indices will peak briefly around 105 degrees out in the Western Brush Country. Tomorrow will be a little cooler with heat indices topping out around 100 degrees out west. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low 70s tonight and tomorrow night.

Hazards: Strong to severe thunderstorms may result in damaging winds and large hail of at least 1.0 inch.

Rip Current: The risk is high this afternoon due to increased swells but is expected to slightly diminish so have a Moderate Risk for rip currents through tomorrow.

Fog: Is expected to develop over the waters tonight and advect onto land early tomorrow morning where visibilities can drop to 1 mile or less at times. Have Patchy fog inland from the Victoria Crossroads to the Southern Coastal Plains but is expected to dissipate by late morning.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Message:

- There is a medium to high chance (40%-75%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a cold front moves through South Texas.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500 hPa shortwave trough will move eastward across the Southern Plains Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Cyclonic vorticity advection will contribute to upper level support for ascent over a stationary front that is forecast to extend across Central Texas Saturday morning.
Above normal PWAT (with ensemble IQRs ranging from 1.5"-1.9") along and ahead of the front will result in a medium to high (40%-75%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a reinforcing cold front pushes through South Texas.

All three ensemble guidance systems indicate a medium chance for CAPE to exceed 1500 J/kg in conjunction with 0-6 km shear greater than 35 knots ahead of the front. Should this environment develop, it will be supportive of organized convective modes with shear vectors aligned parallel to the orientation of the cold front indicating a higher likelihood of linear modes. Therefore, there is a very low chance (5% or less) for a severe thunderstorm Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front on Monday. However, temperatures will quickly rebound during the middle of the week as a 500 hPa ridge builds over the central CONUS.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Aviation conditions are forecast to deteriorate over the next few hours across the eastern terminals, with a mixture of MVFR to IFR expected. Across the west, VFR will persist through the mid morning hours on Friday, before falling to MVFR levels briefly. A return to VFR is forecast across all sites by the afternoon. A nearby thunderstorm may be registered in the vicinity of COT tonight, but chances are too low for this to be added into the TAFs. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds through the night, becoming gusty out of the east Friday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Patchy sea fog is expected to develop tonight over much of the waters with a low to moderate chance of visibilities less than 1 nm. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to persist through the end of the week with very low chances of precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front. Weak to moderate flow could increase slightly, resulting in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions at times over the next several days. A cold front is forecast to move through the coastal waters early Sunday morning with northeast winds increasing to 15-20 knots by Sunday afternoon. There is currently a high chance that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for Sunday. Winds are forecast to fall below 15 knots Monday morning as high pressure builds into the northwestern Gulf Of Mexico. Onshore flow will return by the middle of next week as the area of high pressure shifts eastward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 73 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 70 85 70 84 / 10 10 0 30 Laredo 73 95 72 91 / 20 10 10 20 Alice 71 91 70 88 / 10 10 0 20 Rockport 73 83 72 83 / 10 10 0 10 Cotulla 73 88 71 88 / 20 10 20 40 Kingsville 72 90 71 86 / 10 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 74 82 73 82 / 10 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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