Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cedar Key, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

The main concern today is increased potential for flash flooding from bands of heavy rainfall. A backdoor front, some upper impulses, and a very moist airmass are the culprits. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are poised to flourish during the afternoon and early evening hours. Expect high convective coverage with multiple cell mergers, training bands, and plentiful outflow boundaries. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) in place across much of SW GA where the backdoor front is slated to be positioned. A spatial extension is possible to SE AL and parts of northern FL. More details in the Hydrology section below. Convection slowly diminishes after sunset with lingering showers well into tonight. High temperatures range from the 80s to around 90 degrees with lows in the low 70s. As a reminder, the rip current risk will remain high once again at all local beaches, so be on the lookout for red flags flying if visiting.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Rain chances become more confined to the seabreeze zone as the backdoor front continues sagging southward Monday through Tuesday night. On Monday night, we will also need to monitor the potential for a (decaying?) Mesoscale Convective System or MCS diving southeastward from TN/AL in between an upper ridge to our east and digging trough along the Atlantic coastal plain. If the MCS can make into the Tri-State area, then it could pose a threat for heavy rain and/or severe weather. A SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) lurks just west and NW of our SE AL counties. Additionally, the MCS may leave behind an outflow boundary to serve as focus for renewed convection Tuesday morning.

By mid week, the backdoor front should have slipped far enough to our south to allow relatively drier air to filter in from the north and suppress convection through at least Friday. Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be the hottest days with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and heat indices of 90s to low 100s, then drop into the 80s the remainder of the work week thanks to the anticipated dry and slightly "cooler" post-frontal airmass.
Tuesday's lows are in the low 70s, then drop a few degrees each of the next successive two nights. Thursday and Friday morning are expected to feel the coolest as inland min temperatures drop to the low 60s (isolated upper 50s).

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Patches of MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected for a few hours around sunrise at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon, activity begins winding down after sunset.

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Gentle to moderate west to southwest breezes prevail through early next week with a daily onshore seabreeze. Occasional fresh onshore breezes usher cautionary conditions across the nearshore legs Tuesday afternoon. Additional boating concerns are thunderstorms mainly during the morning hours. By early Wednesday, a backdoor front slipping south of the waters causes winds to freshen out of the northeast with possible advisory level easterlies into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A very moist airmass and high rain chances should keep fire concerns minimal through early work week. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will pose a frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic wind threat. Widespread wetting to soaking rains are likely today, especially over SW GA. Winds will be somewhat variable thanks to presence of a backdoor front and flourishing convection. High dispersions are forecast Monday afternoon. Convection becomes more confined to the seabreeze zone Monday-Wednesday, so conditions are forecast to be hot. Notably drier conditions arrive late this week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today will be the most convectively active day of the forecast period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Widespread rainfall amounts range from about a half inch to 1.5 inches (isolated higher). However, local CAMs suggest a 12-hr worst case scenario of 3-4+ inches this afternoon and about 2-5+ inches during the evening mainly north of the FL state line (isolated 6-8 inches appears possible). The probability of 3 inches range from about 25-50% - highest around the I-75 corridor and Wiregrass Region. The 0Z HRRR paints high probabilities for >3 inches in SE AL, SW GA, and parts of the Eastern FL Big Bend with lower-end probs of exceeding 5 inches! This information suggests a fairly high ceiling for heavy rain. Current flash flood guidance shows that about 2-2.5 inches in 1 hr and 3-4 inches in 3 hrs would be needed to produce flash flooding.

Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture, but long term drought conditions remain. As of May 28th however, the latest monitor shows improvement along/west of the Flint River basin where D2 severe drought is now in place from roughly from Albany, GA to just west of KECP in Bay County, FL. Extreme to exceptional drought remains in place to the east. Additional near-term improvement is likely if the amounts described above are realized.

In terms of rivers, the Choctawhatchee Caryville has crested and should fall below action stage later this morning while Bruce is now forecast to reach action stage by about 8AM EDT.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 73 90 74 / 50 40 30 10 Panama City 88 77 89 76 / 20 20 30 10 Dothan 84 72 89 72 / 70 80 20 30 Albany 83 71 88 71 / 70 70 10 30 Valdosta 86 72 89 71 / 70 80 40 10 Cross City 90 75 90 74 / 30 30 50 10 Apalachicola 87 79 88 79 / 20 10 30 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.