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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 758 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 758 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
there will be a daily risk of showers and Thunderstorms over the gulf waters with coverage becoming more widespread after midweek due to an approaching cold front that is expected to move off the coast Thursday night. Ahead of the front, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will provide somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels. Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely and advisories are possible.

FXUS64 KHGX 022343 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 643 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Forecast and reasoning hasn't really changed from what was described below, but with the high PW's forecast to be in place, along with what looks like a psuedo warm frontal boundary (focusing mechanism) along the coast...have added in the mention of locally heavy rainfall into the grids for the coastal counties. Ground should be able to handle the majority of rain at most locations, but there are enough signals for some training/regenerating storms near this boundary where I wouldn't be too surprised to see some very embedded/localized pockets of 3-5" totals. Airmass is such where it could fall in a short time period and that's where our problems would arise. Unfortunately can't further pinpoint exact locations due to the small/localized potential, but something to keep an eye on. If it ends up near a coastal watershed or Galveston Island, tides are running about 2 feet above normal so that'd further hamper effective draining.

Also a touch concerned about water levels around high tide Tue evening where PETSS guidance is depicting peaks around 4ft MLLW.
This may push some wave runup close to more susceptible roads on the Bolivar Peninsula (Highway 87/124 intersection) and well up Galveston/Surfside beaches. Will dig into this later tonight and possibly replace/extend the rip statement with a more encompassing beach hazard statement that'd take all water related hazards into account. 47

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

After the hottest summer on record for the Houston area, we're rolling into October with...wait more heat?! Well it is spooky season after all, so it makes sense that the ghost of summer is haunting us for a little while longer. The good news is today and Tuesday look to be the last gasp of summer with changes on the horizon (more details on that in the long term discussion below).
Today will be fairly similar to Sunday with high temperatures mainly in the mid 90s, but some spots may be able to reach the upper 90s as well. This is due to mid to upper level ridging remaining in place with 500mb heights around 590-592 dam, 850mb temperatures at their 90th percentile, and 700mb temperatures at their 99th percentile.
Upper level clouds are beginning to move in from west as well, so that may inhibit high temperatures a bit. Speaking of clouds, go ahead and pull up either visible satellite imagery or water vapor and you'll see an axis of moisture extending from the western Gulf to south Texas. This plays a big factor in Tuesday's wet forecast...

With an upper level trough approaching from the western CONUS, the ridge will break down which will allow for that moisture axis to expand northward into Southeast Texas. By Tuesday afternoon, PW values will be up to 2.1"-2.3" west of I-45. To give you an idea of how much moisture that is...the 90TH percentile is ~1.93" so some will be well above that. As a result, there is potential for locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast. This is why the WPC has outlined areas generally south of I-10 under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on Tuesday. 12Z HRRR continues to ping coastal areas of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties with the most rainfall on Tuesday, which is in line with WPC's QPF as well. In general, expecting 1"-3" along the coast tomorrow but isolated higher totals will be possible. Some of the 12Z CAMs indicate the potential for a brief window of training showers/storms along the coast late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, so we will need to monitor rain rates for isolated flooding with 1hr and 3hr FFG generally around 3".

As far as temperatures go, still expecting highs on Tuesday in the low 90s with some mid 90s possible up north around the Brazos Valley since the rain will take longer to make it up there. Increasing moisture and cloud cover will bump up our overnight lows from the low to mid 70s that we'll see tonight to the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday night. Speaking of temperatures, you may have heard about a cold front on the way later this week! It'll be discussed further in the long term, but by late Tuesday the front will be somewhere around the Texas Panhandle. This is important to note because this places us in the warm sector of its parent surface low with Theta-E ridging and surging moisture out ahead of the front. Long story short: It's gon' rain.

Batiste

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

An upper level trough should push eastward across the Rockies/High Plains on Wednesday, subsequently draping a robust cold front across SE Texas during the later half of the week.
Onshore flow should provide ample moisture in advance of this front, with PWs in excess of 2.0" during this period. Mid to lower level RH over 70% with thin CAPE profiles in forecast soundings further indicating high precipitation efficiency. Weak impulses aloft and a broad surface trough axis across the SE CONUS should be sufficient to tap into this ample moisture, bringing scattered showers/storms on Wednesday. 850mb temperatures should range from 17-19C during this period, with cloudy skies progged to further limit daytime heating. With this in mind, expect highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the 70s.

The aforementioned cold front should reach SE Texas Thursday afternoon, bringing more numerous showers and thunderstorms as it pushes south across the region. The GFS shows robust PVA with the frontal passage, much moreso than the day before. Given the high precipitation efficiency and increased forcing, WPC has SE Texas under a marginal (level 1/4) to slight (level 2/4) risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday. Very dry soil conditions should help mitigate the threat of excessive rainfall, though locally heavy rainfall in areas of poor drainage (such as urban locations)
could lead to minor flooding and occasional ponding on roadways.
The cold front should push offshore overnight, though lingering, post-frontal showers will remain possible into Friday.

A midlevel shortwave trough looks to sweep across the northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes region on Friday. This feature should invigorate the aforementioned upper level trough axis, and subsequently bringing a reinforcing front to SE Texas Friday afternoon. Rain chances and sky cover should decrease in the days following as breezy northeasterly flow funnels drier air into the region. 850mb temperatures should drop to around 10-15C by Saturday, with dewpoints bottoming out in the 40s/lower 50s. Highs for Sunday should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s/upper 60s.

03

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR into the overnight hours. Moisture axis will transition eastward and into our coastal areas late tonight with some sct shra/tstms developing heading into sunrise along the beaches...expanding in coverage to about the I-10 corridor in the mid morning hours.
Look for MVFR ceilings to fill in there as this occurs. In addition, could see some locally heavy rain develop (more favorable south of I-10 and along the coast) during the day. Further north, rain chances will be lower, but will watch for outflows and daytime heating to generate some sct activity further north up to maybe CXO later in the day. 47

MARINE
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

East to southeasterly winds around 15 to 20 knots with seas of 4 to 6 feet should prevail throughout the first half of the week.
Combined with a persistent fetch, this should bring higher tide levels, higher rip current risk and the potential for minor coastal flooding during this period. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible daily, with rain chances peaking on Thursday as a cold front pushes off the coast. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Thursday night, likely by Friday night/Saturday morning as a reinforcing front pushes offshore. Lower rain chances and north/northeast flow can be expected this weekend.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 96 75 90 / 0 40 30 60 Houston (IAH) 73 93 76 90 / 10 40 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 80 88 / 30 70 50 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Tuesday morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

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Port O'Connor
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Mon -- 07:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:14 PM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:11 AM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:49 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM CDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Freeport Harbor, Texas, Tide feet

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