Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palacios, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 6:01 AM CDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 454 Am Cdt Tue May 11 2021
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 454 Am Cdt Tue May 11 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Southeasterly flow will prevail through early Wednesday ahead of an approaching stationary front. This front is expected to reach our coastal waters by early Wednesday and push south and out of our coastal waters by late Wednesday. Behind this front, winds will become northeast and strengthen to at least exercise caution criteria and possibly advisory criteria. Winds will become east by Friday as a high pressure pushes out of our area and onshore southeast winds will resume by early Saturday. These southeast winds will prevail through early next week. The next chance for rain is on Sunday with an approaching coastal low.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palacios, TX
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location: 28.69, -96.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 110909 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 409 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

DISCUSSION.

With a quasi-stationary front in the area that may only sag a little bit coastward today, we'll look for yet another day with plentiful showers and thunderstorms. And while rainfall amounts have generally been pretty light, the strongest storms have been able to drop 5-7 inches of rain. As soils have gradually become increasingly saturated in Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties, another round of such rainfall could create localized flooding concerns. Because of this, a flash flood watch has been issued for those three counties today and tonight. Elsewhere, soils should be dry enough to handle expected rainfall with minimal issues.

Some rain chances will linger into Wednesday, but should generally wind down into Thursday, and we'll see fair weather prevail until our next shot for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

A stalled front is draped across Southeast Texas very early this morning, and we shouldn't really expect things to change all that much today and tonight. Perhaps, closer to dawn on Wednesday, we'll see the front manage to push more coastward, but it will remain the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms again today.

As noted above, our focus for any potential flooding concerns will be in the northeast, in Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties. That's not to say locally heavy rain isn't possible elsewhere in the area - it certainly is. But the antecedent conditions from heavier rains the past couple days in those areas prime the area to more easily see potential flash flooding emerge. Even in the watch area, most are unlikely to see the rains necessary to cause flooding - but low-lying and poor-drainage locations will be more susceptible there to heavy rain than anywhere else in the area.

A look at HREF rainfall products paint a very similar picture to recent days. There is widely varying potential for rainfall across the region, ranging from virtually no rain at all, to as high as 5-7 inches in the wettest storms. I suspect that again, the signal in the ensemble for the heavier rains north of I-10 are more likely to verify, particularly as that area will spend the most time nearest the focal boundary. However, should the front finally get kicked coastward towards Wednesday morning, the signal for locally heavy rain on the coast could be something to keep an eye out for. On the plus side, since that's an area that hasn't seen a whole lot in the way of rain recently, the coastal plain will not be nearly as susceptible to the kind of QPF we're seeing in the localized probability-matched mean in this CAM ensemble.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Wednesday Night].

Assuming the front finally does make its way to the Gulf Wednesday morning, we should see rain gradually taper off through the day. I keep pretty high PoPs in place into the early afternoon, as the frontal surface aloft will lag the surface boundary by several hours. A modest amount of surface cold advection and (probably more importantly, to be honest) evaporative cooling and cloud cover sticking with us, should knock down temperatures several degrees on Wednesday from the early week heat. Continuing clouds could keep overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday up a bit, but a quicker clearing would let temps slide a bit more.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday].

By Thursday morning, the front should be offshore and CAA from northeast winds will begin to filter in. Daytime highs on Thursday will be near 80, but overnight lows will be pleasant and in the mid- 50s to near 60. By late Friday, a high pressure overhead will begin to push east of our area and onshore winds will resume by Saturday. This will bring back WAA and moisture advection, driving temperatures and humidity up this weekend. Daytime highs will be back into the mid-80s by Saturday and overnight lows will be back in the 70s.

The next chance for rain still appears to be early Sunday morning with an approaching upper-level shortwave from the west and a coastal low developing near our CWA. The GFS is showing a wetter solution and agrees more with the ECMWF, so PoPs were increased on Sunday and Monday. Not much of a reprieve from rain is expected with another upper-level shortwave over the Upper Midwest and its associated surface front stretching across most of Central CONUS is expected to push through our region on Monday and Tuesday. Global models still disagree regarding this front's intensity and duration, so kept PoPs around 30% with further refinement expected as models come to more of a consensus.

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance].

Mix of VFR to IFR cigs across SE Texas to continue through the rest of the night hours. Cigs expected to lift Tuesday morning and possibly scatter out during the afternoon hours. There is still a chance for patchy fog to develop given the small dew point spreads and light VRB winds, however, high clouds moving in from the west could suppress it from forming.

Tuesday, continued with not mentioning wx for the morning hours, though some isolated activity is possible. SHRA/TSRA activity will be more pronounced mostly along areas north of I-10 during the mid to late afternoon hours along a meandering boundary line. Hazards with these storms will be heavy rain, strong VRB gusty winds, frequent lightning and hail. Models bring this activity down into areas south of I-10 in the overnight hours, however, will have to wait for models to initiate them first Tuesday afternoon in order to obtain a better sense of timing and intensity of these storms.

S winds at 10 KTS or less expected Tuesday . VRB at times across CLL/UTS/CXO. Wind speeds along the coasts will be at 15 KTS or less.

MARINE.

Southeasterly flow will prevail through early Wednesday ahead of an approaching stationary front. This front is expected to reach our offshore waters by early Wednesday and push south and out of our coastal waters by late Wednesday. Behind this front, winds will become northeast and strengthen to at least Exercise Caution criteria and possibly Advisory criteria. Winds will become east by Friday as a high pressure pushes out of our area and onshore southeast winds will resume by early Saturday. These southeast winds will prevail through early next week. The next chance for rain is on Sunday with an approaching coastal low.

HYDROLOGY.

Today's forecast looks much like the past couple of days, and flooding potential - particularly flash flooding - will depend very heavily on just how much rain falls and where exactly it does so. This could also have some impact on river levels, particularly for sites in the Trinity watershed. At this time, expectations do not raise any specific flooding concerns, but with a flash flood watch having been issued to the northern/eastern shore of Lake Livingston, it may be something to keep an eye in to be cautious.

CLIMATE.

A record high minimum temperature was set yesterday at Houston/Hobby Airport. The venerable record of 77 degrees set in 2015 fell to the new record of 78 degrees.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 81 63 69 59 76 / 70 60 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 88 69 75 61 79 / 40 70 80 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 73 78 66 79 / 20 60 60 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following zones: Houston . Polk . Trinity.

GM . None.



DISCUSSION . Luchs NEAR TERM . Luchs SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . KBL AVIATION . 24 MARINE . KBL HYDROLOGY . Luchs CLIMATE . Luchs/KBL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 12 mi44 min S 16 G 17 79°F 80°F1009.4 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi44 min SSE 19 G 24 78°F 84°F1009.1 hPa
MBET2 19 mi44 min SSW 20 G 23 78°F 1008.3 hPa
EMAT2 25 mi44 min ESE 11 G 13 79°F 82°F1010.6 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 26 mi44 min ESE 14 G 19 82°F 81°F1009.2 hPa
AWRT2 39 mi44 min SE 13 G 20 79°F 81°F1007.6 hPa
SGNT2 41 mi104 min SSE 9.9 G 13 79°F 83°F1011.8 hPa
KBQX 48 mi27 min SSE 21 77°F 77°F
MAXT2 - Mission-Aransas Reserve, TX 51 mi62 min SE 22 80°F 1009 hPa (-6.0)80°F

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX8 mi70 minSSE 37.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1010.5 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX16 mi67 minSSE 77.00 miFair80°F75°F86%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSX

Wind History from PSX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:10 PM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.11.11.1110.90.90.80.80.70.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:53 AM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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