Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeport, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Surface high pressure is moving over the area today and should push off to the east this evening, allowing onshore flow to return tonight. Before that occurs, we'll still see fairly dry conditions develop this afternoon, though thankfully winds remain light enough to mitigate fire weather concerns to an extend. Regardless, return flow will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. With WAA initiating after peak heating, highs should only top out in the 50s/lower 60s this afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s inland and lower 50s right along the coast.

On Monday an upper level trough digging through the Northern Plains/Great Lakes is expected to send yet another cold front towards SE Texas. Onshore flow will still be in place during the daytime, so highs are anticipated to reach the upper 50s/60s with some spots potentially reaching the 70 degree mark. The cold front is set to arrive Monday night, then stall out over the Gulf waters early on Tuesday. Onshore flow returns Tuesday afternoon/evening as winds shift southeasterly again, allowing moisture to build into mid week.

Wednesday, and at least partially Thursday, are slated to be the wettest period in the forecast. PWs are anticipated to reach 1.2- 1.7" on Wednesday as a mid/upper level trough pushes east though TX/Mexico. A LLJ begins to form, though the main axis of peak winds will be focused around Central/NE Texas. Still, portions of our area should see low level winds approach 20-30 knots on the northern end of our CWA during this period. Forecast soundings depict saturated conditions across the mid/lower levels of the atmosphere with some instability, though low. Some timing discrepancies emerge around this point in the forecast, where some models push the trough & following cold front through sooner (off the coast by early Thursday), while others have the FROPA slower/later. LREF has rainfall totals through this period ranging from 0.25-1.00 inches with the highest totals focused closer to the coast. The most dominant LREF cluster places this axis of deeper QPF further inland compared to the grand ensemble with overall the highest totals, some approaching 1.75" offshore. This first LREF cluster is now composed of ~33% of the ensemble's members. GEPS composes only 40% of this cluster now with higher contributions from the GEFS & ENS. There also appears to be a broader trend in the LREF showing the axis of deeper QPF shifting further north. The NBM is showing 0.20-1.5 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts up to 2.00 inches.
90th percentile LREF & NBM suggests that, in a reasonable worst-case scenario, higher end amounts could reach 2.00-3.00 inches. Still, low soil moisture and D1-D3 drought conditions will help mitigate flooding concerns. 3hr FFG is over 3.00" across nearly all of SE Texas (beyond the current worst-case amounts), thus flooding concerns remain low for the moment... but should be closely monitored over the next few days.

Guidance suggests that moisture will improve as the remnants of the aforementioned front tries to lift north ahead of another cold front, slated to enter the area Friday night/Saturday.

03

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR vis/cigs to prevail through the TAF periods. Winds will be light and variable tonight through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, SE 5-10 kt winds are expected. There could be brief gusts over 15 knots due to a slightly enhanced bay / sea breeze later in the afternoon (after 20:00 UTC).

MARINE
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through later this evening. These water levels should improve to some degree tonight as onshore winds return, however, mariners should still be mindful of negative tide levels through early next week, especially at low tide. Cannot rule out additional low water headlines for now.
Next cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday with onshore winds returning as the boundary gradually lifts north into Wednesday. Expect more widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday as another weather system pushes through.

03

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Relatively poor RH recovery (by Southeast Texas standards, anyway)
to the 55-60 percent range tonight will set us up for another very dry day on Sunday. For another day, look for RH to fall into the upper teens and 20s for all but the beaches. Even there, the most "humid" part of Southeast Texas, should still expect minimum RH around 30 percent. Unlike yesterday, winds should be much lighter, only rising to around 5 mph for the large majority of the area. Winds at the coast may be slightly stronger, but still only in the 5-10 mph range.

Despite a brief return to onshore flow for much of Monday, a weak reinforcing front Monday night will bring winds back to northeasterly. This will prolong the time it will take for more humid conditions to return. Those more humid conditions, and ultimately some solid rain chances, should finally arrive mid- week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 33 64 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 36 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 45 62 53 62 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.