Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sugarmill Woods, FL

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Complex scenario continues with highly variable flight categories from brief VFR conditions in between numerous rounds of SHRA/TSRA with IFR cigs/vsbys and gusty winds in and near stronger cells.
These conditions will continue tonight and through much of MON.
Will keep prevailing MVFR vsbys/cigs with VCTS for ISOLD TSRA.
Likely will need short fused Tempos when TSRA becomes more likely thru the event. Gusty SSE-SW winds likely again around 14Z Monday and continuing through the day.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

A closed upper low and surface low continue to spin over Louisiana.
The associated frontal boundary extends south through the east central gulf. Abundant tropical moisture continues to be advected on the east side of this system and will bring persistent showers and storms to west central and southwest Florida over the next couple of days. The 12Z TBW sounding is showing an uptick of moisture with a PWAT of 1.8 inches this morning and a persistent S-SW flow through the entire column. This moist environment with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.0 inches will continue through Monday, supporting several rounds of showers and storms over the area. The main threat today will be with storms rolling in from the gulf, but we can't rule out some sea breeze storms as well during the afternoon hours. A Marginal Risk of severe storms expected again today for all of west central and southwest Florida with damaging winds and hail being the biggest threat. There is also a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over the Nature Coast southward to the I-4 corridor and also covering the Tampa Bay area, then a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall south of Tampa Bay through all of southwest Florida.

Monday is shaping up to be the wettest day of the forecast period.
The upper low and surface low will slowly lift northeastward with the frontal boundary shifting eastward closer to Florida. This will bring a more persistent and moist south-north oriented low level flow over the region with PWAT values around 2 inches. Some areas could see training showers and storms over the same areas, which could equate to some localized flooding and flash flooding concerns.
The risk for severe storms continue on Monday with a Marginal Risk covering all of west central and southwest Florida. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall also covers most of west central and southwest Florida. The upper and surface low continue moving northeast on Tuesday allowing for the front to shift east of Florida by Tuesday evening. Overall rainfall totals between today and Tuesday could be as high as 4-6 inches, and some localized higher amounts in some areas, which will be some welcome relief to hard hit drought areas across the region.

High pressure settles in over the area by Wednesday morning bringing drier conditions to the area. This more pleasant weather will continue through the end of the week.

MARINE
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

A surface low and frontal boundary are still on track to move eastward over the next couple of days, which will bring a very wet weather pattern over the eastern gulf waters with even higher chances of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Some moderately strong storms are being tracked on radar and will continue firing off through the day. A predominant southeast through southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots will prevail over the eastern gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week. Main hazard each day will be locally gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms and showers. This low pressure system and front pushes east of Florida by Tuesday evening allowing for clearing conditions as high pressure builds into the central and eastern gulf waters. Pleasant weather expected for the remainder of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

A very wet weather pattern will continue over Florida today through Tuesday afternoon. Daily afternoon showers and storms can be expected through the period with Monday being the wettest day. No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 84 74 85 / 90 80 20 20 FMY 73 85 73 87 / 80 90 50 20 GIF 71 81 68 85 / 90 80 40 20 SRQ 72 83 72 84 / 90 80 30 20 BKV 68 84 66 85 / 90 80 20 30 SPG 74 83 74 83 / 90 80 30 20

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.