Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quail Creek, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A stronger front looks to arrive sometime Saturday night and Sunday with rain chances on the increase as we go into Saturday afternoon and evening with the approach of a mid to upper-level trough that will become positively tilted as it digs into parts of northern Mexico. The enhanced lift with the trough along with the embedded shortwaves associated with it will provide chances for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms as we go into the overnight hours of Saturday and into all day Sunday. The latest HRRR and REFS ensemble runs show PWAT values between the 1.8-2.0 inch range across our area which would support locally heavy rainfall. 12Z model soundings show a fairly saturated thermodynamics profile throughout the boundary layer with a relatively skinny CAPE profile as well which is conducive for a classic heavy rainfall setup. As a result, the WPC has all of our CWA in a level 2(slight risk) for excessive rainfall beginning Sunday morning and into Monday. Rainfall totals from Saturday through Monday will range from around 1-3 inches across the Coastal Bend with isolated amounts closer to 4 inches.
Higher rainfall totals will exist farther west across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains with totals between 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of around 5 inches in and around where any training of storms setup. A likely hindrance to a higher end rainfall event for Sunday is due to the northerly flow from the recent frontal passage which would aid in more stable conditions in the form of moderate to periods of heavy rainfall with a few embedded thunderstorms via Isentropic Lift. Instability will be weak in combination with preexisting cloudiness and precipitation, which would further hinder a higher end rainfall event. Rain chances will begin to taper off as we go into Monday afternoon and evening as the trough progresses northeast of our area and eventually de-amplifies across the Eastern US towards Midweek. A brief quiet period will exist on Tuesday before rain chances return once more on Wednesday as the subtropical jet redevelops across the state, resulting in low rain chances(10-30%) across our area. A cold front looks to push through sometime on Thursday bringing slightly cooler temperatures with a decent drop in humidity levels.

For our coastlines, we are monitoring the potential for minor coastal flooding as we go into this weekend and early next week.
Tides will also be elevated in conjunction with the coastal flooding with the arrival of a new moon phase. High Tides cycles for Saturday are forecast to reach 2.0 ft above MSL with Sunday and Monday's high tide levels near 2.5 ft above MSL due to a moderate to strong persistent onshore flow.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Things will remain mostly VFR overnight with light northerly winds. After 14Z, winds become more NE/E'ly at near 10 kts. Cloud bases will lower after 18Z toward more MVFR CIGs with rain chances increasing across KALI/KLRD and spreading eastward after the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast to east wind is expected through Saturday afternoon. The flow becomes strong (BF 6) out of the northeast by early Sunday with occasional gusts to gale force possible. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed by early Sunday. Winds relax to a moderate (BF 4) level by Monday out of the east-northeast. Low chance of chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Rain chances increase to medium to high chance Sunday through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

The fire risk will remain low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values well above 30%. In addition, a medium to high chance for wetting rains can be expected across South Texas over the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 65 80 68 76 / 0 10 40 60 Victoria 62 80 61 71 / 0 10 30 60 Laredo 65 77 65 73 / 0 50 80 80 Alice 63 78 65 73 / 0 20 50 60 Rockport 67 81 69 78 / 0 10 30 50 Cotulla 60 76 60 68 / 0 40 90 100 Kingsville 64 80 67 76 / 0 20 50 60 Navy Corpus 71 80 72 77 / 10 10 30 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.