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GMZ237 Expires:202311300415;;605261 Fzus54 Kcrp 291528 Cwfcrp
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service corpus christi tx 928 am cst Wed nov 29 2023
middle texas coastal waters from baffin bay to matagorda ship channel out to 60 nautical miles. Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz236-237-300415- copano, aransas, and redfish bays- san antonio, mesquite, and espiritu santo bays- 928 am cst Wed nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 928 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
southeasterly flow will increase through the day today, becoming moderate to occasionally strong by this afternoon. Southerly flow will continue to increase tonight into Thursday as a 30-40 knot low level jet develops. As a result, a small craft advisory will go into effect at 9 pm for the offshore waters, midnight for the nearshore waters, and mid morning Thursday for the bays. In addition to strong winds from 30-35 knots, seas will climb to around 10-12 feet. These hazardous conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Isolated showers will be possible over the waters today with scattered showers and Thunderstorms likely on Thursday. By Friday winds will weaken to light to moderate levels and shift north to northeasterly. Seas will gradually subside. Mainly weak or weak to moderate winds are expected through the weekend.

FXUS64 KCRP 291144 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 544 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorm on Thursday - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents on Thursday

Microphysics imagery this morning reveals a mid level stratus deck spreading across the region as a isentropic lift begins to strengthen in the 295-300K layer. Increasing moisture through the day will warrant a slight chance of showers beginning this afternoon. As we head into the evening hours, the column will continue to moisten in the lower levels. This will lead to periods of patchy fog and drizzle through mid morning Thursday.

Our weather becomes a bit more concerning on Thursday as a shortwave trough moves across the state. Strong moisture advection, aided by a 35-40 knot LLJ, Thursday morning will allow for PWATs to climb to near 1.7" by mid day Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift across the region through the morning. A plume of instability, characterized by MLCAPE values from 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-3km SRH values from 300-600 m2/s2, and mid level lapse rates nearing 8C/km, will be nudged across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as the LLJ strengthens to 40-45 knots and veers slightly out of the southwest.
This instability axis will quickly move off to our northeast which should help limit our convective potential for those west of Highway 281. However, a passing H85 vort max will help encourage convection for the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Victoria Crossroads through Thursday afternoon. SPC currently has a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for our northeastern counties on Thursday with a Marginal Risk covering portions of the Coastal Plains and Northern Coastal Bend. The fast moving nature of these storms will help limit our flooding risk as storm total rainfall amounts are currently less than 1". The latest NBM probabilities only show a 20-25% chance for rainfall amounts over 1", mainly across the Victoria Crossroads.

Lastly, there will be a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday as winds pick up in the 20-25 knot range. Gerling-Hanson plots show swells increasing to around 8-9s through the day Thursday. This may also lead to some minor coastal flooding during Thursday high tide cycle. However, confidence is low in that outcome.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers Friday-Sunday east, then dry.

- Near normal temperatures.

As the mid-level shortwave ejects northward, quieter weather sets in late in the week. A few showers/storms (see short term discussion)
could linger in the Victoria Crossroads early Thursday night, but will move out quickly. Model consistency has been quite poor the past several days with expectations for fronts. We're still looking at a weak front Friday that will reinforce the drier air that has moved in Thursday night, and bring temperatures back to near normal levels. Beyond that, not seeing much focus through the weekend and into early next week. A weak coastal trough will keep low end (20- 30% chances for showers near the coast through the weekend, but only light accumulations would be expected. The front that had been in the forecast for early next week is in question now with an unclear surface boundary, however a deep pocket of dry air will settle in early in the week as surface high pressure builds. A weak cold front is now indicated for Wednesday, but confidence on this isn't great.
Temperatures through the weekend should remain near normal levels, with potentially cooler air Wednesday providing the passage of the aforementioned front.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions are in place across all terminals with the exception of LRD where MVFR ceilings have already developed. We will see a gradual lowering in clouds through the day with MVFR areawide by mid day and IFR during the evening hours. Isolated showers will develop through the day as moisture increases across the region. Patchy fog will also be possible overnight with MVFR/IFR visibilities developing at times. Our chances for thunderstorms begin to increase Thursday morning at VCT as we near the end of this TAF cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Southeasterly flow will increase through the day today, becoming moderate to occasionally strong by this afternoon. Southerly flow will continue to increase tonight into Thursday as a 30-40 knot low level jet develops. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 9 PM for the offshore waters, midnight for the nearshore waters, and mid morning Thursday for the bays. In addition to strong winds from 30-35 knots, seas will climb to around 10-12 feet. These hazardous conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Isolated showers will be possible over the waters today with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely on Thursday. By Friday winds will weaken to light to moderate levels and shift north to northeasterly. Seas will gradually subside. Mainly weak or weak to moderate winds are expected through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 70 65 82 64 / 10 40 20 0 Victoria 68 62 76 61 / 10 60 80 10 Laredo 60 57 79 60 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 68 62 82 61 / 20 30 20 0 Rockport 69 64 76 63 / 10 40 50 0 Cotulla 63 58 78 57 / 20 20 10 0 Kingsville 69 64 83 63 / 20 30 20 0 Navy Corpus 72 67 79 66 / 10 40 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275.

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Port Lavaca
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Wed -- 01:41 AM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Wed -- 12:05 AM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:51 PM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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