Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quail Creek, TX

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Strong cold front expected Tuesday, bringing colder air into the region for Wednesday.

- Lower to mid 30s possible over most of South Texas next Thursday morning (see discussion for probabilities).

The long-term forecast begins with rain chances gradually diminishing through Monday. In the aftermath, southwesterly surface and 850-mb winds usher in drier conditions, plenty of sunshine, and significantly warmer temperatures. Highs are expected to soar well above normal for this time of year, with Monday's temperatures reaching the low 80s. For context, climatological normals, for early December range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

This warm spell will be brief, as a strong cold front pushes through South Texas on Tuesday. In its wake, winds will quickly shift to the north-northwest, causing temperatures to plummet. Overnight lows Tuesday are forecast to drop into the mid-30s to low 40s. Even colder conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with most of South Texas seeing lows in the 30s. Freezing temperatures are possible across parts of the northern Coastal Plains and Brush Country, with probabilities of sub-freezing temperatures ranging from 40-85% in areas including Choke Canyon, Beevile, and Victoria.

Following a couple of cooler days, another warming trend is expected by the end of the work week as high pressure builds back over the region, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Rain chances remain minimal throughout the period, with sparse coverage expected until the front arrives. Even then, rain probabilities are low, capped at 20-30%.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

A mixture of MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the cycle across area terminals with patchy light to occasionally moderate rain. Winds have been decreasing across the region and will generally remain out of the north and northeast through the evening before becoming light and variable by early Sunday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Strong northeast winds will persist along the coast through midday today before weakening as the pressure gradient relaxes. A warm front will move northward across the waters early Sunday with weak onshore winds developing in its wake by Sunday afternoon.
Widespread rain can be expected Today becoming scattered tonight and Sunday. Rain chances are in the forecast through Tuesday, with low chances (10-20%) over the nearshore to medium chances (20-60%) offshore. Winds on Tuesday will begin to increase out of the north in the wake of a cold front traversing the region, becoming strong to very strong Tuesday night. There is a low-to- medium chance (30-60%) of winds reaching Gale Force during this time. Winds will diminish to weak to moderate on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds across the region.

FIRE
Issued at 125 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

A strong cold front is expected to traverse the region Tuesday, bringing cooler, drier air into South Texas, with minimum relative humidity values near 20-30% expected Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will remain below criteria, although, cannot rule out some isolated gusts between 20-25 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time, though with relative humidity values at criteria and some brief instances of higher winds will be possible, will need to continue to monitor in the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 65 54 71 61 / 30 40 20 10 Victoria 60 49 70 56 / 50 30 40 10 Laredo 54 50 66 56 / 40 40 20 0 Alice 62 50 71 58 / 30 40 30 0 Rockport 66 54 70 61 / 50 40 30 10 Cotulla 53 50 67 54 / 60 30 20 0 Kingsville 65 52 72 60 / 20 40 30 10 Navy Corpus 68 59 71 65 / 40 40 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275.