Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quail Creek, TX

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Heat Risk remaining at Major/Extreme Monday, but decreasing from Tuesday.

- Low chances (10-20%) for rainfall Wednesday along the Rio Grande.

Out ahead of the upper-level trough that will move from the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains, a surface low will form over southern Colorado and slowly move eastward through the day. A front will extend south from this surface low through the Texas Panhandle and into the Edwards Plateau. Out ahead of this front, southerly winds will continue to feed Gulf-rich moisture.
Temperatures Monday afternoon will continue to climb into the 100s across the relatively less-moist airmass over the Rio Grande Plains and into the 90s along the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Heat indices Monday afternoon will span from the 110- 115F range across the Brush County and in the low 100s elsewhere, leading to a Major/Extreme Heat Risk.

The aforementioned front will move through South Texas on Tuesday, with winds switching from a southeasterly direction to more easterly. PoPs do increase with the frontal passage, but unfortunately ensemble models continue to place much of South Texas in 10-15% PoPs. By Wednesday, a coastal trough will remain over northern Mexico and along the Mexican Gulf coastline. This zone of convergence and higher PWATs (1.7"-1.8") in the RGV will allow for showers to form along the Rio Grande and into the northern Mexican states. Webb County will be in the northern periphery of this area, thus giving them the best chance for precipitation 15-20% on Wednesday. That said, the NBM is still showing medium chances (30- 50% chance) of rainfall in excess of one hundredth for Laredo.

Surface winds will continue to remain easterly through Thursday afternoon, allowing the Heat Risk to fall to Minor/Moderate.
Thursday night, winds will switch to be more southeasterly, increasing heat indices back into the low 100s by Saturday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Various MVFR cloud decks spread across South Texas and will continue through most of this morning. Sustained southeasterly winds around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will redevelop through the afternoon and early evening hours. Another blanket of MVFR ceilings is expected to develop this evening through the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms over east Mexico have a low (20-40%) chance of lingering into the Brush Country and impact LRD/COT between 00-06Z. Confidence is low on thunderstorm coverage but have included a VCSH.

MARINE
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Moderate (BF 4) south to southeasterly winds will continue through tonight before increasing slightly to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Sunday with seas 4 to 5 feet. Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
southeasterly winds will increase seas to 5-6 ft on Monday.
Closer to the barrier islands, winds will gust up to BF 6 at times, resulting in choppy conditions over the inland bays. By Tuesday, winds will shift to be more easterly at gentle to moderate strength (BF 3-4) with seas decreasing to 3-4 ft by Thursday. Thursday night, winds will switch to be more onshore and increasing to moderate strength (BF 4).

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Minimum relative humidity this weekend will remain around 30% or greater, negating elevated fire weather conditions across South Texas. Surface southeasterly winds will only range from 10-20 mph as well. There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms moving into the Brush Country from Mexico tonight.
Energy Release Component is forecast to increase to above the 97th percentile immediately along the Rio Grande, while generally remaining above the 80th percentile across the Brush Country. Min relative humidity on Monday will bottom out to 15-20% across the Rio Grande Plains, and down to 10-20% on Tuesday with the frontal passage, while remaining in the 20-40% range across the Brush Country. Given this, an elevated fire risk will be contained to Webb County through Tuesday. From Wednesday, drier easterly winds will reduce Min RH's across the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads to 20-30% through Thursday. 20-ft winds are looking to be weak across much of South Texas, limiting the fire risk through next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 91 78 90 78 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 104 78 104 80 / 0 30 0 0 Alice 99 76 97 77 / 0 30 0 0 Rockport 88 78 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 77 105 78 / 10 30 0 0 Kingsville 95 77 94 77 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 79 86 80 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.