Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jones Creek, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The main weather stories over the next several days are warm and humid conditions with increasing rain and storm chances. A mid to upper level ridge axis is currently to our east; therefore a quasi- zonal flow aloft will prevail in the coming days. This pattern will continue to bring multiple disturbances/impulses of energy that will persist well into the upcoming week.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly cloudy, warm, humid with breezy conditions, especially over the coastal counties. Several disturbances along with a surface low centered over the central/south Plains will result in stronger WAA, an increase in Gulf moisture and increased surface winds. With broad theat-e advection spreading inland, and good isentropic lifting on the 305K layer; cannot rule out some streamer showers and isolated storms through the weekend. The capping inversion is progged to be weaker late Saturday into Sunday; therefore, the best window for this activity looks to be during this time frame. With surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s; get ready for humid/muggy days ahead. Highs will generally be in the low 80s to low 90s with heat indices up to 100F.

Next week... a stronger shortwave trough will deepen across the Rockies on Sunday, ejecting multiple impulses of energy ahead of it. At the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to move southward into north central TX early in the week. This messy and unsettled pattern will provide enough forcing to keep daily rain and storm chances across SE TX. At the moment, the best scenario for scattered to widespread showers and storms is forecast to be from the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame with the passage of a stronger disturbance. We will continue to monitor this period as there is a potential for excessive rainfall. There is still uncertainty in the timing and the location of the heaviest rainfall as it will strictly depend on the evolution and translation of the shortwave and the location of the surface boundary. Models are not in good agreement on timing, but the general consensus suggests rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches, generally north of I-10 from Sunday through the end of the next week. It is too far out, and this rainfall forecast WILL CHANGE. As of now, we suggest you focus on the potential and stay informed as unsettled weather is expected to continue through the end of the upcoming week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Other than some low cigs in the Brazos Valley and a few areas of low cig/vis elsewhere, we expect mostly VFR conditions today into this evening. Winds will increase from the S to SE today, with sustained winds expected to approach 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots. Cigs are expected to decrease overnight, with possible MVFR across our northern zones after 06UTC.

MARINE
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Moderate onshore winds and seas up to 5 ft will continue this evening and persist through the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution this weekend. Winds and seas may reach advisory levels early next week as several disturbances move through the region.

Will continue to monitor coastal conditions as persistent southerly winds could potentially result in localized minor coastal flooding, particularly during times of high tide. Latest P-ETSS guidance shows water levels at or above 3.5 ft MLLW during high tides starting tonight and continuing through early Monday. Strong rip currents are also expected. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday morning.

JM



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 89 70 88 74 / 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 90 73 88 76 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 75 84 78 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.