Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jones Creek, TX

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

The progressive/active weather pattern will continue into Mon with the middle of the week becoming drier and much cooler; then by the end of the week, warming temperatures and maybe the return of some low POPs.

By Mon, SE TX will be on the back side of the exiting coastal trough with a warm/humid air mass in place across the area. The best chance for showers/thunderstorms are going to be mainly along the coast and our Gulf waters. Highs to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
But north of the CWA, another surface low is progged to develop/move across the Southern Plains in conjunction with another short wave at the mid/upper levels. This system is expected to be weaker (then the weekend one), but should be enough to help drag a cold front through the state and our CWA Mon night. With the deepest moisture remaining at to just off the coast, POPs with this FROPA should remain at/near the coast. The main issue with the front looks to be post-frontal as cold Canadian air settles over the region. There's a good chance the northern portions of the FA could see our first freeze of the season Tues night (and likely again Weds night as well).

As the strong surface high transitions east of the region Thurs and Fri, look for slowly warming temperatures to end the week. Moisture returning could also herald the return of low POPs by Fri/Fri night.
41

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

As the evening hours approach, expect a downward trend in ceilings and visibilities as scattered rain showers continue to push through Southeast Texas. Widespread IFR ceilings are expected overnight along with the potential for VLIFR ceilings. On top of that, patchy fog may cause decreased visibilities as well outside of the passing rain showers. It's difficult to time out the exact window for the highest coverage of rain showers, but the best consensus looks to generally be Sunday late morning into the afternoon (~15Z to 00Z). Additionally, a rather strong southwest to northeast oriented LLJ will develop over the region and lead to LLWS generally between 35-40 kts on Sunday afternoon. IFR ceilings will linger throughout the day on Sunday, but there is potential for some western sites to see a brief return to MVFR before sunset.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 337 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Moderate (to occasionally strong) E/SE winds will persist across the coastal waters this evening. With the SCA expiring earlier this aft- ernoon, have gone with Small Craft Exercise Caution flags for all of our Gulf waters through this evening. Winds/seas are expected to de- crease overnight as the gradient weakens further
Otherwise
shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase tonight, through tomorrow. The increased low-level moisture and weaker winds could be favorable for the development of sea fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning...and again tomorrow night/early Mon morning.

A strong cold front remains in tap to push into the Gulf during the very early morning hours of Tues. This should end the threat of sea fog...as well as strong NW/N winds and elevated seas in the wake of the front. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely going to be needed Tues/Weds. 41

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 47 65 54 79 / 30 40 0 0 Houston (IAH) 49 68 60 78 / 70 50 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 59 71 64 73 / 60 50 50 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.