Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jones Creek, TX
November 28, 2023 6:03 PM CST (00:03 UTC)
Sunrise 6:54AM Sunset 5:25PM Moonrise 6:29PM Moonset 8:18AM
GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 314 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
This afternoon..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Showers likely after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms late.
Thursday..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Showers.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming southwest around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Showers likely.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
This afternoon..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Showers likely after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms late.
Thursday..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Showers.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming southwest around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Showers likely.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 314 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light northeast to east winds and lowering seas can be expected for the rest of today through Wednesday. Strengthening southerly flow is expected to begin late Wednesday with widespread showers and Thunderstorms developing across the area Wednesday night into Friday. Thursday's strong south winds will likely lead to a small craft advisory, and gusts could approach gale force. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday resulting in a shift to north to northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend.
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light northeast to east winds and lowering seas can be expected for the rest of today through Wednesday. Strengthening southerly flow is expected to begin late Wednesday with widespread showers and Thunderstorms developing across the area Wednesday night into Friday. Thursday's strong south winds will likely lead to a small craft advisory, and gusts could approach gale force. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday resulting in a shift to north to northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHGX 282300 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 500 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Surface high pressure, currently centered over the ArkLaTex region will continue to move east tonight, shifting winds to the east/southeast. Tonight's cloud coverage should be less than this morning's. Therefore, a slightly cooler night can be expected with lows mainly into the upper 30s and upper 40s.
Dry weather continues on Wednesday as a weak mid/upper level ridge moves overhead. At the surface, return flow from the departing high and tight pressure gradient due to a robust mid/upper level trough over the desert SW/west TX will filter in southerly warmer flow and more Gulf moisture into southeast TX. With increasing theta-e and PWs, clouds will be on the increase from south to north during the day. Rain chances return to the region as early as Wednesday evening as the boundary layer becomes more saturated and dynamics aloft increase in advance of the aforementioned trough moving over TX. In addition, tight pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions after Wednesday night with the highest gusts over the coast and Gulf waters. Wind Advisory will likely be needed along the barrier islands. Unsettled weather begins Wednesday evening/night and continues through at least Thursday night. More details in the long term section.
JM
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Thursday is shaping up to be quite the active day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, so I apologize in advance for how long I'm going to spend talking about it here...just want to make sure y'all have as much information as possible! I'll include a quick summary here for those that don't want to sift through all of the meteorological jargon. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as an upper level disturbance taps into deeper Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. All severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and please be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings. Southeast TX is under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Rain gradually comes to an end late Thursday night/early Friday morning as a cold front pushes through the region. The next two paragraphs will break down the rainfall and severe weather potential for Thursday...onward we go!
A surface trough currently in the Bay of Campeche continues to deepen with deeper moisture clearly evident on water vapor satellite imagery. As a mid to upper level trough sweeps through the Four Corners region, surface low pressure is generated via lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on late Wednesday. The tightening pressure gradient creates a funnel that allows the moisture from that surface trough to surge into Southeast TX. This eventually leads to PW values reaching the 1.4"-1.7" range by Thursday afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.48"). This means that there is a risk for locally heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms that develop. The flood risk looks relatively slim though and may only pose a risk in flood prone areas underneath a storm producing high rainfall rates. Between Thursday morning and Thursday night, we are expecting widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" with isolated higher amount possible. Most of Southeast TX is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Let's move on to the severe weather threat...
As the mid to upper level trough moves through north TX on Thursday, it becomes negatively tilted which is indicative of more than sufficient vertical wind shear. Sure enough, a 45-55 kt LLJ (oriented from SW to NE) streaming overhead on Thursday morning/afternoon offers plenty of wind shear. I mentioned the direction of the winds aloft because at the surface we'll have southerly to southeasterly winds...and pretty gusty winds at that! A Wind Advisory looks likely at least along the barrier islands on Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds aloft means veering winds with height, which is not only indicative of WAA but also adds directional wind sheer into the equation to pair with the speed shear. So, when we take a look at some forecast soundings, it's not a surprise that the hodographs have the classic curved look that usually indicate the potential for rotating updrafts (tornadic potential). Here are some additional parameters that point towards favorable severe weather potential on Thursday: MUCAPE ~1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, 700mb-500mb lapse rates between 7-8°C/km, 0-6km bulk shear ~40-50 knots, 0-1km SRH greater than 300 m²/s², 0-3km SRH greater than 400 m²/s², 0-1km shear greater than 30 knots, LCL heights around 3000 ft, and an axis of 65°F dew points coinciding with an axis of instability mainly west of I-45/south of I-10. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed essentially all of Southeast TX in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so please be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and to have multiple ways to receive warnings.
A cold front associated with the previously mentioned surface low pushes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning and brings a temporary end to the showers/storms inland. However, model guidance is still hinting at some kind of lingering boundary persisting off of the coast, which will leave rain chances in the forecast for coastal areas going into the weekend. This boundary may drift northward on Saturday and increase rain chances for inland locations as well. There remains some discrepancy on timing of the second cold front that clears things out completely. The Euro and Canadian push the cold front through on early Sunday morning...meanwhile the GFS says the front doesn't come through until Sunday night/early Monday morning. Either way, there is high pressure and much drier air behind FROPA #2, it's just a matter of when that'll happen as that has an impact on both the PoPs and temperatures for Sunday and Monday. There still remains a 8-10°F spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the deterministic NBM. As a result, I went with straight NBM for temperatures over the weekend, which keeps highs in the upper 60s and lows mainly in the mid 50s on Saturday night and in the upper 40s on Sunday night. I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's high temperatures trended down from the upper 60s over the coming days if an earlier FROPA continues to look likely. Overnight temperatures early next week look fairly chilly with lows solidly in the 40s.
--------------------
Just a reminder that the KHGX WSR-88D radar went down for maintenance on November 27th and will be out of service for approximately two weeks from that date as it is receiving an important upgrade to extend its lifespan. During its downtime, adjacent radars are available for use including the local Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TIAH and THOU) and other WSR-88D radars including KGRK, KSHV, KLCH, KPOE, KEWX, and KCRP.
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Light, variable winds and VFR conditions should prevail overnight.
Southeasterly winds and BKN cirrus decks develop across the region late Wednesday morning. Lowers decks fill in Wednesday evening as light showers develop from west to east overnight.
03
MARINE
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Light winds and low seas will prevail going into Wednesday. On Wednesday night is when onshore flow begins to strengthen ahead of an approaching disturbance. Winds and seas begin to increase going into Thursday with winds solidly in Small Craft Advisory territory with gale force gusts possible through the afternoon hours. Seas could reach as high as 9 to 11 feet in the Gulf waters due to the moderate to strong southeasterly flow. These hazardous marine conditions along with scattered to widespread showers and storms will persist into late Thursday night/early Friday morning when a cold front pushes through the waters leading to a period of offshore flow. The front may stall offshore leading to additional showers/storms being possible over the Gulf waters over the weekend.
Mariners can expect at least a Small Craft Advisory to be in effect from Wednesday night through late Thursday night.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 42 64 57 69 / 0 0 70 100 Houston (IAH) 44 66 58 70 / 0 0 70 100 Galveston (GLS) 54 67 62 70 / 0 0 50 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 500 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Surface high pressure, currently centered over the ArkLaTex region will continue to move east tonight, shifting winds to the east/southeast. Tonight's cloud coverage should be less than this morning's. Therefore, a slightly cooler night can be expected with lows mainly into the upper 30s and upper 40s.
Dry weather continues on Wednesday as a weak mid/upper level ridge moves overhead. At the surface, return flow from the departing high and tight pressure gradient due to a robust mid/upper level trough over the desert SW/west TX will filter in southerly warmer flow and more Gulf moisture into southeast TX. With increasing theta-e and PWs, clouds will be on the increase from south to north during the day. Rain chances return to the region as early as Wednesday evening as the boundary layer becomes more saturated and dynamics aloft increase in advance of the aforementioned trough moving over TX. In addition, tight pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions after Wednesday night with the highest gusts over the coast and Gulf waters. Wind Advisory will likely be needed along the barrier islands. Unsettled weather begins Wednesday evening/night and continues through at least Thursday night. More details in the long term section.
JM
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Thursday is shaping up to be quite the active day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, so I apologize in advance for how long I'm going to spend talking about it here...just want to make sure y'all have as much information as possible! I'll include a quick summary here for those that don't want to sift through all of the meteorological jargon. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as an upper level disturbance taps into deeper Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. All severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and please be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings. Southeast TX is under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Rain gradually comes to an end late Thursday night/early Friday morning as a cold front pushes through the region. The next two paragraphs will break down the rainfall and severe weather potential for Thursday...onward we go!
A surface trough currently in the Bay of Campeche continues to deepen with deeper moisture clearly evident on water vapor satellite imagery. As a mid to upper level trough sweeps through the Four Corners region, surface low pressure is generated via lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on late Wednesday. The tightening pressure gradient creates a funnel that allows the moisture from that surface trough to surge into Southeast TX. This eventually leads to PW values reaching the 1.4"-1.7" range by Thursday afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.48"). This means that there is a risk for locally heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms that develop. The flood risk looks relatively slim though and may only pose a risk in flood prone areas underneath a storm producing high rainfall rates. Between Thursday morning and Thursday night, we are expecting widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" with isolated higher amount possible. Most of Southeast TX is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Let's move on to the severe weather threat...
As the mid to upper level trough moves through north TX on Thursday, it becomes negatively tilted which is indicative of more than sufficient vertical wind shear. Sure enough, a 45-55 kt LLJ (oriented from SW to NE) streaming overhead on Thursday morning/afternoon offers plenty of wind shear. I mentioned the direction of the winds aloft because at the surface we'll have southerly to southeasterly winds...and pretty gusty winds at that! A Wind Advisory looks likely at least along the barrier islands on Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds aloft means veering winds with height, which is not only indicative of WAA but also adds directional wind sheer into the equation to pair with the speed shear. So, when we take a look at some forecast soundings, it's not a surprise that the hodographs have the classic curved look that usually indicate the potential for rotating updrafts (tornadic potential). Here are some additional parameters that point towards favorable severe weather potential on Thursday: MUCAPE ~1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, 700mb-500mb lapse rates between 7-8°C/km, 0-6km bulk shear ~40-50 knots, 0-1km SRH greater than 300 m²/s², 0-3km SRH greater than 400 m²/s², 0-1km shear greater than 30 knots, LCL heights around 3000 ft, and an axis of 65°F dew points coinciding with an axis of instability mainly west of I-45/south of I-10. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed essentially all of Southeast TX in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so please be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and to have multiple ways to receive warnings.
A cold front associated with the previously mentioned surface low pushes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning and brings a temporary end to the showers/storms inland. However, model guidance is still hinting at some kind of lingering boundary persisting off of the coast, which will leave rain chances in the forecast for coastal areas going into the weekend. This boundary may drift northward on Saturday and increase rain chances for inland locations as well. There remains some discrepancy on timing of the second cold front that clears things out completely. The Euro and Canadian push the cold front through on early Sunday morning...meanwhile the GFS says the front doesn't come through until Sunday night/early Monday morning. Either way, there is high pressure and much drier air behind FROPA #2, it's just a matter of when that'll happen as that has an impact on both the PoPs and temperatures for Sunday and Monday. There still remains a 8-10°F spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the deterministic NBM. As a result, I went with straight NBM for temperatures over the weekend, which keeps highs in the upper 60s and lows mainly in the mid 50s on Saturday night and in the upper 40s on Sunday night. I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's high temperatures trended down from the upper 60s over the coming days if an earlier FROPA continues to look likely. Overnight temperatures early next week look fairly chilly with lows solidly in the 40s.
--------------------
Just a reminder that the KHGX WSR-88D radar went down for maintenance on November 27th and will be out of service for approximately two weeks from that date as it is receiving an important upgrade to extend its lifespan. During its downtime, adjacent radars are available for use including the local Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TIAH and THOU) and other WSR-88D radars including KGRK, KSHV, KLCH, KPOE, KEWX, and KCRP.
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Light, variable winds and VFR conditions should prevail overnight.
Southeasterly winds and BKN cirrus decks develop across the region late Wednesday morning. Lowers decks fill in Wednesday evening as light showers develop from west to east overnight.
03
MARINE
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Light winds and low seas will prevail going into Wednesday. On Wednesday night is when onshore flow begins to strengthen ahead of an approaching disturbance. Winds and seas begin to increase going into Thursday with winds solidly in Small Craft Advisory territory with gale force gusts possible through the afternoon hours. Seas could reach as high as 9 to 11 feet in the Gulf waters due to the moderate to strong southeasterly flow. These hazardous marine conditions along with scattered to widespread showers and storms will persist into late Thursday night/early Friday morning when a cold front pushes through the waters leading to a period of offshore flow. The front may stall offshore leading to additional showers/storms being possible over the Gulf waters over the weekend.
Mariners can expect at least a Small Craft Advisory to be in effect from Wednesday night through late Thursday night.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 42 64 57 69 / 0 0 70 100 Houston (IAH) 44 66 58 70 / 0 0 70 100 Galveston (GLS) 54 67 62 70 / 0 0 50 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| EMAT2 | 17 mi | 63 min | E 8.9G | 57°F | 58°F | 30.30 | ||
| FPST2 | 20 mi | 63 min | ENE 8.9G | 57°F | 59°F | 30.29 | ||
| KBQX | 32 mi | 28 min | 6G | 61°F | 45°F | |||
| LUIT2 | 33 mi | 63 min | ENE 7G | 57°F | 59°F | 30.31 | ||
| MBET2 | 45 mi | 63 min | ESE 8.9G | 59°F | 63°F | 30.27 | ||
| PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX | 47 mi | 63 min | 58°F | 57°F | 30.31 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBYY BAY CITY RGNL,TX | 19 sm | 28 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 32°F | 47% | 30.32 |
Wind History from BYY
(wind in knots)Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:54 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:20 AM CST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 06:17 PM CST 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:54 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:20 AM CST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 06:17 PM CST 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport Harbor, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.8 |
| 9 am |
| -0.9 |
| 10 am |
| -0.9 |
| 11 am |
| -0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:54 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:15 AM CST -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 PM CST 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:54 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:15 AM CST -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 PM CST 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport Harbor, Texas (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.2 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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