Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victoria, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to above normal temperatures through Saturday with max temperatures flirting with records, ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s Friday and Saturday.
There is high confidence that a strong cold front will pass through South Texas Sunday morning, bringing only a very low (<10%) chance of showers over the Coastal Plains briefly with the passage within the short time window moisture is around normal and has enough lift.

Multiple impactful hazards will be in play before and after the cold front passage Sunday morning:

- Before (Potential Minor Coastal Flooding & Fog): Due to the full moon and moderate southerly winds, we'll need to continue to monitor beach conditions on potential minor coastal flooding leading up to the front's arrival each evening's high tide through Saturday. P- ETSS guidance does show water levels nearing 2.0 ft MSL at Aransas Pass, but NGOFS does not.
Limiting factors include not as persistently long swell periods over 8 seconds and not as directly onshore flow. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and low-mid 60s dewpoints will increase the threat for fog development over the inland Coastal Plains and southern Brush Country early Friday and Saturday mornings.

- After (Fire, Marine, Cold): Strong winds will follow behind the front, looking at sustained of 20-25 mph inland on Sunday and over 30 mph over the waters Sunday into Monday morning.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed with a shorter- fused Gale Watch/Warning when winds are the strongest and frequently gusting over 35 knots. Over land, the strong winds will combine with relative humidity of 20-40%, resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region.
The fire weather threat will likely linger into the middle of next week as minimum relative humidity drops below 30% each afternoon but winds diminish. Cold air advection, along with efficient radiational cooling, will promote 15- 20 degrees below normal lows early Monday and Tuesday morning. We're looking at a 50-80% chance for early morning lows on Tuesday reaching the 30s across a large portion of inland South Texas.

A warming trend returns Tuesday as onshore flow returns with minimal rain chances.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions will persist through this evening with generally light southeasterly winds. Mostly clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling tonight. I'm not as convinced with widespread fog overnight into early Friday morning as this morning, due to slightly stronger winds. However, I do think there will be drops at fog prone sites of ALI/VCT between 09-14Z. Then the typical ground fog, occasionally taller over the runways at CRP. VFR conditions prevail following by 15Z with south to southeasterly winds around 12 knots near the end of the forecast.

MARINE
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Light southeasterly winds today will become a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) out of the south to southwest late tonight and continue through Saturday night. A strong cold front will push through Sunday morning, bringing strong to near Gale force (BF 6-7)
north to northeasterly winds in its wake through Monday morning.
Seas in the wake of the front will also build significantly to 10-15 feet. There's a low chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front on Sunday. Conditions are expected to improve by late Monday afternoon with seas subsiding below 7 feet and winds diminishing below 20 knots. Generally, moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeasterly winds will follow into the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A strong cold front will push across South Texas Sunday morning, creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the wake Sunday afternoon. Northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping to around 20 percent, will cause a significant increase in the fire weather risk. Although winds decrease during the work week, minimum relative humidity values will continue to drop into the teens (Mon) and 20s (Tue-Wed), keeping at least elevated fire weather conditions intact through the middle of next week each afternoon. In addition, Energy Release Component (ERC) values are extremely high, ranging from the 80-95th percentile. Sunday will be the greatest threat for fire weather, with still warranted elevated conditions following into midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 62 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 59 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 67 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 59 94 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 59 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.