Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quintana, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Expect activity to be confined to the coast where a pocket of moisture convergence and CAPE both reside.

Another round of showers and storms is anticipated for Sunday as we continue to see PWAT values in the 2.0-2.5" range. Expect showers and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon hours as daytime heating kicks in. Additionally, hi- res models are showing a diffuse backdoor front working its way into the area from the north.
While, initially, activity will gradually move inland from the Gulf --as the diffuse front moves in, expect storm motion to transition with storms pushing slowly back towards the coast. Sounding analysis reflects an environment suitable for efficient warm rain processes, so could see instances of flash flooding with storms that produce heavier rainfall rates (especially in areas that have already received decent rainfall).

The wet pattern will continue into next week as SE texas resides in the southern periphery of an area of high pressure that will move into the northern CONUS and on the west side of an area of low pressure in the SE CONUS. 500mb analysis shows a series of vorticity maxima moving from east to west into our area. As it interacts with deep moisture, upper-level forcing, and low shear, expect to see showers and storms become more scattered to numerous in coverage. This will result in multiple days of at least a marginal excessive rainfall risk (with Monday featuring a SLIGHT risk for most of the area). The most favorable timing for convective development and heavier rainfall will be during the day with peak heating and the aid of the sea breeze.

The pattern will transition and become less active by Thursday as hot and dry conditions return to the region. Expect this hotter and drier pattern to continue into the weekend as high pressure builds in. While most of the area should remain rain-free, persistent southerly flow could result in isolated, diurnally- driven activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

Bailey

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Have some lingering shra activity along/south of I-10 early this evening which should continue dissipating with the loss of heating. A moist airmass remains parked across the region and anticipate a mostly diurnally driven trend in terms of shra/tstm chances (precip developing offshore late at night then transitioning inland during the day). Most problematic aspect is narrowing down the most favored time period(s) for any individual TAF site. After coordination with CWSU, we'll be highlighting the afternoon time period for most inland sites. Mainly VFR conditions will persist - though some brief cig & vsby reductions and gusty winds will be possible in/near any stronger cells. 47

MARINE
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft will persist tonight and into the upcoming week. The main concern will be showers and storms developing late night and into the morning hours, before moving inland during the day. Highest chances are expected Monday into Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms.
Elevated winds and seas can be expected near/around any stronger storms. Drier conditions along with light onshore winds resume after midweek.

Bailey/JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 76 92 76 90 / 20 30 30 70 Houston (IAH) 78 91 78 89 / 30 60 40 80 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 82 88 / 30 60 50 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.