Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quintana, TX

DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Radar has blossomed early this afternoon. Scattered showers with isolated storms will become more widespread across southeast TX in the next several hours. The combination of decent theta-e advection, daytime heating, moderate to strong instability and increased moisture (sfc dewpoints into the upper 70s to mid 80s degF range) will support an active afternoon. In fact, latest models show PWs running into the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range. This range is near the Max percentile of climatology for today. While these showers and storms continue to develop from south to north, we are also keeping an eye out to the storms near the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This complex of thunderstorms will gradually shift east- southeast across the region by mid/late afternoon. Overall, the weather will continue to be active through at least sunset. Some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.
In fact, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in placed by WPC for most of SE TX today. The severe weather risk is minimal but non-zero. Storms may become strong to marginally severe, especially late this afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds will be the primary risk. Stay weather aware, especially if you have outdoor plans.

Weather conditions become more stable early this week as weak ridging/subsidence prevails over the region. However, there will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms throughout the long term period. The mid to upper-lvl ridge centered across the southern CONUS/Rockies will expand westward. This pattern will keep SE TX under a messy-troughiness flow aloft. Moderate forcing aloft (due to these subtle impulses of energy), diurnal heating and the increase of a warmer air and deep Gulf moisture into the region will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the coast in the morning and further inland in the afternoon/early evening. Not everyday will be a washout, and not everyone will see rain/storms; however, we're already in summer where this typical pattern of scattered activity prevails.

Warm and humid conditions continue through the week with highs mainly in the low 90s. Despite temperatures in the 90s, this is near to slightly below normal for mid/late June standards. Nights, on the other hand, will remain warm and muggy with above normal temperatures. That is lows mainly in the in the mid 70s to low 80s (coast).

JM

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms, with a few embedded strong thunderstorms, is making its way through the region. It has already passed through CLL and UTS, and is either passing through currently or will shortly at CXO, IAH, HOU, and SGR. The line is moving fairly quickly, and will likely be through LBX/GLS by 2z.
Wind gusts around 20-30kt will be possible with any of the embedded stronger storms along with reduced visibility due to rainfall. There will be a northwesterly windshift once the storms move through, but within an hour or two will return to southeasterly flow. This southeasterly flow will continue through the remainder of the period.

A period of MVFR conditions with CIGs between 1500-2500ft will likely develop overnight tonight and continue through Monday morning thanks to wet grounds and light winds. These lower CIGs will scatter out by 14-15z giving way to continued VFR conditions through the remainder of the day. Daytime heating and high moisture content in the air will result in additional pop-up afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow. Can't determine exactly where these storms will pop-up, so have put in a PROB30 for most TAF sites. Generally speaking, the storms will likely initialize closer to the coast by the late morning/early afternoon and then slowly move northwards through the early evening.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Persistent light to moderate onshore flow is expected this week.
Winds may reach Caution Flags (15-20 knots) conditions at times.
Seas will generally remain into the 2 to 4 ft range this week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with the higher chances along the coast. Elevated winds and seas can be expected near/around storms. In fact, seas are progged to build up to 6 ft towards the end of the week as a surface coastal trough develops and moves along the Deep South TX/Middle TX coast. Weak waterspouts cannot be ruled out near any strong storms.

Beachgoers: Stay weather alert and follow the Beach Patrol Flag Warning System. A moderate to high risk of rip currents will persist today and continue through the week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 75 90 75 91 / 20 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 90 77 90 / 40 50 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 / 30 50 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355.