Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quintana, TX

DISCUSSION
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The general pattern through at least midweek will be eastern Texas sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and another ridge over SE CONUS resulting in troughing in between. This will result a continued pattern of unsettled weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (fueled by high PWATs near 1.6-2"). Today will likely have the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms (through at least midweek)
as an outflow boundary originating from a cluster of thunderstorms that is expected to develop to the north later this morning sweeps through our region. Likely start to see some isolated showers and storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon along the coast, then see the increase in coverage across most of the area during the afternoon/evening as that boundary swings through. Locally heavy rainfall is possible again today with isolated stronger storms producing 1-2"+ of rain, and WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across the entire area.
3-hr FFG is generally around 2-4" across the area, but decreases significantly in portions of Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston counties to 0.2-2". So, any additional heavy rainfall in these areas will likely lead to at least minor flooding, and we will need to monitor closely for flash flooding.

With the continued weakness/troughing aloft and high PWATs, daily showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the remainder of the week. The upper-level pattern begins to change by Thursday as an upper-level low swings through the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Guidances in uncertain how far south this upper-level low digs, but it could lead to increased thunderstorm coverage in our area Thursday into Friday. The upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been set up to our west all week is expected to slide into the Southern Plains/Midwest by the end of the week. This will likely help reduce the chances of showers and storms, but high PWATs and daytime heating may still "win out" resulting in isolated activity.

High temperatures through this entire week will likely be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, though afternoon thunderstorm activity may result in locally lower temperatures for where ever they pop-up.
Afternoon max heat indices will likely hover near 100 degrees through this week as well. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s inland, and then low 80s along the coast.

Fowler

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions mostly expected through at least late evening followed by a mix of MVFR stratus (mainly north of the metro area)
later tonight. Will probably see some iso/sct activity begin developing south of I-10 and offshore between 12-15z, followed by an expansion/smattering of shra/tsra further inland in the 16-19z timeframe. One thing we'll have to keep an eye on is the remnants or outflow from tonight's storms in OK and north Tx that may sink into our region during the day Sunday and provide a focusing mechanism and convergent zone for additional afternoon activity.
Some of the storms today were on the heavy/strong side, and would anticipate that possibility again Sunday. 47

MARINE
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to occasional moderate onshore flow will persist through this week with speeds generally around 10-15kt and occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas will continue to be around 2-4ft. There will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms that may result in locally higher winds and seas. Chances will be highest during the morning and early afternoon hours, then the activity is expected to move inland through the rest of the day.

The persistent onshore flow may result in an increased risk of strong rip currents by midweek.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 20 0 Houston (IAH) 90 75 90 77 / 50 20 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 80 88 81 / 40 20 50 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.