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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 901 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 901 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..The large high pressure ridge along the atlantic seaboard will push farther offshore through Friday as a low pressure system develops over the central u.s. As the low tracks northeast through this weekend, its associated cold front will approach florida late Sunday, and pass through the local atlantic waters Monday. High pressure will build in behind across the southeast u.s. Through early next week.

Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 010157 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 857 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION,

UPDATE
Issued at 857 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High pressure ridge extends from the mid Atlantic and SE seaboard well offshore into the adjacent Atlantic, producing light-moderate onshore/east wind flow. KMLB 88D imagery shows low-topped light to moderate showers have been developing well offshore the FL east coast since late afternoon. To the west, high clouds continue to increase overhead as forecast in the omnipresent southern branch of the jet stream.

Marine showers currently moving NW and are expected to approach, but remain a little offshore the FL east coast through sunrise.
Not nearly as chilly across the interior overnight, with mins ranging from the U50s far north to the M60s along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Forecast remains unchanged with only cosmetic tweaks to the grids for tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 857 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Overnight...ESE winds 10-15kt with seas 2-3ft near shore and up to 4ft well offshore. Forecast is in fine shape.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 857 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR. Prevailing think BKN-OVC250 with a few scraps of marine SC SCT030-035 MLB-SUA overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Friday...500mb ridging starts to build northward as surface high pressure translates seaward off the Atlantic coast. A warm front will surges north stretching from central Mississippi to the coastal Carolinas in the afternoon. Trailing behind, an active cold front with shower and storm activity is expected to approach the Deep South. Locally, mid level ridging helps to keep rain chances well north or offshore over the Atlantic on Friday. Another day with a mix of clouds and sunshine is expected, along with a noticeable climb in temperatures. Forecast highs range from the low 80s north to the mid 80s south.

Friday Night-Sunday...The pattern aloft amplifies a bit through Sat night as the mid-level ridge to the south shifts into the western Caribbean and a trough swings through the central US. The trough then begins to flatten out the ridge to the south as it pasts east of the Mississippi late Sun. A cluster of surface low pressure systems developing from the central U.S. to south of the Great Lakes, associated with the mid-level trough, track to the northeast through the weekend as high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard pushes farther offshore. SE winds slowly veer through the period, becoming westerly late Sun night, advecting higher moisture across Florida. The strung out cold front draped across the panhandle into the Gulf starts to approach Florida late Sun.

Modest rain chances (20%) return for, with higher chances (20-40%)
Sun ahead of the front. A few lightning storms will be possible, especially Sun. Warm again this weekend in southerly flow, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70F.

Monday-Thursday...A fairly quiet first half of the week as high pressure across the southeastern US fills in behind the front, but some uncertainty how far south the high will make it, and where the frontal boundary will settle. 12Z ECM pushes the front south of Florida, while the 12Z GFS stalls it across south FL which result in higher than currently advertised rain chances (went with a consensus blend which is less than 10 pct at this time) through mid-week, especially across the south. For the second half of the week, a lot more uncertainty. 12Z guidance came in much more aggressive than previous runs, developing a sharp mid-upper level trough over the eastern US and a large attendant surface low.
Model trends have been consistently upward, but once again the GFS solution has been faster and more aggressive while the ECM is a little slower and weaker. Continued with consensus blend of guidance for the forecast at this juncture, which calls for highs sinking from the M70-L80s Mon to the U60-L70s mid-week, with lows holding steady in 50s, and northwest winds 10-15 mph. Further cooling and increasing winds are forecast Wed-Thu as the cold front associated with the low swings through, but low confidence in magnitude given how far out we're looking, and could realize temperatures lower and winds higher than currently forecast.

MARINE
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Friday...High pressure over the adjacent Atlantic continues to slide eastward, with southeast winds 10-15kt and seas 3-4ft.

Friday Night-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic extending over the local Atlantic waters retreats Sun ahead of an approaching cold front, which will drop through the waters late Sun-Mon. Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend, though 3-4ft seas could be a bit choppy at times. SE winds 10-15kt Sat morning veer to south by Sun morning, and then SW Sun night ahead of the front. Winds shift to NW around 15kt behind the front Mon evening. Seas increase a bit to 4-5ft offshore late Mon. Isolated to scattered showers, and isolated lightning storms.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Minor Flood Stage through early next week, while very slowly declining.
The river Above Lake Harney is forecast to very slowly fall below Action Stage this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 61 81 66 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 76 61 83 68 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 76 65 82 70 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 78 65 83 69 / 0 10 10 10 LEE 75 59 82 67 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 76 61 83 67 / 0 10 10 10 ORL 75 61 83 68 / 0 10 10 10 FPR 77 65 83 69 / 0 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
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Thu -- 03:17 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:08 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida, Tide feet

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EST     2.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM EST     7.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:16 PM EST     2.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:15 PM EST     5.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (2), Tide feet

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