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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 157 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 157 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis.. Broad surface high pressure has set up over the southeast u.s. And will dominate the weather for the next few days. Pleasant rain-free conditions expected with east-northeast through east-southeast winds less than 15 knots continuing through Saturday. The next cold front approaches the eastern gulf waters by Sunday morning with winds increasing and becoming more south-southwest around 15 to 20 knots ahead of the front. Scattered showers and storms will be possible through the day on Sunday as the front moves through the area. Some of these storms could be strong with damaging winds and waterspouts. Winds shift to the northwest behind this front by Sunday evening and increase to small craft advisory (sca) level around 20-25 knots and seas up to 8 feet. Winds and seas will shift to the northeast and decrease below sca level by Monday afternoon, but still elevated around 15-20 knots through the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KJAX 072356 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 656 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 652 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Only minor tweaks to the forecast tonight. Although winds are very light to calm over the region, plenty of high clouds and a slight uptick in low level moisture should keep low temps from dropping significantly overnight, and therefore frost is not currently expected. The bump in moisture could result in some patchy fog over northeast FL, particularly away from the coast.

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tranquil weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday as high pressure continues to migrate overhead and then push east into the Atlantic through Friday. As it does so, predominant flow will shift southerly and prompt a warming trend that will carry into the weekend. Lows tonight will be warmer tonight as an impulse lifts overhead bringing a blanket of mid and high clouds; readings will be in the low/mid 40s inland and in the low 50s closer to the coast, which will not support frost development.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

By Saturday, southerly winds will warm up temperatures into the mid to upper 70s area-wide, with some locations seeing high temps about 10 degrees above climo. By Saturday evening showers ahead of a frontal passage moving southeastward will approach inland southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Active weather expected Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Numerous showers forecast across NE FL and SE GA, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of which have the potential to be strong, but chances remain low at this time.
Fairly good agreement on timing among models for this frontal passage, with the onset of precip beginning late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, filling in southeastward throughout the day. Elevated southwesterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the frontal passage will allow for ample moisture, with PWATs rising above 1.5 inches. The heaviest rainfall and greatest thunderstorm risk timing will be early afternoon to evening on Sunday.

Following the frontal passage Sunday evening, dry air will infiltrate in across the region, and temperatures will bounce back to below average. Sunday night lows will be in the upper 30s across inland SE GA, with lower to mid 40s along the coast and inland NE FL as gusty winds shift to northwesterly. Chilly high temperatures Monday as cold air advection continues, temperatures will stay below 60 degrees for most of NE FL and SE GA. As winds calm slightly, low temperatures fall to just above freezing for inland SE GA, frost at this time is not expected due to winds remaining at 5-10 mph overnight. Temperatures will gradually warm up mid- week to near normal as high pressure builds to our north, allowing for breezy onshore winds and potential for isolated showers on Wednesday moving inland off the Atlantic.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR prevails with only high clouds across the area, and some mid clouds entering overnight as well. Some patchy fog is expected late tonight into Friday morning, especially away from the coast where VFR and possibly even IFR could occur in sites like VQQ and GNV. A more easterly wind is expected Friday, though wind speeds are expected to remain below 10 kt. A few showers could stream into the area Friday Night, though this would be expected after this forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure will shift over the waters this afternoon and evening and progress eastward beyond the Gulf Stream this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will pass across the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday and elevate winds and seas to Small Craft Advisory levels, particularly offshore. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will be associated with this frontal passage. Behind the front, an initial area of high pressure will build from west and then to the north through Tuesday resulting in breezy to windy onshore flow through the latter half of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Friday at NE FL beaches. A lower risk is expected at SE GA beaches through the end of the week. Increasing risk is expected this weekend with a passing cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Moisture will return to NE FL and SE GA beginning Friday as winds shift southerly, rising minRH values to above 50% through the weekend.
Dispersion will be fair to low Friday and Saturday inland, with critically low values along the immediate Atlantic coast, below 20 units on Friday.
Rain chances will increase over the weekend, especially by Sunday when a cold front moves into the area accompanied by numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. The front will sweep east of the area Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 38 69 55 76 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 47 68 59 72 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 44 71 58 77 / 0 10 10 10 SGJ 49 72 60 76 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 43 73 59 79 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 45 74 58 80 / 0 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Kings Bay
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Thu -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kings Bay, Crystal River, Florida, Tide feet

Kings Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:28 PM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kings Bay, Crystal River, Florida (2), Tide feet

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