Sunday, November29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belleview, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:31PM Sunday November 29, 2020 12:00 AM EST (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 758 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the evening, then then becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Monday..West winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers until late afternoon. A chance of showers late in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 758 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure over the region will give way as a strong cold front pushes across the waters Sunday night night and Monday. A band of showers and Thunderstorms will move over the region ahead of the front, with a few strong storms possible. Colder drier air will advect across the waters in the wake of the front Monday through Tuesday morning with strong gusty northwest winds likely creating advisory level conditions with building seas. High pressure will build over the eastern gulf mid week with winds and seas subsiding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belleview, FL
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location: 28.99, -82.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 290157 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 857 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

UPDATE.

Cold front was located over our southern zones with widespread low clouds and light northerly winds in its wake. Shower activity has diminished since the late aftn, with only a slight chance of a light shower rest of the evening along the front. However, a couple of light showers will be possible overnight as some overrunning develops around the 295K surface ahead of a disturbance. Patchy fog and drizzle will be possible at times later tonight. Cooler lows in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south zones. Current forecast on track with little change.

MARINE.

Over the marine waters, a better chance of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm late tonight as a weak sfc low pressure/trough form some 40-60 NM offshore. With a weak low forming, some slightly stronger north-northeast winds are to be expected over sections of the GA marine waters. For now, 10-15 kt looks good, with any stronger winds likely being short-lived and low coverage over southeast GA waters. Seas about 2-4 ft, with some 4-5 ft seas possible further offshore.

PREV DISCUSSION [700 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Abundant cloud cover and cooler northerly flow across SE Georgia, associated with an east-west frontal zone draped across southern Georgia, has kept afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s. Further south across NE Florida, filtered sunshine has allowed temps to warm into the 70s.

A southward moving front will be the focus of shower activity and isolated t-storms through this evening. Warm advection/isentropic lift over the front might keep a shower or two going tonight but most activity should cease after sunset. A shallow coastal low will develop at the intersection of the front and coastal trough tonight. As it does, breezy northeast winds are expected along coastal SE GA.

Overnight temps will cool to the mid 50s from the Suwannee Valley into SE Georgia while low to 60s are expected along the coast with northeast onshore flow.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday].

The highest risk of weather impacts is expected Sunday through Monday, with slight chance of isolated tornadoes Sunday afternoon and evening and strong winds (possible severe) Monday with a segmented line of thunderstorms.

A positive-tilt upper trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley Sunday and phase with a mid-level cutoff as it pivots into the southeastern US. At the surface, a surface low will develop and advance toward the northern Gulf coast as it deepens on Sunday. While this occurs, southerly flow will increase over the region resulting in strong deep shear (40-55 kts) and enhanced low-level helicity (150-250 m2/s2) across forecast area.

Meanwhile, a stalled frontal zone over central Florida will lift northward as a warm front, reaching the FL/GA line by Sunday evening, pressing further north across Georgia Sunday night as the trailing cold front approaches from the west. Within the warm sector and along the warm front guidance remains fairly pessimistic regarding degree of destabilization with low-end CAPE (generally less than 500 j/kg) forecast. The chance for severe storms remains possible, but convective initiation in the warm sector still seems bleak. That said, slight chance to chance PoPs were kept through the area through Sunday afternoon. High temps will be warmest over north central FL with readings around 80 degrees with mid to upper 70s over NE FL, low 70s along the SE GA coast and near the FL/GA state line with upper 60s NW of Waycross.

Prospects for strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday evening look to be better than the afternoon as an instability axis develops ahead of the cold front. If this materializes, low-top supercells will be possible after midnight Sunday through early Monday. Areas with the highest risk of strong thunderstorms will be inland SE Georgia and inland NE Florida along the Suwannee River. Timing of the cold front seems to be consistent from the previous runs, with the cold front reaching the western edge of the forecast area around 3-5 am. A segmented line of thunderstorms will accompany the front passage Monday morning; straight-line winds will be the main threat with thunderstorms along the cold front. The front will finally exit by the early afternoon Monday with rain tapering off from northwest to southeast as dry, cool northwest filters in it behind.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday].

Broad upper low will rotate across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday as surface high builds from the west. Cold air advection and breezy northwest winds will persist through Tuesday leading to brisk conditions. Surface high pressure expands and shifts over the region on Wednesday, reducing winds allowing further cooling overnight. Highs Tuesday will be 15-20 degrees below normal. As winds lighten Tuesday night, temps will drop to their lowest of the season falling into the low 30s over NE FL along and west of I-95 with upper 30s to near 40 at the coast while subfreezing temps appear likely over inland SE GA and the suwannee river valley of NE FL with low to mid 30s at the SE GA coast. Freeze headlines will likely be needed in subsequent forecast packages.

Winds will begin to veer the the northeast on Wednesday then east on Thursday allowing temps to gradually warm up to near normal. Another low pressure system is progged to swing across the southeast late this week bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Temps will likely read slightly above normal Friday before dropping again Saturday behind a frontal passage.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Monday]

Cold front is gradually pushing southwards over northeast FL this evening with a few light showers along it. The front will move south of all the terminals by late evening, with resultant light north to northeast flow of about 5-10 kt at terminals, but slightly weaker inland at GNV and VQQ. A weak sfc low/trough may form offshore of the northeast FL coast, maintaining this northerly flow into Sunday morning. Main impacts are cigs, given the very moist low levels and isentropic ascent above the front that will maintain IFR cigs for most of the night, with some cigs down to LIFR after 05Z, and with light winds some MVFR vsby likely at times late tonight. There is some chance of occasional improvement to low end MVFR cigs for a period of time at SSI. Otherwise, the low cigs are expected to persist through late Sunday morning and aftn. A warm front will push up into northeast FL by late Sunday aftn, which may act to improve cigs but not optimistic they will improve to VFR, except for GNV which could go to VFR along with VCSH, around 21Z as the warm front lifts northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 54 67 58 66 35 / 0 70 80 40 10 SSI 59 69 64 72 39 / 20 40 70 70 10 JAX 59 74 64 73 38 / 10 30 70 70 10 SGJ 64 76 66 75 41 / 20 20 70 70 10 GNV 60 76 63 71 37 / 20 30 60 60 10 OCF 63 78 65 73 40 / 20 20 60 60 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 54 mi61 min N 4.1 G 6 69°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.3)68°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 63 mi76 min N 5.1 68°F 1018 hPa66°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Leesburg International Airport, FL17 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F93%1017.2 hPa
Ocala International Airport - Jim Taylor Field, FL17 mi70 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F93%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVVG

Wind History from VVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6----N10------------------Calm------Calm--CalmN5--Calm
1 day ago--CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----
2 days agoN8Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6----CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kings Bay, Crystal River, Florida (2)
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Kings Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.622.32.221.71.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.311.62.12.221.81.41.10.90.81

Tide / Current Tables for Kings Bay, Crystal River, Florida
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Kings Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:03 AM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.72.12.22.11.81.410.50.200.10.40.81.31.61.71.71.51.310.80.80.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.