Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glencoe, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Tonight-Sunday...East coast sea breeze will continue to shift westward, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly across the interior through late afternoon, and then gradually diminishing through sunset. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast into the rest of tonight. However, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a storm or two will continue to be possible, mainly along the Treasure Coast through the overnight and early morning hours of Sunday. Will therefore keep a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms across this region into tonight.

Ridge axis of high pressure will remain north of the area, with a deep onshore flow across the area. Low level easterly flow looks to even increase slightly, which should lead to earlier development and a little faster inland motion of the east coast sea breeze tomorrow.
Morning will start off with the potential for isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a few storms along the coast, but then scattered convective coverage will then focus inland into the afternoon. Greatest rain chances (up to 50%) will be across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County where PW values will be higher (up to 1.8-1.9"). Farther north, rain chances will range from 30-40 percent. Drier air aloft will continue a low threat of a few stronger storms, with the main threats being frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Easterly steering winds will remain weak, which may allow for some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with slow moving storms. Seasonable summer- time highs continue tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 at the coast and low 90s inland, with peak afternoon heat index values around 98-102F.

Storms will again diminish and shift west of the area through sunset, with mostly dry conditions again forecast into Sunday night.
The exception will be along the coast, from Brevard County southward where isolated onshore moving showers/storms will again be possible (chance of rain 20-30 percent).

Monday-Friday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will stay north of the area through at least the middle of next week. Aloft, a strong mid-level ridge centered across the Mid- Atlantic states will remain extended across the southeast United States. This will continue a deep onshore flow across the area through Wednesday, with drier air building in from the east. PW values are forecast to fall to 1.5-1.6" on Monday and below 1.5" through midweek (with GFS showing values as low as 1.1-1.2" on Wednesday). This will lead to lower than normal storm coverage through this timeframe, with rain chances 30-40 percent across much of the area Monday-Tuesday and as low as 20-30 percent on Wednesday.
Overall trends should favor isolated to scattered onshore moving showers in the morning focusing inland each afternoon with the westward moving east coast sea breeze. Any late day boundary collisions should focus toward the west coast of the Florida peninsula, with mostly dry conditions across east central Florida each evening and overnight. Highs remain hot, but close to normal values, ranging from the upper 80s/around 90 degrees at the coast to low 90s inland (some mid 90s well inland on Wednesday). Drier air will keep peak afternoon heat index values closer to normal as well, with values up to 98-102F each afternoon.

An increase in moisture is forecast into late week, as ridge axis settles southward across central Florida. This will lead to a gradual rise in rain chances, up to 30-40 percent on Thursday and 50- 60 percent on Friday. However, greatest storm coverage will continue across the interior where sea breeze/outflow boundary interactions occur. Temperatures will also rise into late week, with highs reaching the low 90s at the coast and mid 90s across much of the interior. The increase in moisture and temps will also lead to more humid conditions, with afternoon peak heat index values around 100- 105F.

MARINE
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Tonight-Thursday...Boating conditions will overall remain favorable through the remainder of the weekend into next week. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain north of the area, maintaining a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze across the waters. Wind speeds are forecast to generally remain below 15 knots, with seas ranging from 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop over the waters, especially during the nighttime and morning hours, but developing afternoon convection should focus inland and toward the western Florida peninsula. Main threat from storms will be gusty winds and cloud to water lightning strikes.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Mainly VFR conditions outside of convection. Upper level clouds caused some variation in development of the ECSB, affecting timing of the wind shift and VCTS, as well as gusts behind the boundary, at coastal terminals a bit, especially KTIX-KMLB. Erly winds 5-10 kts increase to 10-15 kts behind the ECSB, higher along the coast with gusts to around 20 kts at KDAB, KVRB-KSUA. Gradual increase in SHRA/TSRA coverage along and ahead of the ECSB as it moves inland, but chances at inland terminals too low for TEMPOs due to cloud cover reducing available instability. Highest chances west of the ECFL terminals as Erly flow favors an ECSB-WCSB collision on the western side of the peninsula, with generally quiet conditions over here by 00Z. Increasing chances for onshore moving SHRA from KSUA-KTIX between 06Z-16Z. Continued Erly flow Sunday gets a diffuse ECSB off to an early start, producing gradually increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA as it moves inland again. Some brief MVFR CIGs possible along the boundary as it initially develops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 88 74 88 / 10 30 10 30 MCO 75 92 76 92 / 10 40 10 40 MLB 77 88 77 88 / 10 40 20 30 VRB 75 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 30 LEE 75 92 75 92 / 10 30 10 40 SFB 75 92 75 92 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 76 92 76 92 / 10 40 10 40 FPR 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.