Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Smyrna Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thru Tonight...Focus for aftn storms will continue to be over the north interior sections where higher moisture resides (PWATs close to 2") and sea/lake breeze boundary collisions will occur.
Drier air moving in from the south around the ridge axis will keep most dry along the coast south of the Cape. Convection will linger a little past sunset across the north then once the instability is worked over, a quiet late evening/overnight is forecast.

Tuesday-Sunday...The mid level ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain across the FL peninsula and even build a little stronger by Wed. This ridge will weaken a bit on Fri only to be replaced by a stronger mid level ridge centered over the central Appalachians this weekend. In the lower levels, the Atlc subtropical ridge axis will remain draped across north/central Florida. Drier air will move in mid week and lower rain chances to 30% Wed and 30-40% Wed and these PoPs may be generous. The lower rain/storm coverage will produce above normal max temps in the mid 90s interior and around 90 coast. The drier air will help keep dewpoints in check so humidity, while present, will be moderate.
The combination of heat and humidity will produce peak heat indices 100-105. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria (>=108), widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with Major HeatRisk across the Orlando metro area.

A bump in rain chances may come Friday with the weakness in the ridging aloft. The focus for storms will be over the north interior with 50-60% PoPs decreasing to 30% along the Treasure coast. This weekend, the low level high pressure ridge over the SW Atlc rebuilds just to our north, near 30N lat, which will produce a persistent E/SE flow. Have kept PoPs close to climo (30-50%) this weekend. This flow pattern favors overnight/morning showers near the coast spreading inland quickly with a diffuse east coast sea breeze during the day.

MARINE
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The Atlc subtropical ridge axis will remain across north/central FLorida, leading to generally favorable boating conditions.
South wind 5-10 knots overnight and early morning will become Southeast 10 to 15 knots each afternoon near the coast behind the east coast sea breeze. Seas around 2 ft. Isolated to scattered shower and storm activity (20 to 40 percent chance) is forecast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A persistent summertime pattern continues, favoring showers and storms in vicinity of the interior terminals this afternoon.
Confidence is not high enough for TEMPOs at this time, but will monitor trends in convection for any TSRA amendments as needed.
Winds have already shifted east-southeast at most coastal terminals behind the sea breeze. Prevailing south-southwest winds at most interior TAF sites will back southeast as the sea breeze passes. VFR outside of convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 92 74 92 / 20 30 10 30 MCO 76 95 75 94 / 30 30 20 40 MLB 76 90 76 89 / 10 20 10 30 VRB 74 90 74 90 / 0 30 10 30 LEE 75 94 76 94 / 30 30 20 40 SFB 75 95 75 94 / 30 30 10 30 ORL 76 94 76 94 / 30 30 20 40 FPR 72 90 73 89 / 0 30 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.