Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Kathryn, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Now-Tonight...Sunshine and scattered cumulus are in abundance this afternoon across east central Florida. After some morning fog, temperatures have quickly climbed into the low to mid 80s as breezy to gusty onshore flow continues. We have seen a few showers on radar since late morning, mainly staying close to the coast where the east coast breeze is trying to get its start. It remains a bit diffuse for now but should organize a bit better by mid afternoon, moving slowly inland and colliding with the west coast breeze. As convective temperatures are reached, the sea breezes collide over ECFL, and a weakening mid level impulse moves over north FL, shower/storm development is expected to increase.

RAP analysis shows mid level temps around -11C with soundings revealing a lot of dry air in the column. This is leading to DCAPE values around 1000+ J/kg and would be a concern for stronger wind gusts with organized convection. Some small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out either if storms grow and maintain organized updrafts. The prime time for storms looks to be from 5 PM to 10 PM, particularly from the I-4 corridor south to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee. Steering flow will slowly push rain and lightning storms toward the east coast, though it is less certain how much activity actually makes it to coastal communities before dissipating prior to midnight.

As conditions dry out, temperatures will fall into the 60s overnight. At least some patchy fog is possible over portions of ECFL early Monday, with locally dense fog not out of the question...especially where rain occurs this evening.

Monday-Saturday (modified)...Surface high pressure remains near or across the central FL peninsula into Wed, then gets shunted south/east in favor of an advancing cold front that will push across ECFL on Thu. Weak high pressure builds behind the front as winds veer onshore (NE/E) Thu night/Fri, continuing onshore into the weekend. Leading up to this into mid-week with a weaker pressure gradient in place, variable morning winds will transition gradually to onshore with daily sea breeze formation. Lighter winds in the low levels will likely promote a better chance for patchy (dense) fog development across the area Tue/Wed mornings. A 15-20% chance for showers exists on Mon (lightning chances too low to mention). Mostly dry conditions Tue/Wed. SCT-NMRS showers and ISOLD storms (40-60%) forecast with aforementioned boundary on Thu. Residual moisture behind the front remains with a 15-30% chance for showers on Fri, mainly south of Orlando, with sea breeze activity promoting a 15-30% chance areawide on Sat.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru Thu. with some spots flirting with records (in the U80s to around 90F) each day across the interior. On Thursday prior to the front and increased rain/storm chances, we expect L80s across the I-4 corridor with M-U80s southward. Fri will be closer to seasonal values with mainly 70s, except L80s across our far western areas. Temps rebound Saturday, reaching the U70s/M80s. Overnight lows will remain mild in the 60s areawide thru Thu morning. Briefly cooler air returns Fri morning. Lows in the U50s to L60s generally for Sat/Sun mornings.

MARINE
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

High pressure is forecast to remain in place over the local Atlantic through the middle of the week, promoting light southerly (variable at times) winds turning onshore each afternoon. Winds freshen offshore Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of an approaching front, then increase quickly behind the front Thursday afternoon and evening from north to south. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are expected as early as Wednesday night and continuing through late week.

For tonight, isolated showers over the waters this afternoon will give way to offshore-moving (and decaying) showers/storms this evening. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, hail, and brief heavy rainfall are possible with the strongest storms. A very low chance for showers exists Monday with mostly dry conditions forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

3-5 ft waves continue through Wednesday before increasing along and behind Thursday's cold front, reaching 5-8 ft late Thursday night.
Seas then subside Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Boundary collision occurring early this evening is supporting SCT TSRA from near or just east of DAB-SFB-MCO-ISM. Activity will push toward the ENE and reach TIX and possibly MLB thru 02Z-03Z.
Areas that see rain will have a relatively higher threat for fog late tonight/early Monday. Have inserted prevailing IFR conds at LEE starting at 09Z and a TEMPO for MVFR conds at MCO/SFB where NBM probabilities have increased 50-60% for IFR CIGs . On Mon, LEE should be slow to return to VFR conds (by 16Z-17Z); otherwise, mainly VFR with light and variable winds turning ESE at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze early in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 84 64 84 / 40 10 0 10 MCO 66 87 67 88 / 50 20 10 10 MLB 65 83 66 83 / 30 20 10 10 VRB 65 84 65 84 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 65 86 65 88 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 65 88 66 88 / 50 20 0 10 ORL 66 88 68 88 / 50 20 10 10 FPR 64 85 63 84 / 20 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.