Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Kathryn, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 836 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A few light returns on the KMLB radar over the Atlantic waters and along the coast this evening. A sprinkle or two may result from this activity, however, it is mainly virga. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions through tonight. Surface observations as of 8 PM show temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with easterly winds at 8-12 mph. A few low and high level clouds are streaming across the area this evening, with skies forecast to become mostly clear to party cloudy tonight. Easterly winds will prevail with speeds generally under 10 mph. Some guidance has indicated the potential for patchy ground fog to develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. However, confidence is very low this will occur, so have kept all mention of fog for tonight out of the forecast. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s across the interior, and mid to upper 60s to even low 70s along the coast. Forecast remains on track with only slight adjustments to the rain chances and wind speeds through tomorrow.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida except for a few sprinkles over the east central Florida Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies. Broad high pressure (~1028mb) is over the western Atlantic with the mid/upper level ridge axis over the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast with the low 80s to low 90s inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are in the the 60s to near 70 degrees. Winds are from the east- southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Dry weather is expected overnight with low temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s forecast inland to the west of I-95 and the mid 60s to low 70s near the coast. Mostly dry weather is expected on Saturday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
However, the HRRR and NSSL hi-resolution models indicate the potential for isolated showers with a late sea breeze collision to the west of the Orlando metro into Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast mainly to the north of I-4 between 5PM and 9PM. East-southeast winds around 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into the afternoon.
Afternoon highs in the 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s forecast inland.

Sunday-Monday... High pressure is expected to weaken and shift south on Sunday. "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east- southeast over east central Florida Sunday night and during the day on Monday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast Sunday afternoon with a late sea breeze collision to the west of the Orlando metro into Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture increases into Monday with a weak frontal boundary over the local Atlantic waters with PWATs in the 1.50-1.70" range. Isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast Monday morning near the coast and farther inland into the afternoon. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 30-40mph and occasional lightning strikes. East-southeast winds around 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast each afternoon. Above normal to near record highs are forecast on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast inland. Afternoon highs in the low 80s to low 90s are forecast on Monday. Lows generally in the 60s to low 70s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk on Sunday over the interior. This level of heat can affect those sensitive to heat, especially without adequate hydration or effective cooling.

Tuesday-Thursday... Onshore flow is expected to continue into mid week next week with high pressure (~1024mb) to the northeast of Florida over the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20-40) are forecast near the coast Tuesday morning before rain chances increase into the afternoon farther inland with PWATs in the 1.30-1.50" range. Mostly dry weather is forecast Wednesday and Thursday with PWATs reducing to 0.80-1.0" range. Winds are expected to increase into each afternoon from the east-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph with the east coast sea breeze.Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s inland on Tuesday before increasing to the mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with broad high pressure (~1028mb) over the western Atlantic.
Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast tonight into early Saturday. East-southeast winds at around 10-15kts are expected to reduce to 6-12kts on Saturday. Seas to 2-4ft are expected.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected through Monday. High pressure is expected to weaken and shift south on Sunday before a "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east-southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-40%) generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast Sunday night and on Monday.
Isolated to widely scattered (PoPs~ 20-30%) generally onshore moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms will be wind gusts to 30-40mph and occasional lightning strikes. East-southeast winds at 8-12kts Sunday afternoon are forecast to increase from the east on Monday and Tuesday at 10-15kts. Seas to 2-4ft are expected with up to 5ft forecast offshore (20-60nm) Monday night and Tuesday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Continued ESE winds at all terminals, strongest in the afternoon hours Saturday (8-14 KT). Primarily VFR conds with spotty MVFR CIGs near the coast. Low potential for some patchy ground fog early in the morning, too low for mention in TAF.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Very warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through Sunday.
Minimum RH values will reach 35 to 40% across the interior each afternoon. Minimum RH values are forecast between 45-55% closer to the coast. East winds today and in the afternoons this weekend will be enhanced by the sea breeze with speeds 12-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph at times especially along the coast. Above normal temperatures continue across the interior with highs in the upper 80s today and warming into the lower 90s Saturday and even a few mid 90s on Sunday. Coastal communities will warm into the mid to upper 80s this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%)
and isolated lightning storms are forecast on Monday. Although Red Flag Warnings are not anticipated, such warm, dry and breezy/gusty conditions will produce fire weather sensitive conditions supporting rapid drying of fuels and spread of any new or ongoing fires. Very Good smoke dispersion is forecast today with Generally Good dispersions forecast Saturday and Sunday as surface and transport winds decrease slightly. Burn bans are in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia, and Brevard counties.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 85 66 88 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 65 91 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 71 84 68 86 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 70 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 66 91 67 93 / 0 10 10 20 SFB 64 90 65 93 / 0 0 10 20 ORL 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 69 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.