Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce Inlet, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today-Tonight... Little change in the weather pattern across east central Florida today, with the ridge axis remaining extended across the area coupled with a mid-level ridge situated across Florida.
Light southerly flow will also persist at the surface, becoming a bit more southeasterly this afternoon along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. CAM guidance is indicating that the sea breeze will attempt to take advantage of the 1.7-1.9 inch PWATs present across the area, with increasing shower and storm coverage anticipated heading into the afternoon hours.
However, the ridge aloft combined with drier air in the mid-levels will act to try and suppress activity, similar to the last few days.
While not everywhere across east central Florida will see shower and storm activity, the highest chances for rain and storms continues to be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. This is where the sea breeze collision is anticipated to occur and is also where the greatest moisture resides across east central Florida based on model guidance.

Storm activity this afternoon is anticipated to remain sub-severe.
Drier air in the mid-levels may help enhance winds, especially with 800-1000 J/kg of DCAPE present across much of the area, but warmer 500 mb temperatures (approximately -6C) and poor mid-level lapse rates along with the aforementioned mid-level ridge will act to limit convective activity. Any storms that do develop may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Weak steering flow may lead to slow storm motion, which could allow for some areas to see between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time. As a result, minor, localized flooding in low-lying areas with poor drainage may be possible.

Outside of shower and storm activity, hot and humid conditions are forecast to persist across east central Florida. While highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are near normal for this time of year, these temperatures will combine with humidity to produce peak heat indices in the 100 to 103 range across much of east central Florida.
Additionally, there is a moderate HeatRisk across most of the area, meaning that heat stress is a concern for those spending extended periods of time outdoors, especially for groups typically sensitive to heat. Adequate hydration and taking frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will help to mitigate heat stress.
Lows fall into the low to mid 70s overnight, with muggy conditions persisting through the overnight hours.

It is also worth noting that there is a moderate risk of rip currents at all local east central Florida beaches today. If heading to the beach, be sure to always swim near a lifeguard, heed the advice of local beach safety officials and posted flags, and never enter the ocean alone.

Monday-Saturday...Heading into the work week, there is minimal change to the weather pattern. The mid-level ridge is anticipated to stay over Florida, with the surface ridge axis remaining draped across central Florida. Some drier air may work its way towards east central Florida from the southeast, helping to limit shower and storm chances across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee.
Greater moisture across northern portions of the forecast area combined with the daily sea breeze collision will allow for a 40 to 50 percent chance for showers and storms each afternoon, though activity will likely remain rather scattered. Late week, some guidance is hinting at the approach of a weakening frontal boundary, which could lead to increasing moisture and therefore, increasing rain and storm chances across all of east central Florida heading into the weekend.

With the mid-level ridge remaining in place across the peninsula, temperatures are anticipated to warm through the work week. Highs reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. A moderate to major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida each afternoon. Overnight temperatures remain fairly consistent in the low to mid 70s through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place over the next several days across the local Atlantic waters, with south to southeast winds prevailing each day. Winds pick up each afternoon behind the development of the east coast sea breeze, but generally remain between 10 to 15 knots, becoming lighter and even variable at times into the overnight hours. Generally favorable boating conditions are anticipated through the period, with seas remaining between 2 to 3 feet. While weather conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the local waters, isolated to scattered showers and storms cannot be fully ruled out (20 to 40 percent chance through the period).

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Convection near to NW of the I-4 corridor has weakened, but a few light showers may linger through 7-8Z. VFR conditions generally forecast through the rest of the night into Sunday. Setup will remain fairly similar to yesterday. The east coast sea breeze will develop late morning to early afternoon and shift inland through the remainder of the day, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead of this boundary.

Greatest rain chances around 50-60 percent reside along and NW of I-4 where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions are more likely through late afternoon into early evening. For now have VCTS mentioned at all terminals, and will hold off on tempo TSRA groups for now. However, these may be needed with the 12Z TAF package, mainly for inland sites and KDAB where rain chances are highest.

Southerly winds 5-8 knots will become southeast behind the sea breeze as it moves inland, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots at times along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 74 91 74 / 60 30 50 20 MCO 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30 MLB 90 75 89 75 / 40 20 30 20 VRB 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 10 LEE 91 75 92 75 / 60 30 60 30 SFB 92 75 94 75 / 50 30 60 30 ORL 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 60 30 FPR 89 73 89 73 / 30 10 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.