Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure prevails over the local area today.
A cold start for many, with wind chills already in the lower to mid- 40s for much of the area as of around 3AM. Forecast peak wind chills this morning are as low as the upper 30s north of I-4.
Temperatures will begin to warm after sunrise. However, northerly winds will help to keep temperatures below normal this afternoon.
Highs are forecast to remain in the 60s for all areas with the exception of the Treasure Coast. The pressure gradient will relax slightly today, allowing winds to diminish. But, winds 10-15mph, with gusts up to 20mph, are still forecast along the coast.
Increasing mid-level moisture will lead to increasing clouds into the afternoon hours. There is a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Tonight, northerly winds will persist, but slacken to around 5mph.
Increased cloud cover will limit radiational cooling. While overnight lows are still forecast to fall below normal, they won't be quite as cold as early this morning, remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most areas. Locations north of I-4 will continue to see the possibility of lows in the lower 40s.

Thursday-Friday...High pressure lingers over the Deep South through Friday, though it will weaken through the period. Dry conditions continue to prevail over land areas. The pressure gradient will continue to slacken, leading to light winds. Wind directions may be variable at times, but generally northerly flow looks to persist.
Clearing skies into Friday will do little to improve the continued below normal temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees for all but the southern Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will once again dip Thursday night into Friday morning, with radiational cooling making it the coldest night of the week. Lows are forecast in the lower to mid-40s for much of east central Florida, with wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures warm slightly into Friday night with additional cloud cover, remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday-Sunday...The pattern begins to become more active this weekend, as a warm front lifts through east central Florida ahead of a low pressure system drifting through the Southeast US. This system is forecast to drag a cold front through the local area on Sunday.
Until then, breezy southerly winds developing Saturday will advect in higher moisture to the peninsula, with PWATs climbing to between 1.3-1.5". PoPs will increase accordingly, first along and north of the I-4 corridor, then spreading southward into Saturday night. PoPs 30-60% through this period.
Rain chances will continue Sunday, as the front moves through the area, with PoPs lingering at 20-30% into Sunday night. Have not included a mention for any lightning storms, as CAPE is forecast to be very minimal at this time.

Southerly winds will help to bring a dramatic temperature swing, leading to highs above normal and a break from several weeks of colder temperatures. Highs Saturday afternoon are forecast in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s area-wide. By Sunday, the approaching front will produce highs in the 70s for most of the area and lower 80s for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s Saturday night will fall into the upper 40s to lower to mid-50s behind the front Sunday night.

Next Week...An active pattern is forecast to continue into early next week. Models continue to disagree on the exact setup.
However, the bottom line appears to be that shower chances will continue, though the amount of showers is in question. Onshore flow looks to develop, producing breezy conditions along the coast.
Temperatures are forecast to remain cool, but nearer to normal than the previous few weeks.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today, as seas slowly diminish over the Gulf Stream waters. Small Craft Advisories continue for the offshore Space and Treasure Coast waters into early afternoon, as seas remain up to 7ft. Small craft will need to exercise caution over all of the Gulf Stream waters into this evening. Otherwise, seas 3-5ft. North to north- northeast winds this morning will diminish from 15-20kts to around 10kts by tonight.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure will linger over the local area through late week, maintaining generally favorable boating conditions. Seas 2-5ft through Friday night. No precipitation is forecast, with generally northerly or north-northeasterly winds around 10kts or less.

A more active period develops this weekend into early next week, as a front approaches and passes through east central Florida.
Increasing rain chances Saturday, peaking Sunday with the front, then lingering into Monday, as moisture increases. Hazardous south to southwesterly winds developing ahead of the front on Saturday, becoming up to 20-25kts well offshore. Winds will eventually become northerly behind the front and remain around 15-20kts. Seas 2-4ft through the weekend building to 4-5ft nearshore and 5-7ft in the Gulf Stream on Monday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 606 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds increase to around 10 kts inland/KDAB, and 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts KTIX-KSUA, while veering slightly to the northeast in the afternoon. Tonight, winds becoming light northerly again.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Today-Friday...Near-critical min RH is forecast over the interior through the end of the week. Today and Thursday, the highest chance for seeing lower RH values will be along and north of the I-4 corridor. North to north-northeast winds will remain 10-15mph, with gusts to 20mph along the coast today. However, winds are forecast around 10mph or less for inland counties.
Through the rest of the week, winds will become lighter and more variable, but remain generally northerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 44 63 39 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 65 48 64 43 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 66 49 65 44 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 70 52 68 47 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 62 45 64 42 / 0 10 10 0 SFB 63 46 65 42 / 0 10 10 0 ORL 65 47 65 44 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 70 51 68 46 / 10 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ572- 575.