Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday August 24, 2019 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 349 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 349 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis..A low pressure trough extending from a low pressure area across south florida will continue across the treasure coast atlantic waters overnight. Another low is forecast to develop offshore along the boundary on Sunday and move well northeast of the area into early next week. The trough will linger across the waters into early next week. Higher coverage of showers and storms is expected across the southern and offshore waters tonight and early Sunday. Mariners should continue to Monitor the tropical weather outlook from the national hurricane center and latest coastal waters forecast through the weekend regarding any impacts from potential development across the atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday august 22nd. 39 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 20 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL
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location: 29.1, -81.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 241928
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
328 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Discussion
Current-tonight... A low pressure trough will continue across
southern forecast area extending from a broad surface low across
south fl to a developing sfc low well offshore across the atlantic
late tonight. Mainly isolated convection in the form of showers is
expected north of the trough through sunset with low level northeast
flow and mid level drier air. Some locally heavy rain may develop
with a few storms across far SRN sections into early evening from
martin to southern okeechobee county. After sunset, much of the
forecast area will be dry with a lingering low shower chance across
coastal st lucie and all of martin county overnight. Lows will be
mainly in the mid 70s.

12z GFS guidance in pretty good agreement with previous model runs,
should see one more day of pops generally in the lower scattered
range (except across the far south Monday near the trailing trough
and deeper moisture) and then increasing shower storm chances
expected into early next week. Previous discussion follows...

Sunday-Wednesday (previous)... Wherever the center of the tropical
surface low decides to (re)form consolidate over the next 24h, by
sun morning it will be moving away from florida, tracking ne
offshore the SE CONUS seaboard, between the atlantic ridge to its se
and a pair of short wave troughs to its nw-n. Behind the departing
low, the atlantic mid level ridge will rebuild westward into south
florida thru mid week.

Weak surface trough axis will trail SW from the the low into ecfl
sun, while the slp pattern transitions to a broad col for mon-tue.

By wed, a weak mid level short wave trough digs across the eastern
conus, lowering heights across the SE CONUS and fl. An attendant
surface cool front will drop toward nofl, with the low level flow
becoming westerly across the peninsula. Sufficient mean moisture
will support scattered to numerous diurnal showers storms for the
next several afternoons, with pops averaging 60 pct (or ~10 pct
either side of it).

Weak steering flow the next several afternoons will portend some
locally heavy (1-3") rainfall totals, typical of late august, each
day. Wednesday looks to have a more pronounced w-wnw steering flow
of about 10-15kt, which would limit rainfall totals but may increase
the wind gust wet microburst potential. Temps look close to climo.

Thursday-Saturday (previous)... Residual mid level weakness over
florida will fill in as the broad trough to its north lights out,
allowing the atlantic ridge to rebuild west toward ecfl. Guidance
suggests that a broad low pressure area will form over offshore nofl
thu morning from the frontal remnants, and then retrograde westward
into the gomex through next weekend. This may result in higher mid
week pops than what we are advertising (given it's in the day 6-7
time frame) followed by slight drying next weekend. Of course, this
assumes the model guidance consensus out at days 6+ is close to
being correct, and as early september approaches, significant
forecast changes happen more often than not.

Aviation
Afternoon shower and storm chances have continued to trend downward
since this morning, and precip mention in tafs have been scaled that
way as well. Will keep vcsh mention across interior terminals
through 21z-22z dry conditions prevail this evening and overnight.

Along the coast, from mlb-dab, precip chances appear too low to
include, but it's still possible a stray shower could move onshore
from the atlantic. Shower chances for vrb-sua are a bit higher so
vcsh remains through this evening with even a brief thunder mention
at sua. Some model guidance is hinting at some MVFR and possibly
ifr ceilings late tonight early Sunday morning across interior
sites, but confidence is low.

Marine
Tonight... The surface trof will extend northeast from the treasure
coast through the night. NE winds to 10 knots are expected north of
the boundary with S SW winds to 10 knots south of the trof axis.

Higher shower and storm coverage expected across the far southern
and offshore waters through the late night hours. Seas 2-3 ft near
shore and 3-4 ft well offshore.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified)... Departing tropical low will leave a
residual surface trough laying across the local atlantic sun, which
will weaken through tue. Cyclonic (ne-sw) flow about the trough axis
will slacken, becoming light (mainly) offshore through tue, but
giving way to the onshore ecsb circ near the coast each afternoon.

Stronger westerlies are advertised for wed, which may increase the
threat to boaters of strong offshore-moving storms in the
afternoon evening.

2-4ft seas on Sunday will drop back to mainly 2-3ft from Sun night
onward, and then remain at or less than 3ft for the middle of next
week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 76 89 75 90 10 30 20 60
mco 76 94 77 93 10 40 20 70
mlb 76 90 76 91 10 30 20 60
vrb 74 91 74 90 10 40 20 60
lee 77 94 77 92 10 40 20 70
sfb 75 93 77 93 10 40 20 60
orl 77 93 78 93 10 40 20 60
fpr 73 91 74 91 20 40 30 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Volkmer sharp combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi96 min NE 8 85°F 1016 hPa85°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi81 min NE 11 G 12 82°F 84°F1014.9 hPa (-1.5)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 55 mi51 min NNE 8.9 G 13 87°F 84°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL7 mi28 minNE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F75°F72%1014.2 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL10 mi34 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F78°F94%1014.9 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL14 mi31 minENE 10 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1014.6 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL23 mi28 minENE 13 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds92°F73°F54%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

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Last 24hrNE9NE8NE4E4NE6E5E5E3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N5N6NE9NE10NE11NE11NE11NE11
1 day agoE9E9E8E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N5NE7NE9NE12SE6NE5NE5N8
2 days agoE7E8E6E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE8E7E9E12E11

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:15 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.533.33.22.82.21.50.90.50.50.81.52.43.23.84.13.93.52.821.410.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (3)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:37 AM EDT     2.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:09 PM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:31 PM EDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.555.35.34.94.33.632.52.52.93.64.55.35.96.26.15.64.84.13.4333.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.