Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for De Leon Springs, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Currently...The weak front has pushed through most of East Central Florida with little fanfare today, only now firing up lightning storms thanks to daytime heating and addition of multiple boundaries from the sea breezes and lake breezes.

Rest of Today-Friday...The environment ahead of the front remains conditionally supportive of stronger storms due to cool mid-level temperatures approaching -10C and modest westerly shear. Deeper convection will need to overcome lacking low-level moisture and a slightly hostile mid-level environment, but daytime heating and the abundance of boundaries are getting storms passed that hurdle near the front. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms continues the Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin, southern Osceola, and southern Brevard counties. Hi-res guidance through the day has been inconsistent where and when storms will pop, especially once storm outflow gets added to the mix, so areal and temporal coverage of rain and storm chances in the official forecast remain on the broader side. At the moment the ARW and NSSL hi-res models are performing best (with the HRRR currently out to lunch), which support the current forecast, albeit maybe a little further south than previously advertised. Main threats continue to be strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. There is also a very low (less than 2%) threat for a tornado given the number of boundaries and interactions. There is also potential for slow moving or training storms and heavy showers that could deliver a quick 1-3" of rainfall, with locally high amounts of 5" possible, leading to minor flooding.

The front stalls just to the south by Friday, and with little change to the overall environment, the conditional risk for stronger storms repeats itself. The Marginal (level 1 of 5 risk)
returns for much of the same area with the same storm threats.
Most showers and storms stay south of the Orlando Metro where drier conditions exist behind the front. While the majority of storms are expected in the afternoon and evening again, there is potential for a storm or two across the southern counties in the morning.

Still on the warm side today and Friday with highs U80s-L90s, but Heat Index values drop below 100, and Minor HeatRisk impacts expected for most of the area.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Through the holiday weekend, high pressure over the west Atlantic will build back across Florida, with winds generally out of the S/SE, and an east coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland each afternoon.
Sufficient moisture lingers in the wake of the front to generate isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon with the sea breeze. While shear weakens and temps aloft warm gradually through the period, there will remain the potential for a few stronger storms each day. Hotter conditions return, especially inland where highs will reach the mid 90s, mainly near to northwest of the I-4 corridor.

Another front is forecast to move through the southeast U.S. and approach central Florida into the middle of next week. Temps are forecast to remain above normal with scattered showers and storms continuing each afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances around 50 percent.

MARINE
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Rest of Today-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak front moving into the Treasure Coast waters continues to push south towards the South Florida Atlantic waters by Friday morning.
The front then stalls and lifts north, with high pressure over the west Atlantic building back across the Florida peninsula through the holiday weekend. Winds a bit squirrelly through Friday between the front coming and going and the daily sea breeze circulation, then establishing out of the S/SE at 15 kts or less through much of the weekend and into Memorial Day. Seas will range from 2-4 feet today, falling to 2-3 feet into the weekend.

Generally favorable boating conditions through late week into the holiday weekend, with the exception of a return of developing lightning storms over the waters. A few offshore moving storms, some which may be strong to severe will be possible during the evening hours today and Friday, mainly near to south of the Cape.
Offshore steering winds then weaken into the weekend, which should keep majority of scattered afternoon and evening storms over land.
However, isolated to scattered storms developing over the waters will still be possible.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze collision beginning around 20Z, before moving offshore into the evening hours (2Z). Coverage is now forecast to be south of MCO/ISM, so have removed VCTS mention there. VRB/FPR/SUA are expected to see the most (if any) impact, with TEMPOs included from 21-0Z there for brief reductions in stronger storms. A few storms may approach MLB, so have included VCTS, though this is low confidence.
Easterly flow behind the sea breeze this afternoon will become light and offshore by early in the morning. Light flow will then prevail prior to the sea breeze development late Friday morning, beginning along the coast. Winds 12kts or less, with gusts up to 20kts possible at coastal terminals. Thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z once again Friday along the sea breeze collision.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Today's front pushes into South Florida where is stalls Friday, then lifts back north through the weekend. Despite a gradual moisture return behind the front before it lifts north, increasing temps (highs in the low to mid 90s) will lead to Min RH values still falling as low as 30-40 percent near to NW of I-4 Friday, and 35-45 pct Saturday. This will continue sensitive fire weather conditions across this area, but shifty winds across the interior are forecast to remain around 5-10 mph.

Daily shower and lightning storm chances are forecast to continue across the area today through the holiday weekend and into next week as the front lifts north. Greatest coverage of this activity through late week will occur during the afternoon/evening hours, primarily south of Orlando where a few stronger storms may develop. Shower and storm chances then gradually increase across east central Florida through the holiday weekend and into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 89 70 90 / 20 10 0 20 MCO 71 93 71 94 / 20 30 10 30 MLB 71 88 73 88 / 20 30 10 30 VRB 71 88 72 89 / 30 40 10 30 LEE 70 93 71 95 / 20 20 0 20 SFB 70 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 30 ORL 71 93 72 94 / 20 20 10 30 FPR 71 88 71 90 / 30 50 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.