Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Angleton, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A dangerous weather pattern is beginning to take shape over SE Texas early today with hazardous weather conditions anticipated through late in the work week. A cold front is already making its way through the Brazos Valley early today with reports of flooding already ongoing over Burleson. The environment over SE Texas is poised to be moisture rich and highly optimized for rainfall efficiency. Forecast soundings for this morning will be a textbook example of heavy rainfall. Deep saturation, skinny CAPE profiles with a deep warm cloud layer spanning around 16,000ft. TPWs based on Satellite imagery are already at 2.3 inches, though model guidance indicates that these values could vary from 2.1-2.6 inches at times. These values all fall well beyond the 90th climatological percentile, even exceeding the max/daily max record for this time of the year. The frontal boundary will continue to serve as a lifting mechanism, producing additional showers and thunderstorms as it marches south and eventually stalls over SE Texas, resulting in numerous showers/storms throughout today.
We'll also be underneath the front-right entrance region of a longwave trough aloft as well, which should further enhance rainfall.

The heavy rainfall threat will continue to increase into Tuesday with the introduction of another X-Factor in the forecast. A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is expected to drift north-northeast towards the Texas coastal bend. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how this low will evolve these next few days. It could maintain strength as a low/trough or deepen/strengthen, maybe even undergo tropical development (30% chance from NHC within the next 7 days).
Regardless, it will still lend some hand in enhancing rainfall on Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday as this system tracks eastwards. Such situations like these (low/tropical wave passing through deep tropical airmass) have been efficient rainfall producers in the past, and model QPF totals have shown very impressive amounts over this time frame.

With all this in mind, a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall will be in effect for portions of SE Texas, mainly along the coast, from Monday morning through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2-7 inches are generally forecasted. However, these totals are likely to fall over a very short period, with rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr expected, up to 5"/hr possible, especially near the coast.
As a result, some areas could receive very localized, high-end amounts. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in urban and low lying areas with poor drainage. Prolonged rainfall may also result in rises in rivers, creeks and streams, with runoff becoming more likely as soils become saturated. Moderate Rainfall Risks are seldom issued, only when there is a chance for significant, impactful flooding over the area. For perspective, around 1 out of 5 fatalities from flooding occur on a Moderate risk day. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and remain weather aware!

Strong winds may also develop along the coastline as well from Tuesday night through Thursday, though it is contingent on the strength and positioning of the low/trough. The heavy rainfall threat, broadly speaking, should decline on Thursday, though a Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall will still be in place over the area. The flooding threat should diminish into Friday. Ridging will slowly rebuild over the Gulf with rain chances decreasing into the weekend.

There will also be a moderate to high risk of rip currents for the next several days as well. If you plan to go to the beach, swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur. Above normal tides and some isolated minor coastal flooding will also be possible along the coastline at high tide as well.

03

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-10 are currently moving NE should being to weaken in the next few hours. Winds are generally out of the S/SSE and become light and variable overnight. Expect a lull in precipitation this evening and overnight, before ramping up again tomorrow morning. As the frontal boundary pushes south,from early tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at terminals throughout the day. As for CIGS, an IFR deck is expected to move in from the north tomorrow morning, mainly effecting KCLL, KUTS, and KCXO. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGS are expected tomorrow morning before lifting to low-end VFR in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected early next week. Scattered showers and storms will become more widespread this morning as a weak front stalls out over SE Texas. A low/trough may enter the northwestern Gulf late on Tuesday. This system could bring moderate to strong onshore winds and higher seas late Tuesday night through Thursday. Models are showing a wide range of wind speeds currently, with forecast confidence low at the moment. Regardless, winds could potentially reach 20-30 knots. Gusts to gale cannot be ruled out either. Seas could reach 7-10 feet, potentially up to 14 feet at times. This strong onshore flow will result in a moderate to high risk of rip currents with elevated tides around 3.1-3.5 ft (MLLW). Wednesday and Thursday morning, these water levels could reach 3.8-4.3 ft (MLLW), which may result in minor coastal flooding.

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TROPICAL
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is expected to drift north-northeastward over the next few days. Late Tuesday night into mid week, this feature may move into the northwestern Gulf near the Texas Coastal Bend. Currently this low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, with formation chances from NHC at 30% within the next seven days. Though regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is likely and dangerous marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are expected to be around 2-4"/hr, with 5"/hr possible near the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays late Tuesday night through Thursday. Gusts to gale are possible.
Seas may reach 7 to 10 ft, possibly up to 14 ft.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 80 73 82 74 / 90 70 60 10 Houston (IAH) 84 75 81 75 / 80 80 90 50 Galveston (GLS) 88 80 85 81 / 40 70 90 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.