Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horseshoe Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The first day in a stretch of near-critical to critical fire weather days begins this afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow develops in advance of an approaching cold front. For this afternoon, the fire weather watch across much of southwest Georgia and portions of the Florida Big Bend has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. The warning is in effect for the combination of near-record temperatures, elevated winds, low to critically-low relative humidities, and historic drought (leading to near-record fuel availability) in place. While the forecast conditions across much of Red Flag Warning are not necessarily exactly at our criteria, the combination of the aforementioned factors will lead to a heightened fire weather environment that could aid in the rapid spread of new and/or existing fires. Additionally, fire activity over the last few days has seen a notable uptick as days without wetting rains continue to increase.

Outside of the Red Flag Warning, fire weather concerns will remain elevated and at near-critical levels given the increasing wind field ahead of our next front. However, in many of these areas, low-level moisture return will be high enough above Red Flag criteria to not necessitate an issuance today.

The cold front will approach the region tonight, with fire weather concerns subsiding overnight as relative humidities recover nicely in advance of the front. By daybreak Sunday, an ongoing line of showers will be positioned stretching across the deep south from Tennessee to southern Alabama and Mississippi. Any rain will likely hold off until daybreak Sunday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The cold front will be on our doorstep Sunday, along with a line of showers, but these will likely be decreasing in intensity and coverage as they move steadily south and east through the morning.
While the shower activity will weaken, the winds and advection of much drier conditions will not. The post-frontal environment on Sunday is what will bring our second round of fire weather concerns.

Sunday will bring the most challenging forecast regarding overall fire concerns. While afternoon relative humidities will plummet into the 20 to 30% range in the afternoon, and sustained winds around 15 mph (with gusts of 20 to 25 mph) will move in, cloud cover and cooler temperatures will likely go against more critical concerns. Additionally, morning rainfall amounts across southeast Alabama and portions of southwest GA could affect how expansive the critical concerns end up being. We contemplated a watch for this update, but given the greater uncertainty for Sunday, will hold off for now. However, if post-frontal winds are stronger and cloud cover ends up being thinner, it would not be surprising to see Sunday as another critical fire weather day.

Fire concerns will remain elevated into the overnight hours of Sunday into Monday as poor relative humidity recoveries are likely given continued winds overnight and the advection of drier air.
Moving into Monday, this is when we'll most likely see the highest fire risks as elevated winds (15 mph w/gusts to 20 or 25 mph) behind the front, and much lower relative humidity (bottoming out to around 15 to 20%) develops.

After a stretch of critical fire weather days, fire weather concerns remain elevated through next week in the absence of any rain, but some low-level moisture return and lighter winds will keep more critical concerns from developing. Unfortunately, as surface high pressure fills in to the region, any widespread rains are not likely and much of the region will continue to go without rain the next seven days.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Prevailing VFR expected for much of this TAF cycle outside of brief periods of reduced vsbys/cigs invof ECP/DHN/TLH this morning and ECP/DHN tmrw morning. Winds increase out of the SW today near 10 kts, then start shifting to northwesterly very late tonight in response to an approaching front near the end of the period.
Ceilings are fcst to lower to MVFR at DHN/ECP as well. Light showers may need to be intro'd in the 18Z package during frontal passage.

MARINE
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A bubble of high pressure will remain anchored over the northeast Gulf through this evening, supporting variable winds with dominant nearshore afternoon seabreezes. Then, a cold front will quickly sweep across the waters during the day on Sunday, followed at first by strong northerly winds. Strong breezes will clock around easterly by Tuesday, as high pressure passes by to the north. Advisory level conditions are likely beginning Sunday afternoon and persisting into at late Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and is in effect for portions of the Florida Big Bend and east of the Flint River in Georgia, where RH will tank to near or below 30 percent, where wind will exceed 12 mph, where dispersion will exceed 90, where temperatures will reach 88-92 degrees (within a few degrees of record highs), and where the Hot Dry Windy Index exceeds the 90th percentile at a time of year when its climatology is already nearing its annual peak in early May.

A dry cold front on Sunday will bring northerly afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 mph, and RH will be dropping in the afternoon as a drier air mass arrives. Lingering cloud cover and shading of fuels will be the main inhibitor to active fire behavior on Sunday, but critical conditions remain possible Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, a very dry air mass will overspread the region, with minimum relative humidities commonly in the 15-20 percent range.
Sustained northeast winds will be near 10 to 15 mph and support extremely high dispersion. Full sunshine, seasonably warm late April temperatures, and ongoing drought will all contribute to a critical fire environment. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday where winds are currently forecast to exceed 15 mph, and the watch could be expanded in later forecast updates.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Little to no rain is expected for the next 7 days. Any rain with the cold front on Sunday will by a hydrologically insignificant and a quarter-inch or less. Drought conditions will continue or worsen.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 88 64 79 54 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 81 66 76 55 / 0 0 20 0 Dothan 86 61 71 50 / 0 10 20 0 Albany 89 63 73 50 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 91 62 82 52 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 90 61 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 67 78 58 / 0 0 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ013-016>019-027-326-426.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for GAZ143>147-155>160.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125-127>131-145>148-156>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772.