Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horseshoe Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Temperatures will be above normal this afternoon as surface high pressure remains in control. Similar to the last few days, areas of fog in the morning will scour out as mostly clear skies develop.
Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s but a few locations could touch 90 today, especially across southern Georgia.

Like yesterday, afternoon humidities will drop to around 30-40%, and with elevated southerly winds around 10 mph and dry fuels, fire weather concerns will remain elevated.

For tonight, another round of patchy/areas of fog will develop, with the highest probabilities for dense fog across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

An extended period of high to critical fire danger will develop across the region beginning on Saturday and last into Monday. While the most critical fire weather concerns will likely be on Monday, each day will bring a unique set of factors contributing to our lengthiest stretch of fire weather concerns this season.

Saturday's fire weather concerns will revolve around near-record temperatures across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend as warm southwesterly flow in advance of an approaching cold front develops. Winds will also begin to increase compared to Friday's values with sustained values around 10 mph and frequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph. These speeds, when combined with the relative humidity in place across the drier/warmer areas (around 25 to 30%), lead to hot- dry-windy-index values in or exceeding the 90th percentile across portions of the area. The greatest fire weather concerns will be across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend where moisture advection in advance of the cold front will be slow to materialize.
Further west, fire weather concerns remain elevated, but the moisture advection in advance of the front will likely keep higher fire danger from developing with relative humidities staying above 35%.

The front continues to move southeast on Sunday and the contributing factor to fire risks shifts to wind. Much of the rainfall will stay well off to the northwest of our forecast area, but if southeast Alabama, the Panhandle, and portions of southwest Georgia can get some rain Sunday morning, amounts are likely to be very light and less than a tenth of an inch. Given dry conditions this will not reduce fire risks much. Post-frontal winds on Sunday will be much higher than Saturday's values and many locations will see sustained winds around 15 mph, especially in southeast Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Frequent gusts region wide of 20 to 25 mph can be expected. The main limiting factor to critical fire risks on Sunday will be cloud cover and cool air advection behind the front.
However, critical conditions can't be ruled out depending on the evolution of cloud cover and temperatures on Sunday. Additionally, the continued advection of dry air overnight and elevated winds will lead to fire risks continuing into the overnight hours as poor relative humidity recovery is forecast.

Lastly, for Monday, the primary contributing factor to overall fire risks will be very dry air filtering into the region along with mostly clear skies. Current forecast relative humidities are around 15 to 20% across the region Monday afternoon but we would not be surprised to see localized areas briefly dropping into the low teens if temperatures are warmer and sufficient post-frontal mixing can occur. An additional point of concern will be the winds. While current forecast winds around 10 mph (with gusts to 15 mph) are not typical of critical fire weather concerns, these speeds are very concerning when accounting for the very low relative humidity, and near-record fuel availability (given ERC values near climatological maxima).

Given these conditions extreme caution needs to be taken the next few days. Please listen closely to the advice of local officials regarding burn bans as any new fire starts will have the ability to spread very quickly.

After Monday, elevated fire danger will likely remain as long as rain stays out of the forecast. Tuesday through Thursday will see a moderating trend in afternoon humidities and warming temperatures. It's possible some rain chances return to the forecast by Wednesday/Thursday but that will depend on the evolution of the upper level pattern which remains highly uncertain into next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Prevailing VFR conds expected for much of this TAF period. The main exceptions are at ECP/TLH thru the morning hrs when fog/low stratus develops in and around those terminals. Highest confidence in most degraded flt restrictions is at ECP (LIFR-VLIFR). An aftn seabreeze affects the FL sites with a southerly wind approaching 10 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A bubble of high pressure will remain anchored over the northeast Gulf through Saturday evening, supporting variable winds with dominant nearshore afternoon seabreezes. Then a cold front will quickly sweep across the waters during the day on Sunday, followed at first by strong northerly winds. Strong breezes will clock around easterly by Tuesday, as high pressure passes by to the north.
Advisory conditions can be expected Sunday into Monday

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A persistently warm and dry air mass will continue through Saturday, with prominent afternoon seabreezes spreading inland from the coast.
Dense morning fog is expected Friday and Saturday mornings over Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and far southwest Georgia districts.

A critical fire weather pattern will begin to take shape beginning Saturday and last into Monday. Before a cold front moves through on Sunday, near-record temperatures across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia combined with 10 to 15 mph winds will lead to near- critical fire weather concerns on Saturday. Further west across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, pre-frontal humidity will prevent these near-critical concerns from developing.

The approaching front could bring rain, but it's likely to be light and come up well short of a quarter-inch wetting rain. Strong, gusty north winds will fill in behind the front on Sunday afternoon with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 mph expected. However, cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover could keep critical concerns from developing. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are forecast Sunday night into Monday. By Monday, a very dry air mass will encompass the entire region, concurrent with gusty northeast winds peaking in strength. On Monday especially, any new fire starts will have potential to spread rapidly in the warm dry northeasterly wind.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Little to no rain is expected for the next 7 days. Any rain with the cold front on Sunday will by a hydrologically insignificant quarter-inch or less. Drought conditions will continue or worsen.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 58 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 64 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 89 58 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 89 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 92 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 58 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 63 79 67 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.