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GMZ775 Expires:202312020415;;715078 Fzus52 Ktae 011502 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 1002 am est Fri dec 1 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-755-765-775-020415- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1002 am est Fri dec 1 2023
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers early this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1002 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
southerly winds will prevail today through the weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels with exercise caution conditions possible over the next few days. SEveral periods of showers and Thunderstorms are expected over the waters through the weekend, some of which may produce gusty winds and waterspouts. The front is expected to move through the region overnight Sunday into Monday. This will lead to winds clocking around to the north- northwest through midweek. Rain chances increase throughout the day today and will remain elevated through Sunday night. After frontal passage on Monday, precip chances drop to near 0%.

FXUS62 KTAE 011458 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 958 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 944 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Showers and storms will begin to push into the region from the west later today. While there is currently a layer of stable air at the surface, forecast soundings show an erosion of this layer by daytime heating and advection of a more unstable, moist airmass from the southwest. Once that CIN is overcome, surface based convection will be possible. Primary hazards will likely be gusty winds and heavy rainfall, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Overnight satellite and surface observations show a well-defined surface low moving NNE from the South-Central Plains towards the Midwest with an attendant warm front stretching across the northern Gulf Coast. A large area of convection has been ongoing just along the boundary while steadily moving eastward. As the low continues gaining latitude, the warm front will lift northward, thus prompting a rapid surge in dewpoints from upper 40s/low 50s to widespread 60s by midday via very efficient southerly moisture advection. At the same time, a robust south-southwesterly LLJ aims to strengthen and spread east from the MS Valley in response to a tightening pressure gradient. The combination of a quickly moistening and eventual destabilizing airmass amidst an increasingly sheared environment opens the door for an isolated severe weather and heavy rainfall threat through the near-term period.

Severe weather: The SPC Day 1 Outlook has much of the FL Panhandle & SE AL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Main threats are damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Limiting factors are fleeting upper-level support well to our north and modest instability at best. It seems that strong wind shear will have to "carry the load" for convection to organize via rotating updrafts with supercell development possible in the warm sector. The 6Z HRRR 48-hr run shows semi-organized showers/storms moving towards the western I-10 corridor and Wiregrass Region with additional activity extending offshore. The eastern extent of an apparent weakening precipitation shield spreads farther eastward this evening, followed by maritime convection brushing the Forgotten Coast into Apalachee Bay later tonight. A brief lull then occurs overnight before a larger wave of convection approaches from the west towards daybreak on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall: Given the described trends above, the WPC trimmed its Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall southward closer to the Gulf coast, so that now only the Western FL Panhandle and a sliver of Geneva County are in it. Localized flooding is possible in those areas from either training convection or high rain rates in a short amount of time. The highest PoPs today are across the western half of the service area with the greatest axis of precipitation setting up from SW to NE tonight.

Temperatures are forecast to be warm by early December standards.
Highs are in the 70s with isolated spots along the I-75 corridor down the Eastern FL Big Bend potentially reaching 80 degrees.
Widespread 60s are expected for overnight lows - quite the change from the freezing to near-freezing conditions we experienced the previous two days!

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

The SPC maintains a marginal risk for the western half of our area on Saturday as a second wave of convection looks to move across the region. Not associated with Friday's shortwave, this secondary ripple along the 500mb rides over the top of the ridge to the east, pushing through a cluster of PV across the region. This will aid with forcing for a ascent along with a strengthening jet streak aloft. The LLJ, after a brief weakening Saturday morning, restrengthens Saturday afternoon across the region, leading to increased shear. With expected PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, the possibility for low-end severe is present, particularly across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama. This is where MLCAPE appears to peak Saturday afternoon at around 500 J/kg, it's not great, but may be just enough to squeeze out one or two strong to severe storms over the aforementioned area. Otherwise, expect this weekend's rains to begin winding down Sunday evening and be nearly completely out of the area overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 70s with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s on Sunday and in the 50s Monday morning.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Post-frontal, the long term will be quiet, cool, and dry. With surface high pressure moving in behind this weekend's cold front, northerly flow will pull south cold and dry air. On Wednesday another cold front, this time a dry front, will move through the region, further reinforcing the cold air strangle over the region.
Dry conditions are expected to persist through the entire work week.

Expect daytime highs, initially in the mid to upper 60s, to drop throughout the week, ending up in the mid 50s to low 60s by Thursday. Likewise, overnight lows will initially be in the low to mid 40s, dropping into the mid to upper 30s by Thursday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Mainly VFR conds are being observed this morning with thick mid to upper clouds head of a batch convection across the Lower MS Valley.
Used the latest HRRR to time the onset of precip, which is the aftn for DHN/ECP and early evening for the remaining terminals.
Main concerns are southerly LLWS the next couple hrs at all but TLH/VLD, and thunder. The latter is most likely at DHN/ECP where 20-24Z TEMPOs are now in place and PROB30s hold at TLH/ABY. South winds 10-12 kts with cigs as low as IFR late tonight, esp west.

MARINE
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Southerly winds will prevail through the weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels with exercise caution conditions possible over the next few days. The front is expected to move through the region overnight Sunday into Monday. This will lead to winds clocking around to being out of the north-northwest through midweek. Rain chances increase throughout the day today and will remain elevated through Sunday night. After frontal passage on Monday, precip chances drop to near 0%.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Rainy conditions preclude fire weather concerns through the weekend. The best precipitation chances today are in the western half of the service area, particularly over SE AL and the FL Panhandle. Even if locations east of the Apalachicola River miss out on rainfall, the airmass will be unseasonably moist with thick cloud cover. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected late tonight, Saturday, and Sunday thanks to a frontal boundary slated to stall across the region.
Widespread wetting rains are likely. Isolated severe weather and localized flooding are possible. Dry conditions arrive by Monday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 354 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Wetter weather is on the way for the first weekend of December Latest forecast amounts are still in the general 1" to 4" range with higher amounts possible in the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. Localized flooding is possible, especially in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas. Locations that experience heavy rain rates in a short period of time or training convection are also vulnerable, which current models suggest would be along the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

The WPC currently has the FL Panhandle under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. Meanwhile the rest of the region, aside from the SE Florida Big Bend, are within the marginal risk tomorrow.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 65 75 67 / 40 70 80 80 Panama City 75 67 74 65 / 70 90 100 90 Dothan 74 65 72 65 / 80 90 100 90 Albany 73 64 72 65 / 40 80 90 90 Valdosta 77 64 76 66 / 10 50 70 70 Cross City 80 62 80 66 / 10 20 30 40 Apalachicola 73 67 73 66 / 50 60 80 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ770-772.

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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:56 PM EST     1.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet

Fishermans Rest
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Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:02 PM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishermans Rest, Florida, Tide feet

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