Tuesday, March2, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Isle, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday March 2, 2021 11:12 AM CST (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:52PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:202103022230;;352325 Fzus54 Klix 020929 Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service New Orleans La 329 Am Cst Tue Mar 2 2021 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-022230- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 329 Am Cst Tue Mar 2 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 9 am cst this morning through this afternoon...
Today..North winds 20 to 25 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 329 Am Cst Tue Mar 2 2021
Synopsis..A low pressure system will move through the northern gulf along a stalled front today. Offshore flow will return behind the low as high pressure builds in from the northwest on later today and Wednesday. High pressure will move east across the region Thursday and early Friday, then another low pressure system is expected to move through the north gulf on Friday night and Saturday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Isle, LA
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location: 29.2, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 021707 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1107 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

MORNING UPDATE.

A rather chilly, raw morning has been colder than forecast from earlier, and that trend will likely carry forward for the highs this afternoon since low clouds are expected to remain in place. The other trend is the rain and isolated thunderstorms appear to be moving through faster, so the lowering of rain chances this afternoon needed to be accelerated, and may need another update around midday if current trends continue. Low clouds should finally clear out late morning to early afternoon on Wednesday, leading to a nice stretch of early spring weather going through Thursday into most of Friday before the next system briefly impacts our area with more rain. 22/TD

MARINE.

It's a complex forecast to issue all the headlines appropriately to match the conditions today. Have the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions lowering to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) over most tidal lakes and sounds during the midday to early afternoon hours then picking up as the low pressure system moves east late in the afternoon and tonight. Some of this trend will also occur over the open coastal waters, however rather than issue numerous headlines have opted to push the SCA that was due to expire at 9 am out into tonight and expand it to include all sounds and lakes to keep it less complicated. 22/TD

AVIATION.

Fairly steady state IFR conditions with regards to CIGS are expected to continue at most airports through most of the 18z TAF forecast period through Wednesday morning. Visibilities may fluctuate during remaining rain through midday to mid afternoon, then some lower visibility may also occur at times after the rain ends. An isolated TS may still occur through 18-20z or so over mainly KMSY/KNEW/KASD eastward. Conditions will be improving with drier air and clouds clearing out from west to east during late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday. North to northeast winds may continue to gust up to near 20 knots at an airport or two early on, then with another anticipate increase in winds late this afternoon and evening. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 311 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday) . The current upper level setup shows a broad trough in the northeastern CONUS, a weaker low tracking across north Texas/south OK, and a retreating ridge in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The weak low will be tracking east through the Arklatex region and across the lower Mississippi River Valley. This position in combination with cyclogenesis in the northern Gulf of Mexico will promote shower and thunderstorm development. The greatest height falls and surface convergence will take place late morning through early afternoon. Thus, this is when the forecast area will see the greatest coverage, basically 100%, and most intense rain. Looking and an inch or so generally speaking across the CWA. A glance at CAMS indicates higher end QPF will be upwards of 4+ inches. This would obviously be isolated and fairly low PW's expected will limit overall high QPF coverage. Global and meso models hint at a SW to NE swath from BTR to New Orleans as the region where the highest amounts of rain will likely fall today.

The remainder of this evening through Wednesday will be characterized by high pressure building in, drying out, and cooling down. Expect temps to remain below normal for the day on Wednesday before rebounding back above normal Thursday as upper level ridge builds in across the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley. Steered high temps closer to the warmer MEX guidance as it has been doing better with warming up period vs the NBM.

MEFFER

LONG TERM (Friday through Monday) . Going into Friday, focus shifts to the west as a closed upper-level low (transitioning into a positive-tilted shortwave trough) and attendant surface low approaches the area from the northwest. Recent runs of the GFS is back to flip flopping yet again introducing a bit more QPF to the area, which makes sense investigating the dynamics downstream of the trough, as well as noticing a faster trend with the system as well. ECMWF solutions also continue to hold tight on this same idea which have pulled the blends back into the 30-50% range. Will let this ride with no major changes in this time frame. Without getting too specific, it is likely we will be dealing with a very dry low-level troposphere out ahead of the system characterized by lingering subsidence from recent ridging/high pressure across the area, with means some of this precipitation may take a while to work down to the surface. Regardless, liking the idea of relatively light QPF at this time, with 0.10 to 0.25" totals. Otherwise, this system is fast to depart along a progressive NW to SE flow dominating the eastern US this weekend with calm and dry conditions and warming temperatures expected. Still seeing long-range indications of a high amplitude pattern setting up across the CONUS by the middle of next week, with 588dm heights building back into the area leading to the possibility of above-normal temperatures. Something to watch for now.

KLG

AVIATION . IFR conditions due to CIGS will remain through the day into a portion of the overnight. All terminals will have -SHRA most if not all day with a few TSRA possible as well. This activity moves east by this evening while low cigs hang back for the night into Wed morning but clearing with VFR conditions will move in from west to east during the day Wed.

MARINE . The cold front that moved over the northern gulf last night has stalled and a low pressure system is forming along the front which will pass through the waters this morning. Offshore flow will return behind the front as high pressure builds in from the northwest on Tuesday night through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening then drying out Wednesday and Thursday. Moderate/gusty offshore winds are expected tonight and Wednesday morning before winds and waves subside Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Light southerly flow will begin early Friday morning and rise to around 15kt later in the day ahead of the next system that should affect the northern gulf Friday into early Saturday. Strong northeasterly winds around 25kt could occur over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 50 37 63 37 / 100 0 0 0 BTR 53 40 64 39 / 100 0 0 0 ASD 53 40 64 39 / 100 10 0 0 MSY 54 44 62 46 / 100 10 0 0 GPT 52 41 63 41 / 100 20 0 0 PQL 52 41 63 40 / 100 30 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ530.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 7 mi139 min 16 G 24 66°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 22 mi131 min NNE 33 G 38 58°F 1017.1 hPa54°F
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 39 mi133 min 24 G 26
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 39 mi139 min NE 22 G 27 54°F 43°F
PILL1 42 mi139 min ENE 14 G 21 55°F 42°F1018.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 45 mi139 min NE 9.9 G 19 49°F 65°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA20 mi14 minNE 11 G 1810.00 miLight Drizzle52°F48°F88%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXPY

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Tide / Current Tables for Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caminada Pass (bridge)
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Tue -- 03:29 AM CST     0.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM CST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:45 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:52 PM CST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:44 PM CST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bayou Rigaud
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:16 PM CST     0.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:14 PM CST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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