Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jamaica Beach, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Deep LL onshore flow is pushing a warm, moisture rich air mass into our region from the Gulf. We have this moisture to thank (at least in part) for Friday's showers and thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis shows a Gulf surge of 1.5 to 1.7 inch PWAT values, meaning that Saturday's atmosphere will be just as moisture rich as Friday's. However, the southeast Texas atmosphere should experience less synoptic ascent on Saturday, suggesting less widespread shower / thunderstorm activity. Even so, we still expect scattered activity Saturday morning and afternoon, especially across our western zones where the highest PWAT values are expected. It is important to remember that even isolated showers/storms can result in locally heavy rainfall when the atmosphere is rich in PWAT. As for temperatures, expect highs once again the low 80s for most locations.

Synoptic forcing will be more robust on Sunday due to the approach of a ML shortwave from Mexico. This should result in higher rain and thunderstorm chances across our region, particularly in our northern and western counties. HRRR members are more unstable on Sunday, showing a decent shot of 1000+ j/kg CAPE for most of the CWA, with some potential for over 2000 j/kg in our northwestern zones. We also expect an enhanced LL jet as the shortwave induced LL pressure falls over central and west Texas. The jet will be strongest over central and north Texas, with peak shear occurring in the morning. This technically places the best shear environment to our north and west, and before peak daytime heating / instability. But even so, I think there will be some shear to work with Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our western counties in a Level 1 of 5 threat of severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary concerns. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has placed our northern zones in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall. The northwesternmost corner of our CWA (near College Station) is under a Level 2 of 4 risk.

As we head into next week, the pattern is expected to be dominated by a strong mid/upper ridge over the Gulf, and a sfc high near SE CONUS. This pattern supports a humid and increasingly warm weather regime as the week progresses. Most inland areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s by Wednesday. By the end of the week, many spots could be approaching 90. Considering afternoon dew points are expected to be near 70 degrees across the region, the late week air mass may feel more summer-like than spring-like. Tis a reminder that summer approaches.

Self

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MVFR-IFR CIGs should slowly scatter & lift through the late morning as light showers develop across the region. Models show different levels of coverage/frequency in these showers, thus have opted for VCSH wording with prob30s/tempos for -SHRA. VFR conditions should mostly return in the afternoon, though it is possible that some brief MVFR CIGs will develop from passing showers. Thunderstorm potential is overall low for this afternoon, with the best chances for thunder generally around KCLL. Showers should taper off in the evening with another round of MVFR-IFR CIGs developing overnight into Sunday morning.

03

MARINE
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An enhance east to southeast 15-20 knot (occasionally higher) wind fetch will continue across the northern Gulf through at least the middle of next week. This will result in periods of enhanced waves and swell, along with elevated water levels during high tide.
Water levels are forecast to peak near 3.0 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) over the next few days, which may inundate the lowest most vulnerable coastal spots. But for now, our forecast keeps water levels below Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds.
Afternoon winds could gust over 25 knots, especially in upper bays. Seas are forecast to average in the 4-6 foot range over the Gulf. But we cannot rule out occasionally higher seas, especially more than 20 NM offshore. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. We are monitoring a risk of a few heavier thunderstorms on Sunday. As of now, the highest risk of heavy thunderstorms is well north of the coast.
But something worth monitoring.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 81 68 79 69 / 50 10 80 50 Houston (IAH) 82 70 81 71 / 50 10 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 77 72 78 72 / 40 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.