Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jamaica Beach, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

It's your typical hot, humid summer day, marred here and there with some showers and thunderstorms, but subsidence from the subtropical ridge is just strong enough to largely keep afternoon convection at bay. The most activity this afternoon really is out over the waters of the Gulf, while we're seeing no more than speckles of tiny showers over Southeast Texas.

Looking forward, I don't really see that changing much for the next couple days. Tomorrow looks to me very much like a repeat of today. Some pre-dawn stratus and patchy fog, primarily farther inland, while showers/storms are over the Gulf. Through the morning, we see some coastal showers and the development of cumulus across the area while we warm up to the lower 90s and 100+ heat index values. Showers and storms, generally isolated, should gradually spread inland along the seabreeze front. Much like today, I think we'll struggle to get much of anything, but a few lucky? unlucky? Depends on your perspective, I suppose - folks get a quick hitter of rain and maybe a lightning strike or two.

Tomorrow looks even more like a win for subsidence as the peak of the subtropical ridge drifts across the region and off to the Deep South, strengthening slightly as it does so. Because of that, I've got PoPs that are higher than zero, but not high enough to merit even a description of "slight chance". I think we'll struggle to get much of anything to pop up on Saturday. We should still see plenty of friendly afternoon cumulus to keep temps from rising too much, but I could see them pushing a bit closer to the mid-90s.
Fortunately, this should also help afternoon dewpoints mix out pretty well, so peak heat index values might even nudge down slightly, but still around/just above 100.

Once the peak of the ridge aloft moves farther east of us, we're going to see a change in the pattern. That ridging will park over the Eastern US and amplify, while troughing digs in over the western US. In response, we should see gradually afternoon convection gradually become more effective as we head into next week, with greater coverage in storms by the middle of the week.
Ultimately...this is probably going to be not super noticeable to most folks unless you are an absolute weather sicko (like me!).
Those watching closely will definitely see the trend of increasing coverage of daily convection, but there's no indication in any of the ensemble systems that this will rise up out of the realm of typical summer behavior.

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Isolated tsra will diminish this evening. MVFR conditions, with localized IFR, possible again late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Best chance of sub-VFR will be across our northern terminals (CLL, UTS, and CXO). Tomorrow is expected to be similar to today. Wind start out more southerly, before increasing and becoming more southeasterly. Isolated tsra possible once again during the afternoon. Couldn't rule out a morning coastal shower.

MARINE
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

South and southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range, occasionally slightly above 15 knots, should generally prevail through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain a daily possibility.

At the coast, beach patrols flying yellow on the island today so no rip current statement at the moment. However, potential for rips remains high into the weekend, so that may be needed in the future. Tide levels are above astronomical norms due to the persistent onshore flow. Over the next several days, astronomical levels will be rising, so high tides will also rise accordingly.
Should still be below any sort of advisory threshold, but will be creeping closer to 3 feet above MLLW in the days to come.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 76 92 75 92 / 20 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 92 78 93 / 10 30 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 81 89 / 20 20 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.