Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holly Hill, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current-Tonight...Some light rain around earlier today in response to weak isentropic lift across the area. Otherwise a pleasant day with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. Weak high pressure influence across the region with onshore (ENE/NE) winds increasing to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. The former frontal boundary across south FL will begin to lift back northward late today/tonight as winds begin to respond by veering ESE/SE in advance/passage into Sun morning. Flow "backs" slightly SW aloft with embedded weak impulses in the flow, as 500 mb temps cool to around -12C.

Surface heating and modest moisture, with some late day boundary collisions should promote scattered shower and lightning storm chances this afternoon and evening. Storm steering is out of the SSW at 10-15 mph. In general, storm threats include lightning strikes, gusty winds locally 35-45 mph, heavy downpours, and small hail.
However, the Storms Prediction Center has recently placed southern Brevard County, southern Osceola County, Okeechobee County, and the Treasure Coast under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. So, cannot rule out a storm or two with winds to 60 mph and hail to quarter- size. Activity over land mostly dissipates thru mid-late evening, though cannot rule out an isolated shower overnight. Highest rain chances over/near the coast, but the majority of convection will be across the local coastal waters later tonight. Coverage generally 40 to near 60% this aftn/early evening - highest southward. PoPs tonight 20-50pct - highest for coastal Martin County.

Lows tonight in the 60s areawide and conditions humid. Some models suggest patchy fog across the interior overnight into early Sun morning. Have recently added PFog mention in the grids/zones to account for this potential. Should fog develop, visibilities less than one mile are possible.

Sun-Mon...An unsettled weather pattern will exist across the area into early next week. A large upper trough across the central CONUS will push a strong cold front through central FL Mon night into early Tue. Strong to marginally severe lightning storms will be possible each afternoon/evening. 500 mb temps will approach -12C to -13C. Subtle impulses embedded in the SWRLY flow aloft will aid convection both days. PWATs will surge northward Sun aftn 1.55-1.80" areawide. Precip chances increase during the day on Sun to 70-80% areawide, 40-60% Sun night, and 70-80% again on Mon (pre-frontal).
Shower and storm chances diminish Mon night (north to south) with the front's passage. Storm steering will be toward the NE on Sun 20- 25 mph and continuing NE on Mon racing at 35 to 45 mph.

SSE/S winds on Sun will approach 10-15 mph with higher gusts. These winds continue 5-10 mph into Sun night, while just off of the surface 925 mb winds increase to 25-30 kts by daybreak Mon morning.
Surface winds on Mon become SWRLY and increase to nearly 20 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts likely to 25 to 35 mph. W/NW winds remain elevated into Mon night as the front sweeps through.
Storm threats on Sun entail frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-55 mph locally - perhaps one or two storms to 60 mph, torrential downpours, and coin-size hail. Shear looks more favorable for Mon with moderate instability and the potential severe threat could be more organized. A tornado cannot be ruled out on Mon, though this remains a secondary threat presently.

From previous discussion...Repeated storms over urban and poorly drained locales may cause some minor flooding. The REFS suggests a reasonable high-end of 3-4" rainfall totals (10% chance) with areal averages closer to 0.25-1".

High temperatures remain quite warm and above climo, in the L-M80s both days with a few U80s possibly sprinkled in (interior north of Sun & south of a Kenansville-Melbourne line on Mon). Lows well into the 60s Mon morning and continued muggy.

Remainder of Next Week
Previous Modified Discussion
Winter makes a comeback, as much colder air pours down the peninsula thru at least mid-week. Most likely wind chills on Tue morning slip into the U30s from Daytona Beach to Leesburg, and highs on Tue may struggle into the U50s to around 60F along/north of I-4, with L-M60s southward. Much of the interior and Volusia County should fall into the 40s on Wed morning, with L-M50s elsewhere. There is a 30-40% chance of reaching the U30s north of Leesburg to Ormond Beach.

Much of ECFL looks dry on Tue, outside of showery precip across local waters adjacent to the Treasure Coast. Confidence trails off thereafter as a mid-level trough lingers. While the highest coverage of rain from Wed through next Fri looks to reside over South Florida, statistical guidance still paints 20-40% rain chances over the Treasure Coast on Wed, expanding to areas southeast of I-4 on Thu. The disturbance responsible for this activity should exit on Fri, with only low shower chances lingering at the coast.

High temps remain a few to several degrees below normal on Wed/Thu (U60s to L70s) before moderating closer to normal on Fri (M-U70s).
There is a 60-80% chance of reaching 80 degrees once again nearly areawide by next Sat.

MARINE
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Slowly improving boating conditions as seas subside to 4-5 ft areawide becoming 3-4 ft by daybreak Sun morning. NE/ENE winds 10- 15 kts continue to veer to SE/SSE also by early morning Sun as a weak boundary lifts northward across the waters. The pressure gradient tightens thru the day on Sun with southerly winds increasing to 14-18 kts in the afternoon. Winds continue to veer (SSW/SW) and strengthen during the day on Mon 15-25 kts, highest across the offshore waters. A strong cold front will push across the waters Mon night veering winds (18-25 kts) further to NW. Some gusts could approach Gale Force. Northerly winds Tue veer NE Tue night- Thu. Very little improvement in wind speeds early-mid week.
Seas begin to respond Mon aftn thru Tue. Expect headlines for poor to hazardous boating conditions for early to mid week.

Increasing shower and lightning storm threat this weekend thru Mon.
Some storms may be strong to severe Sun afternoon-evening, and again on Mon. Storm threats include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, small to coin-size hail, heavy downpours, and cannot rule out a few waterspouts.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Convection is primarily over south/western portions of the Florida peninsula this evening. However, some SHRA/TSRA are moving up toward Martin county from South Florida, and may impact the terminals over the next hour or two. Have included VCSH from TIX southward through 03Z. Easterly winds 08-13KT with gusts up to 20 KT this evening will become light and turn SE overnight. There is still a low to moderate chance (20-40%) for IFR- LIFR CIGs to develop at KMCO/KISM/KLEE/KSFB 09Z-14Z. Otherwise, VCR. Showers will develop along the coast by mid morning with VCSH starting 14/15Z for coastal terminals. TSRA expected Sunday afternoon/evening across much of ECFL, and +TSRA possible in the evening. Have included VCTS starting at 19Z for inland terminals and 18Z for coastal sites. Have not included any TEMPOs for convection at this time. South to southeast east winds will increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 18-23KT possible, mainly along the coast. Models indicate that any lingering SHRA/TSRA will dissipate or move out of the area by late evening on Sunday, with winds becoming light once again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 84 65 84 / 20 70 50 80 MCO 67 85 68 83 / 20 80 40 80 MLB 67 83 67 84 / 30 70 50 80 VRB 66 83 67 86 / 40 70 60 80 LEE 65 85 67 81 / 10 80 50 80 SFB 65 86 67 84 / 20 70 50 80 ORL 66 85 67 84 / 20 80 50 80 FPR 65 83 66 86 / 40 70 60 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.