SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

During this period, tropical cyclone Francine will stall over the Gulf Coast region while weakening. Meanwhile, the onshore flow pattern across our area will gradually weaken, while a weak area of low pressure develops well offshore E of SE GA Friday night. Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms are expected each day. High temperatures Thursday will be in the lower 80s s-ctrl GA, mid 80s elsewhere across se GA and much of ne FL, with upper 80s possible in our southern counties.
On Friday, high temperatures increase slightly to the mid 80s across se GA upper 80s across ne FL with 90 degrees in our southern counties.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

All that will be left from Francine by Saturday is an upper level trough that will shift eastward over the southeastern U.S. during this period. This pattern would support greater precipitation coverage over the coastal waters than over land. Even so, latest guidance maintains at least chance POPs each day for much of the forecast area. Little temperature change is expected during this period, with daily high temperatures in the lower-mid 80s se GA, mid-upper 80s ne FL...and low temperatures in the

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Degraded flight conditions continue with a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity. Predominant MVFR ceilings with occasional periods of IFR conditions (cig & vis) with repeating rounds of heavy showers moving onshore. Highest confidence of IFR impacts over the next six hours will occur at the coastal airfields, with the exception of KSSI. TSRA potential cannot be ruled out, however, the confidence is below justifiably mentioning anything beyond vicinity at this time; amendments may be needed. Easterly winds will become increasingly gusty with peak gusts 20-30 knots near the coast and 15-20 knots inland today.
Outside of shower influence, there is a moderate chance (40-60%)
of MVFR conditions and waves of showers this evening and overnight.



MARINE
Issued at 453 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Frontal boundary south of the waters through tonight will begin to move back into the northeast florida towards Friday as high pressure shifts from the north to the north northeast off the New England coast and Tropical Cyclone Francine moves well to the west of the region into the lower Mississippi valley. East to northeasterly elevated winds and seas will continue small craft advisory conditions over the Georgia waters into the northeast florida waters through tonight before shifting into the offshore waters through Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes over the region while small craft exercise caution conditions remain over the southern waters through late tonight. Waves of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue through the week. High pressure will remain anchored to the north northeast through the weekend as the front lifts into the Southeast Georgia waters.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip current is expected for all area beaches today and as high pressure builds to the north northeast.
A high risk will remain in effect Thursday as the onshore flow turns more easterly. Rough surf up to 6 ft is also expected through Wednesday at all area beaches.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 453 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

HRRR guidance shows a good signal for another 2-4 inches of rainfall today for the entire NE FL coast to the St Johns river with high end amounts of 4-6 inches possible, so have expanded the Flood watch to include all of Duval and all of Nassau county where heavy rain bands managed to drop 2-3 inches of rainfall yesterday along the Nassau river and between Jax Beach and Ponte Vedra Beach west to near I-95. The flood watch will continue through Thursday evening as additional rainfall Thursday will affect these locations including Jacksonville.

As for the St Johns River, water levels are generally peaking in action stage, with a few sites peaking into low end minor flood stage in the lower St Johns river during high tide (1.5-1.8 ft above mean higher high water) some of which is due to recent heavy rainfall. Expect these levels will be maintained through the week and into this weekend as waters are trapped from the onshore east to northeasterly flow persisting. Higher astronomical tides arrive by early next week may allow tide levels to rise further and will be monitored for any potential coastal flood advisories.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 71 81 72 / 50 30 60 30 SSI 83 75 83 75 / 60 50 50 40 JAX 83 74 84 75 / 80 70 70 40 SGJ 84 75 85 76 / 90 70 70 30 GNV 84 73 86 73 / 90 40 70 20 OCF 88 75 89 75 / 90 30 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ024-033-038-124-125- 133-138-225-325-425.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470-472.