Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montegut, LA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:33PM Friday January 22, 2021 10:46 AM CST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:42PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 338 Am Cst Fri Jan 22 2021
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Patchy fog. Chance of showers.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Patchy fog until early morning. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 338 Am Cst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis..A cold front will move into the coastal waters and stall today then move back to the north as a warm front Sunday. Another cold front could move into the northern gulf by the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montegut, LA
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location: 29.29, -90.54     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 221622 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

. MORNING UPDATE .

Performed a quick gridded update to reflect radar/obs trends. Still monitoring light stratiform rain showers for a large majority of the area. Previous forecast update mentioned lack of supportive thermodynamics for thunder - and will keep this trend going as 12Z KLIX RAOB/model soundings indicate barely any elevated instability north of the front and just about no surface based instability south of the front. CAM's are in good agreement over the idea that these showers will dissipate/push east later this afternoon, but cant rule out some areas of drizzle and patchy fog later tonight. Will keep the trend going from yesterday increasing PoP's along the SE LA coastline and adjacent marine zones tonight and early tomorrow with just enough lingering lift from frontal convergence to keep some showers going. Will dive deeper beyond this period with the afternoon package. KLG

UPDATE. /issued 725 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/

Have completely removed mention of thunder from the forecast for today. This is based on the 12z LIX sounding and the fact that we've seen no lightning strikes the entire midnight shift. Frontal boundary, such as it is, is now near or south of a line from Pascagoula to New Orleans to Morgan City. We've actually been losing the very low cloud cover behind the front, but feel this is temporary, so haven't made major changes to the TAF forecast beyond the first 3 hours or so. Have not adjusted high temperatures as they are only 5 degrees or so above current readings, but there's some potential that there's no temperature rebound at all today. Public products and grids have already been updated. 35

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 331 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/

SYNOPSIS.

Frontal boundary, based on wind direction and a minor drop in temperatures, appears to be near a Meridian to Bogalusa to Gonzales line at 3 AM CST. Weak upper ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, a shortwave getting sheared out over north Texas, and the next in a parade of shortwaves just about to enter northwest California.

Locally, a nearly solid shield of rain lags the frontal boundary by about 30 miles to the northwest. Haven't seen any indications of lightning strikes since the beginning of the shift, but there might be just enough instability in the 700-500 mb layer that a lightning strike or two can't be absolutely ruled out. Temperatures generally ranging from the upper 50s extreme northwest to mid 60s south of the front.

SHORT TERM.

As Texas shortwave continues to shear out as it moves eastward, the frontal boundary is expected to eventually push offshore this afternoon before becoming stationary over our outer coastal waters. Rain shield will shift southward as well. Expect just about everyone to see rain today. As mentioned in the synopsis, mid-level lapse rates are just steep enough where there's a non- zero chance of thunder across portions of the area. Temperature probably won't move much from where they are at sunrise.

With shortwave to the east and frontal boundary over the Gulf tonight, rain threat will diminish, and any isolated showers should primarily be south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Airmass never really dries out behind the shortwave, remaining nearly saturated below 850 mb on Saturday and Saturday night. Weak lift could provide the push for some weak rain showers. Can't see high temperatures Saturday being any warmer than today, and could even be a couple degrees cooler.

On Sunday, boundary layer flow turns onshore as the next shortwave begins to pull out of the Rockies. This will eventually lift the frontal boundary to the north. Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated showers again. If we are going to see any sunshine this weekend, it'll be Sunday. If we get some breaks in the clouds, the ECMWF temperature solution will probably work out better, but blends are closer to the GFS numbers, and we'll go with those for now, similar to our neighbors. 35

LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday).

Shortwave exiting the Rockies Sunday into Monday will weaken as it moves northeast toward the Great Lakes, climbing over the Gulf of Mexico ridge. Best instability and dynamics should be well to our north, but still enough for some scattered showers, and perhaps a couple storms across the area Monday afternoon and evening.

Monday has the potential to be the warmest day of the week (and the month), with GFS/ECMWF guidance indicating highs just short of record levels. Blends are somewhat lower, but with some uncertainty on frontal timing/precipitation, and the fact that nearshore water temperatures are only near 60 degrees, will side with the blend. If winds had a bit more of a westerly component, say 240 degrees instead of 210, would trend toward the higher numbers.

Upper ridge will briefly build over the eastern third of the country by Tuesday evening Meanwhile. a trough over the Four Corners area will kick out and move east into the south central plains by Wednesday afternoon. This will interact with a frontal boundary on Wednesday night and into Thursday bringing the second significant system of the week with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. This will bring a Pacific airmass type cold front behind it with temperatures slightly cooler on Thursday. Ridge will build in by late week with dry and seasonable conditions. 97/35

AVIATION (valid until 18z Saturday).

Ceilings bouncing between VFR and IFR should trend toward the lower conditions as frontal boundary continues to sag southward. Rain will occasionally drop visibilities below 2SM. Will not carry TSRA in TAFs, but threat is non-zero. As rain threat diminishes later in the day, visibilities will improve, but IFR (or lower) ceilings are likely to continue through at least 12z Saturday and perhaps through 18z. 35

MARINE.

Likely to be several periods over the next couple of days where winds exceed 15 knots over the open waters, but any Small Craft Advisory level conditions probably wouldn't occur until Monday into Monday night, ahead of the next system. Some potential for advective sea fog until frontal passage later today, and perhaps again Sunday night. 35

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 64 48 61 51 / 100 10 10 10 BTR 66 54 63 55 / 80 10 10 10 ASD 66 52 63 52 / 100 20 10 10 MSY 65 54 61 55 / 80 40 20 10 GPT 64 50 62 52 / 100 20 20 10 PQL 64 49 63 52 / 90 20 20 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 31 mi53 min 1.9 G 5.1 61°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 35 mi53 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 59°F1016 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 39 mi48 min W 6 G 9.9 67°F 2 ft1016.1 hPa62°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 44 mi53 min E 7 G 9.9 75°F 48°F1015.6 hPa
EINL1 45 mi53 min NE 11 G 12 59°F 47°F1015.3 hPa59°F
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 45 mi53 min ENE 5.1 G 8 62°F 48°F1015.9 hPa
CARL1 49 mi53 min 45°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA18 mi72 minNE 45.00 miLight Drizzle0°F0°F%1015.9 hPa
Houma-Terrebonne Airport, LA20 mi60 minN 02.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F63°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGAO

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE7NE8E5NE6E5E3E4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6S4S6S5S5S6S8S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana
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Cocodrie
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:42 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.20.20.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9111.11.11.110.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Pelican Islands
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:32 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:38 AM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:12 PM CST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.80.80.70.60.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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