Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montegut, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 1:40 AM CDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 943 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 943 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the southern plains. A weak front will move toward the gulf coast and the coastal waters on Tuesday. The front should then stall along or just inland from the coast for the remainder of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montegut, LA
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location: 29.29, -90.54     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 270443 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1143 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

AVIATION (06z TAF package).

Primarily a VFR forecast package. Seeing a few ceilings around FL060 at KMCB and KBTR associated with remnants of earlier TSRA in those areas. Cannot rule out some MVFR conditions at KMCB around sunrise, but these should improve by 15z. Airmass is somewhat drier than the last few days, as the LIX 00z sounding had a precipitable water value near 1.8 inches vs the 2+ we've been seeing.

Most guidance now pointing at little or no convection for much of Tuesday afternoon. If there's going to be a favored terminal, it's probably KBTR and/or KMCB and may not develop much before 20z or so, dissipating shortly after sunset. For now, will only carry VCTS at KBTR, and mid shift can re-assess for 12z package. 35

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 416 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

SHORT TERM . Well what can we say welcome to Summer. As expected scattered storms have mainly developed west of a line from Houma to Columbia. These storms and some outflow boundaries helped cool a few sites off but this was temporary for most locations as much of the area saw heat index values jump back up to around 105- 108.

The next few days will be almost a carbon copy of today. Very humid air, warm temperatures, and light winds will continue to lead to oppressive conditions with morning lows in the mid 70s to near 80 and then afternoon heat index values over much of the area ranging from 105-110. The combination of warm morning lows and hot conditions in the afternoon will not allow the body to cool outside. Combine that with the prolonged duration of these conditions and heat illness concerns will increase over the next few days. The main hope for cooling will be any afternoon thunderstorm development but that does appear to be a little more difficult the next few days as the ridge to our northwest noses down the southeast and a weak mid level low pushes west out of the western Gulf into southern TX and Mexico. In addition that area of deeper moisture analyzed by GOES16 will slide east and much drier air (relatively) with PWs around 1.5-1.7 will slide over the area the next few days. This will lead to a little less coverage of storms and that can be seen already with very little convection over coastal MS and much of the Southshore today. Now yes I did say drier air is moving in but that does not mean "DRY" air. Low level moisture will still be high with dewpoints still in the 70s so do not anticipate a relief in the oppressive conditions and with that we will extend the heat advisory into tomorrow. One adjustment was to include Hancock county in this as the environment around the Pearl River is quite oppressive with the added moisture but we did leave Harrison and Jackson counties out for now as the seabreeze has provided a little relief for the coast but thinking this likely is a bad decision as 5-10 miles north of the coast they will probably not see the seabreeze and heat index values will be borderline. Heat advisory will probably be needed for Wednesday as well but holding off right now to make sure the ridge doesn't get suppressed to the west some allowing us to be on the southeast periphery along with moisture rebounding and storms returning. /CAB/

LONG TERM . The extended portion of the forecast suggest Summer will be here to stay and we could really feel the heat finally as we move into August. Models are in agreement for the most part and will stick with the NBM overall. Only adjustments in the extended portion of the forecast from the NBM was morning lows in a few locations where the deterministic value is well below the mean values Fri-Sun.

Thu and Fri will see the ridge to our northwest continue to try to build southeast however we will likely see a weak disturbance ride around the ridge and come across the northern Gulf. Moisture will increase with PW back near 2". H925 temps would suggest mid 90s widespread for afternoon highs but with the possibility of storms it may help keep a few sites from reaching those values. So additional heat advisories could be needed for some areas those days.

Heading into the weekend could be the hottest period we have seen yet. By Saturday the ridge looks like it will fully build into the area. Yes unlike the other ridges that have tried to build in those came from the east and out of the Atlantic. Those were warm and quite moisture loaded but this ridge will be coming from the northwest and will be hot. Luckily it doesn't appear that the bulk of the heat will make it here with h925 temps still around 24-26C. That would still promote highs in the mid 90s but if we see only scattered showers and thunderstorms this week and some places actually make it through the week dry then we could see highs in the upper 90s in a few locations as we add those 1-2 degrees of superadiabatic skin layer temps. Looks like heat index values will probably easily get in the 100s and a few could be around 110 degrees. /CAB/

MARINE . Benign conditions on the water expected with light winds and low seas anticipated. Winds near the coast will be highly dictated by daily temp fluctuations and as typical in these Summer patterns winds south of the MS coast and east of the MS River delta will likely see a nocturnal jet with winds around 5-7 kts stronger than the rest of the marine zones. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 75 93 75 92 / 30 60 20 70 BTR 76 94 75 94 / 20 50 10 60 ASD 77 95 77 94 / 10 30 10 60 MSY 82 97 81 95 / 10 20 10 60 GPT 77 92 77 92 / 10 30 20 50 PQL 76 93 76 93 / 10 30 20 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>050-056>061-063>065-071-072-075>078.

GM . None. MS . Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 080.

GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 31 mi53 min 5.1 G 6 85°F 89°F1015.4 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 35 mi53 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 80°F 90°F1015.5 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 39 mi63 min SE 6 G 8 84°F 1016.1 hPa72°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 44 mi53 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 83°F 85°F1015.5 hPa
EINL1 45 mi53 min SE 8 G 9.9 86°F 85°F1015.2 hPa78°F
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 45 mi53 min S 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 86°F1015.8 hPa
CARL1 49 mi53 min 86°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA18 mi46 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F73°F91%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGAO

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNE3SE3SE5SE5SE6SE4S4CalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSW7S12N12CalmN3NE4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3W4NW3NW3NW5NW7NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana
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Cocodrie
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:07 AM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:29 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0000.10.20.30.40.60.70.70.80.90.90.9110.90.90.80.70.60.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Pelican Islands
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:58 AM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:38 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.811.11.21.31.31.21.21.10.90.80.70.60.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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