Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaplan, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A mix of low clouds with southerly winds bringing Gulf moisture under the atmospheric cap and high level clouds that is mainly left over convective blow off from storms that formed over Texas.
Rather muggy conditions also occurring with air temperatures and dew points in the mid 70s.

Expect upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf to hold enough over the forecast area through the weekend to keep any convection that may form over north central Texas later today to the north, with similar scenario on Sunday.

Southerly breezes will persist and allow low level Gulf moisture to move into the forecast area making for rather humid conditions for May. With air temperatures above climo norms, the max apparent temperature each day will be near or above 100F degrees.
With that, the NWS Heat Risk from WPC will stay in the Moderate to some spots of Major each day also. These categories are a Level 2 (Moderate) to Level 3 (Major) on a scale up to 4.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Still some consistency in the global guidance to bring a cold front across the forecast area during the overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Decent moisture building up ahead of the front with PWAT values in the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range and mean layer relative humidity in the 100H-50H level between 60 and 70 percent. However, progs show weak low level convergence and frontal forcing, with best upper level dynamics staying off to the north. Therefore, will only mention a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers or thunderstorms as the front moves through.

Some differences in how much drier air and strong the cooler air advection will be behind the front. About a 8F to 10F degrees spread between the GFS and ECMWF for Thursday and Friday, with the GFS cooler and drier, which is also the spread in the NBM ensemble whisker plots. Will go with operational National Blend of Models temperatures for consistency purposes, although it should be noted that these values are at the 25th percentile of the ensemble whisker plots.

Rua

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Southerly winds bringing in Gulf moisture helping to develop scattered to broken cloud cover under the atmospheric cap with ceilings at MVFR levels. Winds will increase after 17/15z with ceilings lifting to VFR levels for the remainder of the day.
Looks like another repeat this evening with MVFR ceilings returning shortly after 18/00z with the potential for IFR ceilings around 18/06z.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Southerly winds are a little lower this morning over the coastal waters this early morning with modest breezes occurring due to a decreasing pressure gradient as a surface low moves away from the region and toward the Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to persist.

An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers out of the forecast through the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters early Wednesday morning that will bring the next chance for showers or thunderstorms, along with a moderate northerly flow behind it.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 92 72 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 87 75 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 89 75 88 75 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 89 75 88 76 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.