Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Patterson, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:27 PM CDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 2:48AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 306 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 1 am cdt Friday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 306 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure will move east tonight resulting in onshore flow. Wind speeds will still be elevated with readings between 15 and 20 knots. A small craft exercise caution is headlined in the coastal forecast tonight and will likely need to have a small craft advisory issued for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase early on Friday as a warm frontal system move north across the coastal waters. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will continue into Friday night until the cold front moves across the coastal waters on Saturday. Modest offshore flow will develop behind the front and continue for the remainder of the weekend. Increased onshore flow can be expected Monday and Tuesday as low pressure develops over the central plains.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patterson, LA
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location: 29.37, -91.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 222335 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 635 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

DISCUSSION. 00Z 23APRIL21 TAFs

AVIATION. Current VFR conditions to completely deteriorate during this TAF cycle due to a disturbance expected to bring severe weather to the region. Clear skies seen this afternoon quickly filling in this evening and this will spread further east over the Acadiana terminals. Southeasterly winds to strengthen ahead of the disturbance and VCSH will be expected starting early tomorrow. VCTS to follow shortly after with the stronger storms expected in the afternoon. These storms will continue well past the next TAF cycle.

Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 228 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/

SHORT TERM [From Today through early Sunday] .

Pleasant conditions around the region today with clouds largely holding off, though some stratocu formation noted in SE TX this afternoon. Additionally, observations showing some evidence of the air mass moistening, as dew points look to be around 10 degrees or so higher than this time yesterday. Expect this trend to continue as surface high pressure slides further east, and deeper moisture overspreads the area as the next shortwave approaches.

Shortwave currently sliding eastward through the SW CONUS will result in surface cyclogenesis near the TX Panhandle on Friday, and in turn a warm frontal boundary lifts northward out of the Gulf through the day. Initially, could see some scattered showers Friday morning, with activity becoming more widespread from late afternoon onward into the evening and overnight hours.

Kinematic and thermodynamic environment will be at least somewhat conducive for severe weather with this system. Initially, convection firing along/north of the warm front early on would likely be elevated in nature, and with steep mid level lapse rates, large hail would be possible in stronger convection. Later in the day with the warm front continuing northward, convection will have a better potential to become surface rooted, and as such all hazards (wind/hail/tornado) would become possible. That said, best jet dynamics and overall forcing look to remain a bit further north in portions of north-central LA. This idea seems to be somewhat supported by the 12z HREF suite of CAMs with relative maxima of UH swaths nearer to the ArkLaTex region. Still, a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather would continue into the early overnight hours given a decent low level jet and modestly unstable/ sheared environment before activity begins to slowly taper off after midnight.

In addition to severe weather, a Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall is also noted over the region, as PWATS increasing to above the 90th percentile climatologically will allow convection to produce rain efficiently. In general looking at storm total QPF of around 1 to 4 inches north of the I-10 corridor, with locally higher amounts possible in any repeat/training cells.

Weak cold front/surface trough slides through on Saturday, and with no appreciable CAA, temperatures actually look to be quite mild with highs in the low to mid 80s. With a lack of good forcing, expecting dry conditions with the FROPA. Once northerly winds do develop, slightly drier air works in overnight with lows Sunday morning near seasonal normals. 50

LONG TERM (Sunday Through Thursday) . The cold front will continue to push deeper in the Gulf Of Mexico on Sunday with high pressure continuing to build in over the region.

Surface high pressure will shift east Monday allowing for the return of southerly flow. Temperatures will begin to moderate through mid week with true gulf moisture rapidly increasing on Tuesday.

The next upper level system will deepen across the plains into central Texas increasing rain chances beginning late Tuesday across the northwest part of the area and then spreading across the rest of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. There could be some potential again for heavy rainfall or severe weather as this system moves across the area. Any remaining rains will come to an end across south central and extreme east central Louisiana early Thursday morning. High pressure will build in on increased northerly flow for the rest of Thursday.

MARINE . Surface high pressure over the southeast United States will allow winds to become more southerly tonight. Wind speeds will still be elevated with readings between 15 and 20 knots. Therefore, will keep small craft exercise caution headlined in the coastal forecast tonight and will likely need to have a small craft advisory by Friday.

Rain chances will increase early on Friday as a warm frontal system move north across the coastal waters. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday into Friday night until a cold front moves across the coastal waters on Saturday. Modest offshore flow will develop behind the front and continue for the remainder of the weekend. Increased onshore flow can be expected Monday and Tuesday as low pressure across the central plains and high pressure across the eastern United States combine to elevate the winds across the northwest gulf waters. 06

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 55 74 64 83 / 20 80 100 10 LCH 61 76 69 83 / 30 90 90 10 LFT 58 76 67 82 / 10 80 90 20 BPT 64 77 67 84 / 30 90 80 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450- 452-455-470-472-475.



AVIATION . 87


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EINL1 0 mi57 min ENE 18 G 21 65°F 66°F1018.4 hPa56°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 6 mi57 min E 9.9 G 15 63°F 67°F1018.7 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 22 mi57 min E 6 G 8 63°F 66°F1019.1 hPa
KSCF 31 mi77 min E 24 66°F 59°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA24 mi31 minESE 610.00 miFair61°F51°F70%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP92

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Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
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Thu -- 03:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM CDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:26 PM CDT     1.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.20.80.50.40.30.40.50.711.21.51.81.9221.81.61.51.51.51.61.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:10 AM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:57 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM CDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:50 PM CDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.110.70.50.30.20.30.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.41.31.21.21.21.21.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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