Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Patterson, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:05PM Friday December 6, 2019 12:08 PM CST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 1:30AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 1104 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of rain showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1104 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front will move through the gulf waters tonight. Weak to moderate offshore flow develop. Winds will diminish over the area on Saturday as high pressure ridge moves through the area. Onshore flow will develop Sunday night and strengthen on Monday ahead of approaching front. The front will move through the waters on Tuesday. Moderate to strong offshore flow is expected behind this front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patterson, LA
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location: 29.37, -91.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 061732 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1132 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

DISCUSSION. For the 12/06/2019 18Z TAF Issuance

AVIATION. Surface observations showing this morning's fog has finally lifted, with only some minor visibility reductions noted at AEX that are expected to quickly diminish. Surface observations show dry cold frontal passage ongoing with winds shifting westerly to northwesterly through the day, becoming gusty at times. An area of CIGS between VFR/MVFR working their way through ARA/LFT, but expect these to improve to VFR by early afternoon, with BPT/LCH remaining VFR. A more persistent cloud deck is noted advecting southward towards AEX. Opted to keep BKN MVFR CIGS through the afternoon, though periods of SCT VFR will be likely. By later this evening and into the overnight hours, CIGS again begin lowering near the VFR/MVFR threshold. Guidance once again hinting at low CIGS and fog developing in the morning hours. Better confidence at potential VIS reductions at LCH/ARA/LFT, but still included TEMPO reductions at BPT/AEX as well. With the forecast keeping winds around the 5-8 kt range, didn't bring visibility too low with this TAF package, opting to stick with BR.

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PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 314 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/

DISCUSSION . Short term . Today through Saturday

Main forecast issue will be POPs over the next 6-12 hours.

Mid and high level clouds continue over the area. Temperatures were mainly in the 50s . except for lower 60s across parts of southeast Texas. Water vapor is showing nicely an upper disturbance moving into the Arklatx area. Widely scattered showers were observed over northern Louisiana and a few showers move through central Louisiana before sunrise. For now, will maintain low POPs over Acadiana this morning. With rain chances ending this morning, prefrontal trough will move through the area. Low level westerly wind component and subsidence will allow for a much warmer afternoon. Temperatures should reach well into the 70s . and could climb into the 80s especially over eastern areas. Cooler air will surge over the area tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday. Dry weather is forecasted but weak upper disturbances will provide mid to upper high level cloudiness.

Long Term . Saturday night through Friday Will maintain dry weather Sunday night as surface ridge slowly moves into the southeast U.S. Upper trough will slowly traverse through the central U.S. early next week. Upper disturbances rotating around this trough and approaching frontal boundary will bring a chance for showers beginning as early as Monday. But it appears best chance will be on Monday night and Tuesday with FROPA. Post frontal rain is expected as 850mb frontal boundary will lag behind surface front.

POPs will be a challenge for Wednesday through Friday. Have opted to follow a model blend forecast with low POPs even some individual models are trending much drier for Wednesday and Thursday. Given a fast upper zonal flow, believe a few showers would be possible with passing short waves.

Temperatures will be near or above normal early next week but will forecast them below normal for mid and late week.

MARINE . At this time, no significant marine hazards are forecasted with cold front over the waters tonight. SCEC conditions may develop offshore tonight but if they occur, will likely last only through early Saturday.

Surface ridge will slowly work through the area this weekend with weak onshore flow developing. May see some modest strengthening of onshore flow on Monday before FROPA, but believe moderate to strong northerly flow will develop after FROPA on Tuesday. Increased marine winds from model blend forecasts as thermal gradient could bring wind gusts offshore to gale force.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 76 48 63 44 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 77 52 66 49 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 79 53 66 49 / 20 0 0 0 BPT 76 52 66 50 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . None.

AVIATION . 50


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EINL1 0 mi51 min WSW 7 G 8
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 6 mi51 min SSW 5.1 G 8
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 22 mi51 min SW 11 G 17
KSCF 31 mi34 min SW 5.1 73°F 70°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Point, LA15 mi70 minno data mi71°F66°F87%1018.5 hPa
Patterson Memorial, LA24 mi73 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F66°F71%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP92

Wind History from P92 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7SE7SE5E4E4E5E6E5E6E6SE6SE5SE4SE6SE5SE5SE4SE4435--SW5
1 day agoW53W4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE6SE9
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2 days ago------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW43W5

Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:04 AM CST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:19 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:49 PM CST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM CST     1.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.51.210.80.70.80.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.111111.11.21.41.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:29 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 AM CST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:38 PM CST     1.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:13 PM CST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.210.80.70.60.60.60.70.80.90.9110.90.80.70.70.80.80.911.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.