Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Welaka, FL

UPDATE
No significant changes to the forecast. Winds will continue to calm after sunset this evening as relative humidity increase, hopefully bringing some relief to the ongoing wildfires. Areas to the south and southwest of larger wildfires may see smoke nearby. Tuesday, another Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of inland northeast Florida due to low minRH and breezy onshore winds forecast.

Tonight, winds will ease up as the pressure gradients are alleviated by high pressure builds from the spine of the Appalachians eastward to the Mid Atlantic coast. As winds settle, temperatures will become much cooler with inland temps falling to the mid/upper 40s while mid/upper 50s are forecasted for the immediate coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- A Fire Weather Warning is in place for inland NE FL on Tuesday - Critically low minimum humidity values for inland locations into midweek

High pressure conditions will continue to dominate the weather pattern through Wednesday with fair weather, critically dry humidity values over inland areas, and diminishing winds as the center of high pressure rotation passes over the forecast area from out of the west. Diurnal sea breeze winds will bring in slightly less dry conditions for coastal counties. High temperatures through midweek will rise into the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for areas nearer to the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 50s over inland areas and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for areas near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

-Dry conditions persist through work week -Isolated T'storms possible Saturday and Sunday -Warming Trend this Period

Potential for showers and possible thunderstorms will increase over the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east and a slightly more moist flow moves across the region from out of the west raising relative humidity levels above critical levels by Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will experience a heating trend through the end of the week and into the weekend, with above average max temps reaching into the lower 90s by Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty winds will continue to calm this evening and become more variable overnight. After sunrise winds will pick up out of the northeast, then from the east by mid- afternoon and gusting near 20 knots.

MARINE

Gusty northeasterly winds across the waters, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions, will begin to ease tonight with seas gradually lowering thereafter. Easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday will become southeasterly Thursday into Friday with southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching and stalling near the local waters this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A moderate to high risk is anticipated for Tuesday with easterly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND - Much Of Inland Northeast Florida Through Midweek

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Thursday

Strong high pressure builds in from the northwest with breezy northeast winds near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph and critical MinRH values 15-20 percent will create dangerous wildfire conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of inland Southeast GA in Northeast FL locations west of the St. Johns River. Additionally the breezy surface and transport winds will create high dispersions Today. Dry and breezy conditions will again be present across inland NE FL on Tuesday, with a Red Flag Warning set for inland NE FL on Tuesday. A Fire Weather Warning has been set on Tuesday for portions of inland NE FL.

The high pressure over the area Tuesday and Wednesday will gradually move east of the area Thursday into Friday. This will lead to the breezy east to northeast winds to diminish on Wednesday with daily Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland into Friday. Dry conditions will persist and critical MinRH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of northeast FL each day this week. Areas to widespread high daytime dispersions are expected daily into at least Thursday due to high mixing heights and moderate transport wind speeds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: There will be potential for Localized "superfog" near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 47 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 58 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 50 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 48 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 50 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-237- 240-322-340-422-425-522.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ023-024- 030-031-035-132-136-137-140-225-232-236-237-240-322-340- 422-425-522.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.
GA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452- 454-470-472.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ474.