Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Welaka, FL

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Hot and dry weather pattern in store as High pressure ridge axis remains across the Central/Southern FL peninsula and West to Southwest steering flow keeps the East Coast sea breeze pinned near the Atlantic Coast. This will allow for Max temps to reach near record levels into the lower/middle 90s both days, along with some upper 90s possible along the I-95 and US-17 corridors Friday afternoon just to the west of the pinned East Coast sea breeze front, along with peak heat index readings around 100F. PWATs will remain in the 1 inch to 1.25 inch range and while a rogue isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the strong surface heating, the lack of surface boundaries will keep overall rainfall chances around 10 percent or less. Overnight lows will generally fall into the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Fog chances will remain fairly low with just some patchy fog possible across inland areas just before sunrise both days, mainly in the 5am to 8am time frame and mostly across inland NE FL along the I-75 corridors, including the Suwannee Valley near Live Oak/Lake City.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions will continue as the high pressure ridge remains intact across the FL peninsula with a hotter than normal westerly steering flow keeping Max temps at near record levels well into the 90s. Some of the longer range models push a weak frontal boundary into the SE US states this weekend that stalls just north of the local area across GA/Carolinas, but a few leak enough moisture into SE GA for the potential of isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms from Sunday into early next week, with potential for rainfall chances of 20-30% across SE GA, while rainfall chances remain 20% or less across NE FL in this weather pattern. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s/near 70F over inland areas and lower to middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this evening, with winds around 5-10 knots at the TAF sites. Tonight, MVFR fog may impact GNV and VQQ before sunrise, with a higher chance being at VQQ.

MARINE
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds will generally be southwesterly during the morning and overnight hours, shifting to southerly each afternoon and evening.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the weekend, with potential for exercise caution winds for the offshore waters Thursday and Saturday evenings. No thunder is forecast through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through at least Thursday for the area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Hot temps and W-SW flow will promote pockets of high dispersions above 75 units, mainly across SE GA and coastal NE FL (along the I-95/US-17 corridors) where the W-SW flow will drop Min RH levels around 35 percent both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Wind gusts from the W-SW will peak in the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon hours as some wind does mix down to the surface during the strong surface heating, which could present some issues if any wildfires did develop. Overall, fuels are in a better situation due to the recent rainfall, but will dry out quickly as the hotter and drier weather pattern takes hold this week into the weekend.

CLIMATE
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

THU 5/15
JAX 97/1967
CRG 91/1991
GNV 97/1985
AMG 94/1990

FRI 5/16
JAX 96/1995
CRG 94/1994
GNV 98/1896
AMG 95/1990

SAT 5/17
JAX 96/1995
CRG 93/2001
GNV 96/1915
AMG 94/2001

SUN 5/18
JAX 96/1899
CRG 93/2001
GNV 97/1930
AMG 95/2001

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 67 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 67 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.