Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:17PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 12:20AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202009252100;;327712 Fzus52 Kjax 250713 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 313 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-252100- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 313 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 313 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis.. Wave heights will decrease today with southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots tonight. Winds and seas will continue to decrease this weekend and then increase again next week. A more active pattern for showers and Thunderstorms is setting up as a series of cold fronts roll across the coastal waters the next few days, with the strongest front arriving late Tuesday. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms are anticipated through Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 22, 2020 at 1200 utc... 56 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 65 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 90 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
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location: 29.4, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 251126 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 726 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

Light southerly winds this morning will become southeasterly at the east coast TAF sites in the mid to late afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Scattered showers/storms are expected in the mid to late afternoon hours to early evening, with storms near the TAF sites. Light winds are expected overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION [345 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

An axis of mid/upper level ridging over the western Atlantic extended south into the the Bahamas and supports Surface high pressure northeast of the region near Bermuda which is expected to slide further east into the Atlantic waters through tonight. Another feature to note is a mid to upper level trough over the Ohio Valley that will become more organized as it moves southeast into the southern appalachians late today. This feature and the remnants of Beta over the upper TN valley and southern Appalachians is bringing light southeasterly surface winds this morning that will veer more southerly by midday into the afternoon. This along with moist southwest low to mid level flow aloft will raise PWATs from current GOES derived values of 1.5-1.7 inches to near 2.0 inches. The strongest shortwave energy should pass north of the region, but some elevated wind shear could clip over SE GA later today from Waycross northward as the mid level trough moves east with a cold front sliding through the southeast states. Mid- level temperatures will cool during the course of today around -6/-7 degrees celsius that promote added instability aloft. Increased surface moisture will also allow CAPE levels to rise to around 1,500-2,000 J/kg and this plus the increasing 0-6km shear up to 35 knots over portions of SE GA will lend chances for strong wind gusts of 30-50 mph. Otherwise less shear over NE FL generally less than 25 knots will keep the potential for strong wind gusts much lower. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible with the higher moisture levels and slow storm motions could allow locally heavy rainfall to occur where successive storms move or train over the same locations.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 over inland NE FL, the mid to upper 80s over inland SE GA, and the mid 80s along the NE FL and SE GA coast.

Tonight, Some clouds will be slow to clear as the cold front slowly works east of the area with only gradual clearing towards dawn expected with patchy fog over SE GA where surface and low level winds will be weakest before the front passes. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s over inland locations with mid 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

Lower rain chances Sat as mid level ridge axis amplifies across the FL peninsula and a weak surface trough trailing from the remnant circulation of Beta lingers across the region. Westerly steering flow 10-15 kts and high moisture with PWAT near 1.8 inches will focus the highest rain chances generally east of Highway 301 in the afternoon and evening where sea breezes and outflows will merge across NE FL where a few t'storms will be possible. Precip will fade in coverage into the early Sat evening with dry conditions Sat night into Sun morning. SW steering flow develops over the local area into Sun afternoon with the approach the next frontal system taking shape across the central Gulf Coast region. Expect better coverage of showers & t'storms Sun afternoon into Sun evening with PWAT surging back above the 2 inch range and increased upper level dynamics with an approaching mid level trough. In the lower levels, active sea breezes across the FL peninsula under light SSW steering flow < 10 kts will support locally heavy rainfall along boundary mergers. Across SE GA, a weak surface trough under a passing mid level trough will also bring elevated rain chances Sun afternoon and continue elevated rain chances into Sun night as the surface trough axis lingers and PVA passes overhead. Severe weather parameters are not really 'phased' Sun afternoon into Sun evening with the better thermal instability/steeper lapse rates across NE FL but stronger 0-6 km bulk shear across the Suwannee River Valley & SE GA of 30-35 kts. There could be a few strong to briefly severe storms this period capable of some hail given cooler temps aloft and shear in the hail growth zone, but overall not a significant severe storm threat at this time and mainly just heavy rain potential. Convection will gradually fade in coverage and intensity into Sun evening, but there will continue a chance of precip overnight, especially across SE GA.

Temperatures will trend above normal this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows ranging in the 70s with a few upper 60s possible across the Altamaha River basin. Heat index values peak near 100 deg across NE FL before convection.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

Mon & Tue . Elevated rain chances continue with mean layer mid level trough across the region Mon a weak surface trough axis. Late Mon night into Tue, a anomalously strong long wave trough carving southward across the MS River Valley drives a strong surface cold front eastward with a squall line approaching the local area early Tue morning from the WSW, tracking across the local area through Tue afternoon with a strong to isolated severe storm potential given strong dynamical forcing, but given time of day of the passage of the line at this time diurnal instability will be more marginal. Rainfall will clear from W to E into Tue evening, trailed by a much drier and cooler airmass. Temperatures will trend near normal Mon under mostly cloudy skies, then temps will cool trailing the frontal passage Tue evening below climo values for lows Tue night in the upper 50s for SE GA to 60s for NE FL.

Wed & Thu . Pattern shift with drier, stable and cool conditions under deep layer WNW flow as surface high pressure builds across Gulf Coast states under a bread mean layer eastern CONUS trough. A low chance of coastal showers moving inland toward Putnam/Marion county late in the week as NNE flow develops near the Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend near to below normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

MARINE.

Wave heights will decrease today below 5 ft with southeast winds up to 15 knots into tonight. Winds and seas will continue to decrease this weekend and then increase again next week. A more active pattern for showers and thunderstorms is setting up as a series of cold fronts roll across the coastal waters the next few days, with the strongest front arriving late Tuesday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents at all area beaches into this evening, then risk should decrease over the weekend.

HYDROLOGY.

Elevated water levels will continue to gradually lower through the St. Johns River basin. Tidal gauge at Buffalo Bluff peaked in minor flood at 1.61 ft around midnight overnight and is trending down. Minor flooding around 1-1.5 ft MHHW will remain possible, mostly in Putnam and Flagler county through Friday with nuisance flooding of less than a foot possible further north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 87 71 87 70 88 / 70 40 10 10 40 SSI 84 73 85 74 84 / 40 20 20 10 30 JAX 91 74 89 73 88 / 40 30 20 10 30 SGJ 89 75 87 75 87 / 30 20 20 10 30 GNV 92 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 10 40 OCF 92 74 90 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Inland Flagler-Putnam.

GA . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn.

AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 19 mi65 min SSW 1 74°F 1016 hPa73°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 33 mi50 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 80°F1015.5 hPa75°F
41117 41 mi24 min 80°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi60 minN 07.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.2 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL15 mi57 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F75°F97%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXFL

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
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2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.10.10.10.30.50.60.70.80.70.50.40.20.100.10.20.40.60.80.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.50.50.40.30.20.1000.10.30.50.60.70.60.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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