Sunrise 7:00 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 4:25 PM   Moonset 4:22 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 200732 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Some scattered showers continue across the western CWA overnight with the more robust thunderstorms remaining well west of the Rio Grande. Mostly cloudy skies continue across the region with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The remainder of the overnight and the morning hours should be mostly rain free for most of the area.
However, will see some activity mainly over the northwestern CWA in closer proximity to the trough and in the Coastal Plains where low- level moisture is highest. Rainfall activity will pick up in coverage and intensity by the afternoon hours as the base of a weak upper trough axis approaches the area.

The two main areas from the morning will be initially favored this afternoon. In the southeast, the front will lift north a bit as a warm front and lead to some higher values of surface based instability there for some storms to be rooted in the boundary layer. There is a small chance for a strong to marginally severe storm with some hail and winds possible with a much smaller chance for an isolated tornado. In addition to the severe risk, there could be a localized flooding threat there as well, as the boundary layer storms potentially produce some decent rainfall amounts. The other area for possible storms will be in the northwestern CWA by the mid to late afternoon hours. This activity is then expected to push southeast through much of the CWA into the late afternoon and evening hours. Some weak elevated instability could support some low chance for some marginally severe hail or perhaps a gusty wind report. SPC has placed a marginal risk for severe storms for much of the CWA today. Think the higher risk for today into the evening will be threat for locally heavy rainfall. PMM rainfall from the HRRR show isolated totals up to 2-4 inches possible in the Coastal Plains and into the northeastern CWA where southerly flow should push into by the evening hours. Can't rule out the need for an isolated Flash Flood Warning late this afternoon and evening, but overall chances for widespread flash flooding is not high enough to warrant a watch at this time.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s in the north to the middle 80s in the southwest CWA Rain chances will linger through the early overnight hours before pushing east of the CWA The remainder of the short-term period will remain dry. Lows Saturday night will be on the cooler side, in the upper 40s to near 60. Sunday looks to be pleasant with partly to mostly cloudy skies, breezy northerly flow and highs topping out in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

After a cool start Monday morning, southerly lower flow returns leading to a warming and moistening trend through next week. Well below normal temperatures warm to above normal by mid week. There remains uncertainty on how fast POPs return. Light showers/patchy drizzle are possible mid to late week due to the level jet. However, chances are too low to mention, at this time. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late week due to impulses in the developing southwesterly flow aloft, though there is uncertainty on the track of these. For now, will maintain the slight chances for portions of the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. Later forecasts will refine the POPs for mid to late week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Scattered showers continue near DRT with little thunder activity.
Will just mention VCSH for a couple of more hours. MVFR/IFR conditions will be expected overnight with little to no improvement expected during the day tomorrow. Should see some possible scattered showers and maybe a storm during the early afternoon tomorrow before more widespread activity is expected in the late afternoon and evening hours. Will prevail tsra for the I35 sites to handle this.
May see some lingering showers after the line moves through and will keep from VCSH in for a few more hours. IFR conditions will continue tomorrow night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 72 53 65 50 / 80 90 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 51 65 47 / 70 90 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 53 66 50 / 70 90 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 51 62 47 / 90 80 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 60 72 58 / 80 40 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 51 63 46 / 90 90 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 79 54 71 50 / 70 70 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 52 66 48 / 70 90 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 55 65 49 / 70 90 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 54 67 51 / 70 90 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 80 56 68 52 / 70 90 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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