Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Fe, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Remnant mid level troffiness should be situated further south today with the shear axis generally situated along and east of the US59/I69 corridor. Though PW's should remain around 2" for almost all of the region today, those further north and west of the axis will see some H85 temps between 20-23C which should put up a fight in terms of shra/tstm development. Further south of this axis, atmos won't be quite as hostile for initiation...though it might be delayed til later in the afternoon compared to the earlier starts that we've seen in past days. So, today, overall precip coverage shouldn't be as much as we've seen lately...but temps will be a touch higher and combined with the RH's - so will the heat indices. We're looking at peaks between 106-109F and will be going with a short-fuse Heat Advisory for northern and western parts of the region.

Sunday, we should see a touch higher PW's move into the region from the east so would still anticipate another rough of scattered, diurnally driven showers and tstms across southern parts of the region.

Next week, mid-upper ridging to our west will track over Texas, set up shop in the SE states toward midweek, weaken and move back to the east during the second part of the work week. This should mostly set the stage for typical summertime weather - mostly dry and warm, with isolated to scattered coastal showers/storms each day. Just minor fluctuations in temps and POPs based on ridge positioning and PW's.
(Could see a bump in coastal POPs Thur if higher PW air pushes toward the Texas coast, though right now that may end up bypassing most of us to the south). 47

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Cloud decks will lower to around 1500-2000ft overnight, and could briefly fill in to produce MVFR CIGS early Saturday morning (potentially to IFR FLs). Isolated patchy fog will also be possible in spots during the early morning, mainly in fog prone locations like KCXO. CIGs /Fog should clear around or by the late morning hours. Showers are also expected to develop over the coast Saturday morning. Convection should slowly shift inland during the afternoon.
Greater influence from the ridge should reduce shower/storm coverage, though model guidance was too bear on convection for Friday. With this uncertainty, I've added mentions for TSRA but maintained PROB30 categories. Any convection that does develop should tapper off into Saturday evening, with winds becoming light once again.

03

MARINE
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Winds are in the 15-20kt range in the Gulf so will be flying the caution flags until around sunrise. Speeds should somewhat diminish through the day, more in the 10-15kt range and 2-4ft seas for the rest of the weekend. There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days...moreso from Freeport eastward. The best chance of a thunderstorms in the Gulf will be overnight and the early morning hours. For the bays, the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm will be during the afternoon. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 99 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 95 78 95 78 / 50 50 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 84 / 20 20 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-236.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.