Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Texas City, TX

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Latest visible satellite and radar show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and Gulf waters early this afternoon. These showers are developing roughly in a zone with strong moisture convergence at the surface and divergence at 300mb thanks to a weak upper jet. As we head into the afternoon and early evening hours, peak of diurnal heating will take place along with increasing low to mid-level instability under a zone of precipitable water around 2.0 - 2.2 inch. This will support scattered convection within the next few hours further inland. As of now , the best focus for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-10 corridor and areas east of I-45. Locally heavy rain will be the primary risk, resulting in isolated flooding. This risk is depicted well in the WPC's day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. The severe weather risk is low; however, some strong storms will be capable of producing strong winds, frequent lightning and small hail. Most of this activity are diurnally-driven; therefore, showers/storms are progged to end early this evening.

The eastern edge of the mid to upper level ridge centered across the southwestern CONUS will slightly expand into our region after Tuesday. Further to the east, there will be another weak ridge centered across the eastern Atlantic/eastern Gulf. This pattern will somehow increase subsidence (drier/sinking air) across the region throughout the week. However, a trough axis will lingers across the region; resulting in passing weak impulses of energy/shortwaves over the area. In other words, a less active pattern will prevail over the next several days, but there will be a daily risk of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms. Global models and some ensemble means show no consistency with the weather pattern beyond Thursday. Most solutions suggest the best rain/storm coverage Thursday, persisting into the weekend, particularly south of I-10. Forecast confidence remains low to moderate during this time-frame given high uncertainty. Therefore, will continue PoPs as NBM guidance suggests with around 20 to 40 percent each day.

Warm and humid days continue with high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s inland, around 80 along the coast.

JM

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A few sporadic MVFR CIGS may fill in briefly during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate throughout the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast early today, spreading inland during the afternoon then tapering off during the early evening. A few storms could become strong at times and may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Afterwards light southerly flow prevails overnight. Cloud decks near 700-2500 ft may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours of Tuesday. These cloud decks could briefly fill in to bring MVFR to IFR conditions, with CIGs more likely to form in areas near and around KCLL. Any CIGs should clear out again after sunrise.

03

MARINE
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the day, before gradually diminish by late this afternoon. Rain and storm chances are expected each day, with the greatest next chance this Thursday. Elevated winds and seas, along with a slight chance of waterspouts are possible with any strong thunderstorms. Overall, light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft are expected throughout the week. Seas may build a bit offshore (around 5 to 6 ft) Wednesday night into Thursday in response to an approaching coastal trough over the southwestern Gulf. Given persistent onshore flow along all Gulf-facing coast, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will persist through most of the week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 92 74 91 76 / 30 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 75 91 78 / 60 40 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 40 20 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.