Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flagler Beach, FL

UPDATE
Forecast remains on track this evening with no change to the Freeze warning tonight. A Hard freeze will bring lows in the mid 20s for inland NE FL and SE GA with a light freeze 30-32 degrees along the St Johns river and the NE FL and SE GA coast.

Cold weather advisory conditions will arrive after midnight as NW winds 5-10 mph (10-15 near rivers, lakes, and the beaches) combine with falling temperatures to create wind chills in the low to mid 20s and thus a cold weather advisory remains in effect for NE FL from 1AM to 9AM. Sunshine will allow temperatures and wind chills to quickly improve thereafter.

Monday will be sunny, but chilly with light NW winds and highs in the low 50s over SE GA and mid 50s over NE FL, about 10 degrees below normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
This afternoon...Widespread moderate rainfall across NE FL/SE GA will end quickly from west to east, with all precipitation well offshore by the 4-5pm time frame. There is still a chance for this rainfall to end as a period of wet snowfall mixed in for points to the North and West of Waycross, GA and will likely leave current Winter Weather Advisory in place until its end time of 2pm EST, but chances for any significant snowfall accumulations are low. The strong cold air advection will continue breezy/windy Northwest winds at 15-25G30-35 mph for the remainder of the afternoon, before decreasing after sunset. Temps generally in the mid/upper 30s across inland SE GA and 40s elsewhere will continue to slowly fall through the rest of the afternoon.

Tonight...Skies becoming clear as much colder and drier arctic air mass pushes into the region and Northwest winds 10-15 mph this evening will diminish to 5-10 mph by the overnight hours. Temps will continue to fall below freezing across inland areas during the evening hours and after midnight along the Atlantic Coastal areas making a long duration Freeze Event. Hard Freeze still on track for inland areas with lows in the middle 20s, with upper 20s along the I- 95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin, then a light Freeze all the way to the Atlantic beaches with lower 30s expected as W-NW flow pushes the cold to the Atlantic Coast. The lingering W-NW winds at 5- 10 mph is still expected to push Wind Chills into the 20-25F range and will keep current Cold Weather Advisory in place for NE FL, while wind chills across SE GA should remain just above criteria there. Along with the Freeze event, expect winds to diminish enough towards sunrise Monday morning for a widespread Frost event over all- areas. The concern for any black ice should remain on the low side as the drier airmass and Northwest winds should allow for roadways and bridges to dry off enough to prevent any significant threat from this scenario.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure centered over the Plains shifts east-southeastward and builds across the SE US for early week. Dry, cold airmass persist over the region maintaining below normal temperatures. Despite mostly sunny skies, daytime highs will only reach into the low 50s north to around 60 south. Freezing and frosty nights/mornings expected with lows dropping into mid 20s in inland SE GA to around 40s along the coast. Onshore flow develops Tuesday night with slightly "warmer" temperatures Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Monday night into Tuesday morning for inland SE GA and NE FL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday as a weak cold front moves south through the SE US. Isolated to scattered showers move across the area on Thursday ahead of the front. South- southwesterly flow ahead of the front will begin to moderate temperatures back to seasonable for mid-week. Warm south- southwesterly quickly re-develops in the wake of the front pushing temperatures above seasonable for the end of the week. A stronger cold front moves into the SE US for the weekend bringing the next round of rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
The back edge of clouds have cleared SSI and are nearing the duval county terminals and GNV, so broken to overcast MVFR ceilings of 1.5-2.0 kft will become few to scattered by 02Z at those sites, then at SGJ by 03Z with clear skies to follow after 03Z at all sites. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period with northwesterly winds 5-8 knots as high pressure builds form the west.

MARINE

Gusty Northwest flow is expected through tonight in the wake of arctic cold frontal passage with Small Craft Advisory conditions along with occasional gusts to gale force. Arctic high pressure building along the northern Gulf coast in the wake of this cold frontal passage will remain centered to the west of our our region through Tuesday, keeping breezy northwest to northerly winds and elevated seas in place. High pressure will then shift eastward towards the Carolina coast on Tuesday night, allowing winds to shift to northeasterly across our local waters. Coastal troughing will develop on Wednesday over our near shore waters, with this feature then lifting northward in advance of a weak frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states on Thursday. A few showers will be possible along and ahead of this approaching front from Wednesday night through early Friday morning.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Rest Of Today NE FL Moderate Rest Of Today

FIRE WEATHER
Area-wide showers and breezy northwesterly winds will occur today ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. Lower ceilings will keep dispersions fair to good today.
Dry weather following the frontal passage will be in place over the region by this evening with overnight and early morning freeze conditions expected for the next few days. MinRH values will drop into the 30s on Monday and into the 20s on Tuesday. Fair to good dispersions prevail through Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland freezes are expected the next couple of mornings. Light freezes and frost potentially may extend to coastal locations tonight and Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 24 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 31 53 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 26 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 31 56 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 27 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 26 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023-024-030- 031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233- 236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-140-220-225-232- 236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.