Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boothville, LA

FXUS64 KLIX 090455 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Temperatures continue to be near average as the northern Gulf Coast remains sandwiched between what seem like semipermanent ridges over the SW CONUS and Western Atlantic. The weakness between these two ridges has allowed for nearly continuous shortwave troughs to ride the periphery of the SW CONUS ridge and get stuck over the Mississippi River Valley for the past month or so, and there is no indication that this longwave pattern will be going away just yet. No complaints here honestly.

Our next weak shortwave trough is currently over the upper Mississippi River Valley and will work its way southeastward through the day today, slow down as it gets stuck in between the ridges on either side of it, and begin to lose its coherence. A key development in the trends with this trough appear to be that it is losing its coherence much quicker in latest guidance and does not appear to be providing as much atmosphere lift as what was advertised in forecasts from prior days. As such, while PoPs will be elevated compared to climatological norms, we have seen NBM guidance correct lower closer to 50-60% today. Although there is some uncertainty in overall coverage of storms, confidence is higher that the lake and sea breezes will be the focus for storm initiation along the I-10/12 corridor by just after noon. PWAT values have increased since the prior days as well with the 00Z LIX sounding observing a 1.89" PWAT value which lands around the 75th percentile for this time of year. Thus a few of the stronger storms today will have more moisture to work with and carry higher rainfall rates that could lead to street flooding especially in poor drainage and urban areas along the I-10/12 corridor.

By Thursday, the weak shortwave troughing will be situated just to the north of the CWA and with deep moisture across the area (PWAT values nearing 2"). This should lead to a more appreciable increase in convective coverage with storms becoming more numerous through the afternoon hours. While widespread heavy rain is not forecast, individual storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour that can cause quick accumulations and overwhelm street drainage systems. There is notable disagreement amongst guidance on where the greatest focus of storm coverage will be on Thursday with general agreement only development along the lake and seabreezes, as typical of summer afternoons. NBM guidance continues to want to focus highest PoPs along the Louisiana Coast, but CAM and SREF guidance is emphasizing higher PoPs closer to the weak shortwave trough axis over ArkLaMiss. Therefore, PoPs have been nudged upward in a blend with this guidance over southwest Mississippi, Florida Parishes, and coastal Mississippi. Regardless, despite the higher PoPs, it's probable that Thursday will not be a complete washout for most locations.
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