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GMZ538 Expires:202310040315;;685694 Fzus54 Klix 031423 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 923 am cdt Tue oct 3 2023
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-040315- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 923 am cdt Tue oct 3 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.

GMZ500 923 Am Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
gusty easterly winds in excess of 20 to 25 knots will continue today, which will maintain hazardous seas for small craft of 4 to 7 feet. Winds will gradually decrease ahead of a pattern change and approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Saturday. An increase in winds to 20 to 25 knots is expected behind the front then easing into the first of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 031723 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Surface obs show a fairly sharp gradient of low level dry/moist air right along the LA coastline. PW's are too low to support convective development over most of the CWA, but there are a few showers on radar in coastal waters and nearby parishes where dewpoints are still in the 70s. Thus, have updated POPs to reflect low end potential for showers and maybe a storm or 2 in the regions mentioned above.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

High pressure remains dominate over the area and this will remain the case through at least Wed. A few showers could tickle the coast from time to time with moisture loading ahead of a strong cold front moving toward the area Wed. As expected, the GFS has backed off of bringing these showers into the area from the gulf for Wed. There will be more showers and maybe a storm or two over the coastal waters though. Will reissue the coastal flood advisory for tonight, tide levels will be about the same as they were this morning and we will begin to fall from this spring tide cycle after Wed night bringing these levels lower after that.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Global models continue to show bridging of the cold front as it moves toward the area. This would cause the line of sh/ts along the front to begin decaying before it gets here. Even though there could be several areas of showers existing along and ahead of the front, no large rain amounts are expected that could be drought busting. Cloud cover should be the most prevalent thing noticed.
The high that is over the area currently will get forced east and NE, slowly giving way to the new high moving in, but the old high will take its time in moving which should keep most of the moisture loading showers near the coast Thursday while the best forcing will be with the front as it moves through which will give the best chance(albeit low chance) of rain Friday. The driest model this time is the GFS as compared with the Euro and so the flip flopping continues. But this same relatively dry scenario is kept each run, its just showing up in a different model each 24hrs. The more synoptic feature that all models agree on is the cold front actually moving through the area, although timing is different with each. But they do show two boundaries. The first moving in Thu night and slowing over the area which will barely be noticeable with exception to a few showers, cloud cover and a light northerly brz. Then the main "real" cold front moves through Fri night or Sat morning cleaning the area and bringing the coolest air so far this season. Yeeeeeeeesssssss, it will be a nice change and some of the northern portion of the area c could get into the upper 40s for lows by Sat night. But better yet, the highs Sat may struggle to get out of the 70s inland, the coast may still see some low 80s though.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

No significant impacts expected at terminals through this forecast period. A CU field has developed across portions of the area with ceilings just nudging into MVFR category. Those will probably rise into VFR before eventually dissipated later today. Easterly winds persist with most terminals 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. TAF sites closer to water will experience about 5kts stronger than that during the day. Evening and nighttime hours return to light and variable with mostly VFR prevailing. Some guidance suggest low chance for light fog Tuesday morning at KMCB and KBTR. Not confident enough to add that to TAFs just yet.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

We will continue the small craft advisory as winds continue to move in and out of criteria around 20kt. These winds may be present in the western most zones again tonight but after that all marine areas should fall to caution statements or no headlines. Winds should be weakest Thu and Fri but a strong cold front is advertised to move through the northern gulf causing moderate northerly winds around 25kt possibly as early as Friday night or Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 67 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 64 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 72 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 62 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Breton Islands
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Tue -- 01:04 AM CDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:38 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Breton Islands, Louisiana, Tide feet

Jack Bay
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Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:23 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jack Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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