Bolivar Peninsula, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bolivar Peninsula, TX


October 3, 2023 4:47 PM CDT (21:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:12AM   Sunset 7:04PM   Moonrise  9:05PM   Moonset 10:46AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 225 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
This afternoon..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 225 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
showers and Thunderstorms can be expected for the next several days over the waters. Coverage should become more widespread in the late week due to a cold front that is expected to move off the coast Thursday night.
ahead of the front, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will provide somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels. Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely and advisories are possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 032029 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Deep Gulf moisture, in combination with a weaker midlevel ridge, strong low-level moisture transport, and diffluence aloft, has allowed for the development of widespread thunderstorms today. The highest rainfall totals have been concentrated to the south of the I- 10 corridor, where some locations have picked up 3-6" of total rainfall. With most of these totals being spread out over the course of the afternoon, along with very dry soil conditions, flooding has been minimal thus far and most rainfall has likely been beneficial for drought alleviation. As of 3 PM CDT, we continue to see the onshore movement of thunderstorms, some of which will have the potential to produce locally heavy rain. With today's antecedent rainfall, the potential for localized flash flooding can therefore not be ruled out early this evening and a Flood Watch will remain in effect through 10 PM CDT. For locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, it will still be important to remain weather aware and consider local road conditions if traveling tonight.

A brief lull in rainfall is expected overnight, with a few isolated showers perhaps remaining mostly offshore. By tomorrow morning, however, the continued presence of deep Gulf moisture along with a few embedded shortwaves in the midlevels will work to trigger another round of showers and storms that should impact most of the area during the day tomorrow. In general, have maintained rain chances of around 60-80% for the area tomorrow morning and afternoon, although the potential for heavy rain looks a bit more limited based on recent high-resolution guidance. While we do not anticipate the need to issue another Flood Watch, it will still be important for those with travel plans to remain cognizant of local weather conditions tomorrow.

In terms of temperatures, widespread rainfall has so far mitigated values this afternoon for most locations east of I-45 or south of I- 10, with Houston so far only reporting a high of 80 this afternoon.
In locations with less rainfall coverage, highs have approached 90.
A similar story is expected tomorrow with high temperatures largely dependent on the timing and extent of rainfall. We generally expect most locations to reach the mid to upper 80s, but these values could again be diminished as we saw today due to rainfall. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s as widespread cloud cover remains in place.

Cady

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

I know what y'all are here for...and yep the cold front still remains on track for the end of the week. Welcome to FROPA Watch: Escape from Summer! Going into Thursday morning, the cold front will be located just to the north of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. The very tail end of the 12Z CAMs depicts that there could be a MCS along the frontal boundary as it moves in, but it does look like the line of storms will gradually fall apart as it moves southward into Southeast Texas throughout the day. Currently, we are just in a general thunderstorm area in the SPC Day 3 Outlook, but some gusty winds would be possible along this line of storms if it manages to hold together through our northern areas. PW values will already be elevated out ahead of the front, but becomes even more elevated up to 2.2"-2.4" along the boundary due to moisture convergence. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary which is why there is a marginal (level 1 out of 4) to slight (level 2 out of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas on Thursday. The slight risk currently extends from Central Texas up to parts of the Brazos Valley (Grimes/Waller/Madison Counties and westward).
Rainfall totals between Thursday and Friday will reach 1"-3" with isolated totals of 4"+ being possible.

The front will be moving rather slowly which keeps rain chances elevated going into Thursday night and parts of Friday as PW values remain around or above the 90th percentile (~1.92"), especially south of I-10. It still appears this front will stall out somewhere along the coast on late Thursday afternoon, which also plays into Southeast Texas being included in the excessive rainfall outlook. A reinforcing front pushes through sometime on early Friday and ushers in the cooler and drier air that we've been waiting for months to feel. Speaking of temperatures, for Thursday it's quite a mixed bag that will depend entirely on the timing of the front. Some of the global models bring the front through the Brazos Valley in the late morning/early afternoon whereas high-resolution guidance suggests an earlier timing. Either way, wherever the front pushes through before the afternoon will see highs in the low to mid 80s and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. This is the beginning of a downward temperature trend that takes us into the weekend...

Finally, we've made it to the good part of the forecast! PW values will be on a sharp decline down to near the 25th percentile (~1.01")
throughout the day on Friday as drier air funnels in. Even drier air pushes in over the weekend that takes us below the 10th percentile (~0.77") along with dew points down into the low to mid 40s...maybe even some upper 30s up north as strong surface high pressure builds into the Central and Southern Plains. The end result is the coolest temperatures we've seen in over 140 days...but who's counting. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the 50s! It'll certainly be a weekend you'll want to go out and enjoy the cool and crisp air...because temperatures begin to rise again early next week as onshore flow and subtle ridging aloft return. The good news is that even with the warming trend, I don't have any 90s in the grids through midweek...so that's something! As far as rain chances next week go, it's a bit uncertain on how fast PW values rise. The GFS is way more aggressive with moisture return than the Euro or Canadian, so I've kept PoPs at a modest 20% offshore beginning late Monday.

Batiste

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact all terminals through this evening, which at times may produce MVFR to IFR conditions and brief periods of gusty winds. Greater chances of rainfall remain focused on terminals along and south of the I-10 corridor for the remainder of today. Overnight, a brief lull in activity is expected before showers redevelop offshore during the early morning hours. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to impact all terminals tomorrow afternoon, once again bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Outside of any stronger wind gusts associated with thunderstorms, prevailing winds should remain out of the southeast at around 10 knots.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

With plentiful moisture in place, expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Coverage of these showers and storms will become increasingly widespread towards the end of the week as a slow moving cold front approaches. Early on this week, one of the main impacts will be an extended fetch of moderate easterly to southeasterly winds causing strong rip currents and above normal tide levels that could lead to coastal flooding around times of high tide. Due to the moderate winds, caution flags are currently in effect for the Gulf waters and bays and will likely continue throughout the week. Seas will remain elevated as well in the 4 to 6 foot range. The cold front will push off the coast on Thursday night with moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds in its wake. Advisory conditions will be possible going into the weekend.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 75 88 73 82 / 40 70 50 80 Houston (IAH) 75 87 75 86 / 50 60 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 86 / 60 70 10 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-226-227- 236>238-313-336>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi47 min SSE 17G21 81°F 82°F29.90
HIST2 12 mi47 min ESE 6G12 80°F 87°F29.91
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi47 min SE 22G25 81°F 83°F29.86
GTOT2 17 mi47 min ESE 8.9G17 81°F 85°F29.87
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 19 mi37 min ESE 18G23 81°F 85°F29.9075°F
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi47 min SE 18G22 82°F 82°F29.88
GRRT2 22 mi47 min E 13G15 81°F 82°F29.86
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi47 min E 9.9G14 80°F 29.89
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 31 mi47 min ESE 17G20 82°F 29.92
TXPT2 40 mi47 min ESE 21G25 81°F 83°F29.85
LUIT2 41 mi47 min S 6G8.9 77°F 82°F29.87
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi47 min S 5.1G9.9 81°F 29.87
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi47 min E 9.9G15 82°F 83°F29.88

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Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX 22 sm55 minESE 14G226 smMostly Cloudy Haze 82°F77°F84%29.91

Wind History from XIH
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
   
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Gilchrist
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Tue -- 12:23 AM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM CDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:56 PM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.5
3
am
1.5
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.4
6
am
1.4
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.1
6
pm
0
7
pm
0.1
8
pm
0.3
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
1.2



Tide / Current for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 03:13 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:11 PM CDT     -2.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:13 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM CDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:05 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current, knots
12
am
0.8
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.2
3
am
0
4
am
-0.1
5
am
-0.3
6
am
-0.4
7
am
-0.6
8
am
-1.1
9
am
-1.7
10
am
-2.2
11
am
-2.5
12
pm
-2.7
1
pm
-2.6
2
pm
-2.3
3
pm
-1.7
4
pm
-0.9
5
pm
-0.2
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
2
9
pm
2.1
10
pm
2
11
pm
1.8




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Houston/Galveston, TX,



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