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FXUS64 KEWX 190755 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mostly cloudy skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas overnight with a mix of high and low clouds. Should see northeasterly flow at the surface move into the area today and this in combination with ample cloud cover should keep highs today in the 70s to lower 80s for most locations with some upper 80s possible in the southwestern CWA Think most of the area will remain rain-free today with little forcing for ascent over the area. Can't completely rule out a stray shower with the south winds overrunning the northerly surface winds but overall chances are low. For the evening hours, the focus will return to the western CWA near the Rio Grande for additional strong to severe storms possibly developing west of the river moving east into the CWA in the late evening hours. This is supported by several of the 00z high-res models. Can't rule out a strong storm with this activity.

A weak disturbance will begin to bring some more widespread chances for showers and storms early Saturday morning and continuing into Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the activity will likely be in the northern CWA, but rain chances will be in place for the entire CWA
NBM guidance is much higher than what the high-res models would support especially for locations south of the Hill Country. Undercut the PoPs slightly but showers embedded in southerly flow just above the surface will be possible. There may be enough instability in the southern CWA Saturday afternoon as the front pulls north a bit to create some low risk for a strong to severe storm. The latest Day 2 outlook from SPC shows a marginal risk and that seems reasonable.
Locally heavy rains will also be possible that could lead to possible minor flooding concerns as rainfall amounts could be in excess of 2 inches in some places.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An upper level shortwave moves overhead as the cold front continues its trek south Saturday night. Forcing by these features of an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs up to 200% percent of normal for this time of year will yield widespread showers with training of cells making for locally heavy rains. WPC has our area in levels 1 to 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rains leading to flooding. However, expect any flooding will be minor and of the urban and small stream variety from rainfall up to 2 inches or so. Instability and shear should allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC has our area in a 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms. The strongest storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

The upper level shortwave moves off to the east while the cool and somewhat drier airmass deepens ending the showers and thunderstorms early Sunday morning. However, under mostly cloudy skies with breezy northerly winds, cold advection leads to a chilly day by late April standards on Sunday with well below temperatures expected.

A zonal flow takes hold by Monday and continues next week. Southerly lower flow returns leading to a warming and moistening trend.
Temperatures warm to above normal by mid week. A low level jet and possible weak impulses aloft encountering a deepening moist layer may allow for some showers by mid week, however chances are currently too to mention.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions continue but we should see MVFR ceilings develop soon with possible IFR conditions by the morning hours. Conditions will be slow to improve tomorrow as conditions remain overcast. Will watch for some possible thunderstorm development closer to DRT tomorrow evening and will mention VCTS to cover that threat for now.
Otherwise, winds through the period will be light becoming northeasterly by tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 76 65 76 53 / 0 20 60 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 64 76 52 / 10 20 60 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 65 79 54 / 10 20 50 90 Burnet Muni Airport 73 62 70 50 / 0 30 80 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 69 81 60 / 20 50 70 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 64 71 50 / 0 30 70 100 Hondo Muni Airport 83 66 80 55 / 10 30 60 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 79 64 78 53 / 10 20 50 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 80 68 79 55 / 20 10 50 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 81 67 78 55 / 10 20 50 90 Stinson Muni Airport 82 67 80 57 / 10 20 50 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Lavaca
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