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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 1004 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1004 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
benign conditions are generally expected across the coastal waters outside of any impacts from Thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly across the open gulf waters, with the best chances Monday and beyond.

FXUS64 KLIX 230455 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

No significant issues in the short term forecast as the pattern remains fairly benign through at least the first half of the weekend. Ridge axis extending from Mexico through the middle Mississippi Valley combined with dry air moving down the back side of the upper low associated with TS Ophelia (located off the east coast) will keep rain chances shunted to the west of the local area.

Going into Sunday, an upper low moving into the Great Lakes region will push a cold front into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. As this front progresses southeastward toward the local area, rain chances will begin to increase. Though there are some timing differences between the different models, most of the available guidance agrees the best chances will be after Sunday night. However, if the front speeds up a bit, some of the higher POPs could be earlier than currently indicated.

Expect temperatures to remain 5-10+ degrees above normal through the weekend with the magnitude of the anomaly varying by specific locations and climatology.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Medium range guidance seems to agree that a shortwave trough coming from the central CONUS and impacting our area on Monday. Ahead of the shortwave, return flow looks to bring better deep-layer moisture into the area. PW looks to get up to around 2-2.1 inches over the northwestern portions of the area on Monday, which is an improvement from the 1.5 expected in the days leading up to Monday. For context, the 90th percentile for PW for that day is 2.01, so there will be plenty of moisture to work with on Monday. The biggest contributor to the increase in moisture is moisture between 700-500mb. In the days leading up to Monday, a pocket of dry air in that layer keeps PW around average, but the increase in moisture in that layer is what causes the increase in PW. So, with the ample moisture and the synoptic support from the shortwave, expecting an increase in rain coverage on Monday, especially in the northwest portions of the area where the better deep-layer moisture resides. Of course, max temps were lowered from NBM in those areas due to expected coverage.

After the shortwave passes, the parent trough over the eastern portion of the CONUS looks to sit in place as a Rex block forms from a developing ridge over Canada. This leaves us on the eastern side of that ridge which keeps us in zonal flow. This will keep us in mild conditions to go into the middle and end of next week

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Have convective blowoff from SH/TS west of the I-55 corridor but VCs are not warranted for nearby terminals for this package. VFR conditions with generally light easterly winds will prevail through the period. Could see inclusion of VCs at BTR, MCB, HDC, or HUM this afternoon but chances of impacts to terminals are too marginal to include at this range.

MARINE
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

No significant changes to the marine forecast with this package.
The main concern continues to be isolated to scattered daily convection with the best chances being Monday onward. Outside of thunderstorm impacts, expect generally benign marine conditions with winds 10kts or less and seas/waves generally in the 1-2 ft range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 94 67 94 / 10 20 0 10 BTR 71 95 73 95 / 20 20 0 10 ASD 68 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 10 MSY 75 91 74 93 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 69 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 64 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Manilla
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:46 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:32 PM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:13 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Cocodrie
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:18 AM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:32 PM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 04:36 PM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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