Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lafitte, LA

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Conditions on Monday will remain the same as those seen this weekend as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf South continues to be the dominant weather feature. Morning clouds and lows in the low to mid 70s will give way to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Monday night will see similar conditions with another round of cloud cover forming after midnight.

Tuesday into Wednesday will be a more transitional period of weather as the ridge axis over the area finally begins to shift to the east in response to a deepening longwave trough over the Plains states. This deepening trough will drive a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, and just enough moisture return into the mid-levels should be sufficient to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any convection should be confined to the front itself and rainfall will generally be short-lived with QPF of less than a quarter of an inch expected. Fortunately, shear profiles are not supportive of any strong to severe thunderstorm activity as the front moves through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front with highs climbing back to near 90 degrees on Tuesday. However, a surge of cooler air on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern will advect into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will fall back closer to average on Wednesday and should fall to slightly below average in the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. A much drier airmass will also move in and this will push dewpoints from the lower 70s down into the 50s on Thursday. With largely clear skies and lighter winds in place by Thursday night, lows will easily dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s resulting in a refreshing break from the recent heat.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The lower ceilings seen earlier this morning have lifted and mixed out into a scattered to broken deck ranging between 2000 and 3500 feet. These conditions will persist through the evening hours.
However, after 06z, another round of low stratus will redevelop as an inversion strengthens with overnight cooling. This stratus will build down to between 800 and 1500 feet closer to daybreak around 10z to 14z, and this will result in periods of IFR restrictions at most of the terminals. Although some patchy light fog may also develop at MCB, overall fog probabilities are too low to include fog in the forecast at MCB or any other terminal in that 10z to 14z time period. After 14z, increased thermal mixing will once lead to improved conditions as the stratus deck lifts and breaks apart. PG

MARINE
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A broad surface high pressure system centered over the eastern Gulf will keep a persistent onshore flow regime in place through Tuesday. Winds will range from 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period. On Wednesday, a cold front will push through the coastal waters. Winds will turn more westerly and then northwesterly through the day and some scattered thunderstorm activity will accompany the frontal passage. These thunderstorms could produce some locally gusty winds as they move through. Other than that thunderstorm threat on Wednesday, a very benign stretch of weather is anticipated for the coastal waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 0 BTR 75 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 74 91 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 75 90 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 86 75 85 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 73 86 72 85 / 0 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.