Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kemah, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A drier airmass has encompassed the area north of I-10 where cloud cover remains sparse this afternoon. PWATs still hovering around 1.5" closer to the coast along with warm air advection in the 850mb level, so cloud cover will be more prominent south of the I-10 corridor. May see a few light showers in the southernmost coastal counties/southern coastal plains through the afternoon.
Cloud cover will expand northward through the overnight hours into Monday. Clouds layer should be confined to the mid-upper levels as we have a ripple in the 500 mb layer during the overnight hours into Monday

An area of low pressure will develop over deep south Texas overnight into Monday. While the majority of rainfall will occur south and west of us, the proximity of the trough should result in scattered showers over the southwestern sector (generally west of I-45). Expecting it to be primarily showers as the airmass expected to remain on the stable side and not conducive to convective initiation.

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will push through the Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more rounds of rainfall to SE Texas. The majority of the area is encompassed in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Tuesday.
Rainfall totals from Monday through Wednesday will be around 1-1.5" for much of the area with isolated higher amounts possible.

Rain chances trend down Thursday, but will return Friday into the weekend (albeit chances are around 20-30%) as more disturbances push through and interact with available moisture (PWATs around 1.5-1.6").

Temperature wise, expect similar temperatures for Monday before another warmup begins. By the end of the week highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows for tonight will drop into the upper 40s up north and into the 50s further south. Areas along the coast will hang around the 60s.

Bailey

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Predominately VFR overcast conditions across our terminals this evening, with some MVFR ceilings possible to the southwest around LBX. Light and variable winds overnight will gradually increase through the morning to 8-12 kts out of the east. LBX will have the best shot at seeing shower activity Monday as the highest rain chances reside well west of the I-45 corridor.

McNeel

MARINE
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The Gale Warnings across the Gulf Waters have been replaced by a Small Craft Advisory (which remains in effect for the bays as well). Winds will continue to gust to around 30 kts in the advisory area with sustained winds around 20-25 kts. Winds in the bays will gradually diminish this evening, with easterly- southeasterly winds prevailing monday into Monday night. Seas will be slower to subside in the Gulf Waters, so the Advisory will continue through tonight for that area.

Another round of showers is expected on Monday with isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon hours, courtesy of another upper level disturbance.

Water levels are expected to hover around 3.0 feet above Mean Lower Low Water during high tide cycles through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 55 67 58 68 / 10 30 50 80 Houston (IAH) 56 69 60 69 / 10 20 30 80 Galveston (GLS) 67 73 69 76 / 10 30 40 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.