Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clear Lake Shores, TX
October 4, 2023 2:26 AM CDT (07:26 UTC)
Sunrise 7:14AM Sunset 7:04PM Moonrise 9:56PM Moonset 11:51AM
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1013 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming smooth late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds around 15 knots, becoming northeast around 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming smooth late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds around 15 knots, becoming northeast around 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1013 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate onshore winds, elevated seas and tides, and periods of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected for the next several days. A cold front that is forecast to push off the coast late Thursday followed by moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water.
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate onshore winds, elevated seas and tides, and periods of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected for the next several days. A cold front that is forecast to push off the coast late Thursday followed by moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHGX 040440 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Deep Gulf moisture, in combination with a weaker midlevel ridge, strong low-level moisture transport, and diffluence aloft, has allowed for the development of widespread thunderstorms today. The highest rainfall totals have been concentrated to the south of the I- 10 corridor, where some locations have picked up 3-6" of total rainfall. With most of these totals being spread out over the course of the afternoon, along with very dry soil conditions, flooding has been minimal thus far and most rainfall has likely been beneficial for drought alleviation. As of 3 PM CDT, we continue to see the onshore movement of thunderstorms, some of which will have the potential to produce locally heavy rain. With today's antecedent rainfall, the potential for localized flash flooding can therefore not be ruled out early this evening and a Flood Watch will remain in effect through 10 PM CDT. For locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, it will still be important to remain weather aware and consider local road conditions if traveling tonight.
A brief lull in rainfall is expected overnight, with a few isolated showers perhaps remaining mostly offshore. By tomorrow morning, however, the continued presence of deep Gulf moisture along with a few embedded shortwaves in the midlevels will work to trigger another round of showers and storms that should impact most of the area during the day tomorrow. In general, have maintained rain chances of around 60-80% for the area tomorrow morning and afternoon, although the potential for heavy rain looks a bit more limited based on recent high-resolution guidance. While we do not anticipate the need to issue another Flood Watch, it will still be important for those with travel plans to remain cognizant of local weather conditions tomorrow.
In terms of temperatures, widespread rainfall has so far mitigated values this afternoon for most locations east of I-45 or south of I- 10, with Houston so far only reporting a high of 80 this afternoon.
In locations with less rainfall coverage, highs have approached 90.
A similar story is expected tomorrow with high temperatures largely dependent on the timing and extent of rainfall. We generally expect most locations to reach the mid to upper 80s, but these values could again be diminished as we saw today due to rainfall. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s as widespread cloud cover remains in place.
Cady
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
I know what y'all are here for...and yep the cold front still remains on track for the end of the week. Welcome to FROPA Watch: Escape from Summer! Going into Thursday morning, the cold front will be located just to the north of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. The very tail end of the 12Z CAMs depicts that there could be a MCS along the frontal boundary as it moves in, but it does look like the line of storms will gradually fall apart as it moves southward into Southeast Texas throughout the day. Currently, we are just in a general thunderstorm area in the SPC Day 3 Outlook, but some gusty winds would be possible along this line of storms if it manages to hold together through our northern areas. PW values will already be elevated out ahead of the front, but becomes even more elevated up to 2.2"-2.4" along the boundary due to moisture convergence. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary which is why there is a marginal (level 1 out of 4) to slight (level 2 out of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas on Thursday. The slight risk currently extends from Central Texas up to parts of the Brazos Valley (Grimes/Waller/Madison Counties and westward).
Rainfall totals between Thursday and Friday will reach 1"-3" with isolated totals of 4"+ being possible.
The front will be moving rather slowly which keeps rain chances elevated going into Thursday night and parts of Friday as PW values remain around or above the 90th percentile (~1.92"), especially south of I-10. It still appears this front will stall out somewhere along the coast on late Thursday afternoon, which also plays into Southeast Texas being included in the excessive rainfall outlook. A reinforcing front pushes through sometime on early Friday and ushers in the cooler and drier air that we've been waiting for months to feel. Speaking of temperatures, for Thursday it's quite a mixed bag that will depend entirely on the timing of the front. Some of the global models bring the front through the Brazos Valley in the late morning/early afternoon whereas high-resolution guidance suggests an earlier timing. Either way, wherever the front pushes through before the afternoon will see highs in the low to mid 80s and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. This is the beginning of a downward temperature trend that takes us into the weekend...
Finally, we've made it to the good part of the forecast! PW values will be on a sharp decline down to near the 25th percentile (~1.01")
throughout the day on Friday as drier air funnels in. Even drier air pushes in over the weekend that takes us below the 10th percentile (~0.77") along with dew points down into the low to mid 40s...maybe even some upper 30s up north as strong surface high pressure builds into the Central and Southern Plains. The end result is the coolest temperatures we've seen in over 140 days...but who's counting. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the 50s! It'll certainly be a weekend you'll want to go out and enjoy the cool and crisp air...because temperatures begin to rise again early next week as onshore flow and subtle ridging aloft return. The good news is that even with the warming trend, I don't have any 90s in the grids through midweek...so that's something! As far as rain chances next week go, it's a bit uncertain on how fast PW values rise. The GFS is way more aggressive with moisture return than the Euro or Canadian, so I've kept PoPs at a modest 20% offshore beginning late Monday.
Batiste
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
IFR ceilings are found late this evening in/around the CLL area and could spread to the E overnight into the UTS and CXO vicinities. Evening models are developing SHRA/TSRA overnight, but are indicating better coverage and intensity during the day on Wednesday in a general NNE to SSW orientation. Most TAF sites should see some activity with lower/reduced ceilings and/or visibilities along with gusty winds and locally heavy rain at times. A decrease in coverage and intensity can be expected in the evening. For winds, going with SE at 5 to 10 knots and occasionally gusty. Next round of SHRA/TSRA looks to move across the area late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. 42
MARINE
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
With plentiful moisture in place, expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Coverage of these showers and storms will become increasingly widespread towards the end of the week as a slow moving cold front approaches. Early on this week, one of the main impacts will be an extended fetch of moderate easterly to southeasterly winds causing strong rip currents and above normal tide levels that could lead to coastal flooding around times of high tide. Due to the moderate winds, caution flags are currently in effect for the Gulf waters and bays and will likely continue throughout the week. Seas will remain elevated as well in the 4 to 6 foot range. The cold front will push off the coast on Thursday night with moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds in its wake. Advisory conditions will be possible going into the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 88 73 82 / 40 70 60 80 Houston (IAH) 75 87 75 86 / 50 70 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 86 / 60 60 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ355-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Deep Gulf moisture, in combination with a weaker midlevel ridge, strong low-level moisture transport, and diffluence aloft, has allowed for the development of widespread thunderstorms today. The highest rainfall totals have been concentrated to the south of the I- 10 corridor, where some locations have picked up 3-6" of total rainfall. With most of these totals being spread out over the course of the afternoon, along with very dry soil conditions, flooding has been minimal thus far and most rainfall has likely been beneficial for drought alleviation. As of 3 PM CDT, we continue to see the onshore movement of thunderstorms, some of which will have the potential to produce locally heavy rain. With today's antecedent rainfall, the potential for localized flash flooding can therefore not be ruled out early this evening and a Flood Watch will remain in effect through 10 PM CDT. For locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, it will still be important to remain weather aware and consider local road conditions if traveling tonight.
A brief lull in rainfall is expected overnight, with a few isolated showers perhaps remaining mostly offshore. By tomorrow morning, however, the continued presence of deep Gulf moisture along with a few embedded shortwaves in the midlevels will work to trigger another round of showers and storms that should impact most of the area during the day tomorrow. In general, have maintained rain chances of around 60-80% for the area tomorrow morning and afternoon, although the potential for heavy rain looks a bit more limited based on recent high-resolution guidance. While we do not anticipate the need to issue another Flood Watch, it will still be important for those with travel plans to remain cognizant of local weather conditions tomorrow.
In terms of temperatures, widespread rainfall has so far mitigated values this afternoon for most locations east of I-45 or south of I- 10, with Houston so far only reporting a high of 80 this afternoon.
In locations with less rainfall coverage, highs have approached 90.
A similar story is expected tomorrow with high temperatures largely dependent on the timing and extent of rainfall. We generally expect most locations to reach the mid to upper 80s, but these values could again be diminished as we saw today due to rainfall. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s as widespread cloud cover remains in place.
Cady
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
I know what y'all are here for...and yep the cold front still remains on track for the end of the week. Welcome to FROPA Watch: Escape from Summer! Going into Thursday morning, the cold front will be located just to the north of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. The very tail end of the 12Z CAMs depicts that there could be a MCS along the frontal boundary as it moves in, but it does look like the line of storms will gradually fall apart as it moves southward into Southeast Texas throughout the day. Currently, we are just in a general thunderstorm area in the SPC Day 3 Outlook, but some gusty winds would be possible along this line of storms if it manages to hold together through our northern areas. PW values will already be elevated out ahead of the front, but becomes even more elevated up to 2.2"-2.4" along the boundary due to moisture convergence. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary which is why there is a marginal (level 1 out of 4) to slight (level 2 out of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas on Thursday. The slight risk currently extends from Central Texas up to parts of the Brazos Valley (Grimes/Waller/Madison Counties and westward).
Rainfall totals between Thursday and Friday will reach 1"-3" with isolated totals of 4"+ being possible.
The front will be moving rather slowly which keeps rain chances elevated going into Thursday night and parts of Friday as PW values remain around or above the 90th percentile (~1.92"), especially south of I-10. It still appears this front will stall out somewhere along the coast on late Thursday afternoon, which also plays into Southeast Texas being included in the excessive rainfall outlook. A reinforcing front pushes through sometime on early Friday and ushers in the cooler and drier air that we've been waiting for months to feel. Speaking of temperatures, for Thursday it's quite a mixed bag that will depend entirely on the timing of the front. Some of the global models bring the front through the Brazos Valley in the late morning/early afternoon whereas high-resolution guidance suggests an earlier timing. Either way, wherever the front pushes through before the afternoon will see highs in the low to mid 80s and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. This is the beginning of a downward temperature trend that takes us into the weekend...
Finally, we've made it to the good part of the forecast! PW values will be on a sharp decline down to near the 25th percentile (~1.01")
throughout the day on Friday as drier air funnels in. Even drier air pushes in over the weekend that takes us below the 10th percentile (~0.77") along with dew points down into the low to mid 40s...maybe even some upper 30s up north as strong surface high pressure builds into the Central and Southern Plains. The end result is the coolest temperatures we've seen in over 140 days...but who's counting. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the 50s! It'll certainly be a weekend you'll want to go out and enjoy the cool and crisp air...because temperatures begin to rise again early next week as onshore flow and subtle ridging aloft return. The good news is that even with the warming trend, I don't have any 90s in the grids through midweek...so that's something! As far as rain chances next week go, it's a bit uncertain on how fast PW values rise. The GFS is way more aggressive with moisture return than the Euro or Canadian, so I've kept PoPs at a modest 20% offshore beginning late Monday.
Batiste
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
IFR ceilings are found late this evening in/around the CLL area and could spread to the E overnight into the UTS and CXO vicinities. Evening models are developing SHRA/TSRA overnight, but are indicating better coverage and intensity during the day on Wednesday in a general NNE to SSW orientation. Most TAF sites should see some activity with lower/reduced ceilings and/or visibilities along with gusty winds and locally heavy rain at times. A decrease in coverage and intensity can be expected in the evening. For winds, going with SE at 5 to 10 knots and occasionally gusty. Next round of SHRA/TSRA looks to move across the area late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. 42
MARINE
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
With plentiful moisture in place, expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Coverage of these showers and storms will become increasingly widespread towards the end of the week as a slow moving cold front approaches. Early on this week, one of the main impacts will be an extended fetch of moderate easterly to southeasterly winds causing strong rip currents and above normal tide levels that could lead to coastal flooding around times of high tide. Due to the moderate winds, caution flags are currently in effect for the Gulf waters and bays and will likely continue throughout the week. Seas will remain elevated as well in the 4 to 6 foot range. The cold front will push off the coast on Thursday night with moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds in its wake. Advisory conditions will be possible going into the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 88 73 82 / 40 70 60 80 Houston (IAH) 75 87 75 86 / 50 70 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 86 / 60 60 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ355-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 6 mi | 56 min | SSE 16G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.88 | ||
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 9 mi | 56 min | ESE 11G | 81°F | 29.88 | |||
| GRRT2 | 18 mi | 56 min | ESE 12G | 83°F | 82°F | 29.86 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 19 mi | 56 min | SW 1.9G | 80°F | 29.86 | |||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 20 mi | 56 min | SSE 22G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.87 | ||
| GTOT2 | 20 mi | 56 min | SSE 7G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.88 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 26 mi | 56 min | SSE 18G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.88 | ||
| HIST2 | 32 mi | 56 min | SSE 6G | 82°F | 87°F | 29.90 | ||
| LUIT2 | 33 mi | 56 min | SE 14G | 84°F | 83°F | 29.87 | ||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 38 mi | 46 min | SSE 21G | 83°F | 85°F | 29.88 | 78°F | |
| FPST2 | 45 mi | 56 min | SE 19G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 9 sm | 32 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 77°F | 94% | 29.89 | |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 13 sm | 33 min | calm | 9 sm | Overcast | 77°F | 75°F | 94% | 29.91 | |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 16 sm | 33 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.89 | |
| KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX | 21 sm | 34 min | SE 21G29 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 82°F | 79°F | 89% | 29.89 |
Wind History from EFD
(wind in knots)Clear Lake
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:57 AM CDT 1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:02 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM CDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:57 AM CDT 1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:02 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM CDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:58 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM CDT -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:54 PM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM CDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:55 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:58 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM CDT -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:54 PM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM CDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:55 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| -0.2 |
| 6 am |
| -0.5 |
| 7 am |
| -0.6 |
| 8 am |
| -0.8 |
| 9 am |
| -1.1 |
| 10 am |
| -1.5 |
| 11 am |
| -1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -2 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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