SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine has made its way within 250 miles of Galveston, and will make its closest approach to Southeast Texas early this morning, before making its way on to landfall along the Louisiana coastline. This is close enough that tropical storm conditions will be expected in a portion of our Gulf waters, but will not extend to the shore (or even within 20 nm of shore, really). It will be a bit on the breezy side along the coast, so we do have a wind advisory for our islands, peninsulas, and coastal zones through the early afternoon, and a small craft advisory on the remainder of our waters. Not quite tropical storm conditions, but a bit of a windy day with frequent gusts above 25 mph.

Those winds should start to back down gradually through the afternoon as the storm begins to gain distance from our area and the pressure gradient weakens. Rain chances - particularly east of the Brazos Valley should persist deep into the afternoon before fading out into the evening. While widespread swaths of rain may push into the offshore waters this morning, we should not expect that over Southeast Texas. For the land, the character of rain will be more periodic, as outer bands will sweep rain showers across the area with some embedded stronger cells...then things quiet down for a while until the next round.

So, for most folks, don't look for a lot of rain. Broadly speaking, widespread totals should be less than half an inch along the Upper Texas coast, with even less rainfall for the vast majority of the area - less than a quarter-inch. With that said, those embedded stronger cells will be capable of producing isolated spots of more significant rainfall. Precipitable water values look to be around or above 2 inches along the coast and east of roughly I-45, and in these areas, there may be an individual cell that manages to drop a quick inch or two in a localized spot. Of course, this highly variable rainfall is a staple of the Southeast Texas experience, and will largely only be an issue if that rain occurs over a particularly vulnerable spot.

Where water may be more of a concern is when it comes to coastal flooding. A coastal flood warning is also in effect, and area tide gauges show a potential for around 2 feet of innundation above MHHW (a rough proxy for ground level, though that is quite variable depending on what that 'ground' in AGL is) at high tide early this morning.

Tomorrow...we begin a bit of a return to late summer conditions.
The sky will be mostly sunny in the wake of Francine, and just how much cloud cover and humidity lingers will determine just how warm we get. In the east, which will hang onto Francine influence the longest, look for highs in the middle 80s. Out on the western edge of our area, highs should break into the lower 90s. Offshore winds will try to hold back more humid air, and while it won't be "dry", those winds should see modest success. In the day, that will likely help temperatures warm up a bit more effectively. At night, it will give us one distinctive difference from full summer, as it should allow us to cool efficiently. Coastal areas can still expect lows hung up in the lower 70s, but north of I-10 should see widespread lows in the middle to upper 60s. Crisp fall night? No, not really...but it's not the oppressive summer night sauna, either.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Not much has changed regarding the long term forecast. Mid/upper ridging builds while a LL onshore flow regime returns for Friday into the weekend, yielding to hot temperatures and humid conditions.
Highs are expected to range from upper 80s to low 90s near the coast to low/mid 90s inland. We are noticing some upper 90s pixels appearing in our grids for the Brazos Valley. Weekend heat index values are expected to be 100-105F. Technically below advisory criteria but still hot enough to warrant heat safety. Overnight lows are expected to average in the low/mid 70s inland and mid/upper 70s near the coast and within the urban heat island.

There is some guidance support for a modest breakdown of the ridging over our area early next week. This is why many of you will notice an uptick in the PoPs and a down tick in the temps by Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, the outlook remains quite summery through at least early next week. So no autumn for you! At least not yet...

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Basically a certainty that outer bands of Francine will impact TAFs, but much fuzzier how exactly that will evolve. Begin with a mix of IFR and MVFR per obs, and VCSH from IAH southward. A line of showers is close enough to IAH that I'm comfortable TEMPOing light SHRA for the first hour or so
After that
timing out rain at the terminals may be a fool's errand. So I stick with broad windows of VCSH, and will trust future forecasts to refine with TEMPO/Prevailing SHRA as needed through the day. CIGs expected to gradually become MVFR area-wide through the day, then will go one of two ways tonight: the more optimistic, clouds break enough that we lose CIGs and go VFR; the more pessimistic, that clouds hang tight and we stay with MVFR CIGs through the period. I'm conservatively going with the pessimistic option, but maybe we can get lucky and break out early.

MARINE
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The outer rainbands of Hurricane Francine will continue to impact the coastal waters and immediate coast through the early to mid morning hours. Winds outside of the bands are generally 20 to 30 knots with occasionally higher gusts. Winds within rainbands, particularly within thunderstorms embedded in the rainbands, could reach 40 to 45 knots at times. Also cannot rule out waterspouts.
Seas this morning are generally expected to be in the 7 to 11 foot range. Winds will gradually back from the northeast to north, then northwest as the day progresses while also gradually decreasing.
Seas will also gradually fall by the afternoon. It may take until Thursday morning to complete rid our marine space of Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas. A light to moderate onshore pattern is expected to return by Thursday night, lasting until at least early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 86 70 89 68 / 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 84 72 89 71 / 40 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 73 85 76 / 40 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-336>338- 436>439.

Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214- 313-335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ375.