Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rosenberg, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A cold front is set to move through the area Saturday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Out ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to begin overnight as low-level convergence increases and a shortwave makes it way across the area. This activity is expected to persist through out the day Saturday and appears to merge with the front that moves through later that night.

With this scenario, there is the potential for training of storms to occur and produce locally heavy rainfall. This has resulted in WPC placing the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
a couple of caveats with that, though
with being in a drought, the flood potential highly dependent on how fast the soil can absorb the rainfall compared to how high the rain rate is. Typically, in colder weather the soil has a little more difficulty with quicker absorption. We have been on the warmer side for this time of year, and dry soils may mitigate the potential, so the flood potential remains marginal, but something to be aware of.

Similarly, SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday. CAPE values are not all that impressive (around ~1000 J/kg, which is enough to help kick off storms, but on the lower end of the spectrum energy wise)...shear, however, is at a sufficient level to result in a few organized storms/supercells.
0-6 km Bulk Shear values are coming in around 30-40 kts
and winds do veer with height
typically in low CAPE/high shear environments we could get organized storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes.

Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give or take a couple hours).

A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s.
Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s.

We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night for rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of the metro.

Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won't do much to bring daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will precede the next front later in the week next week.

Bailey

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A somewhat convoluted TAF forecast for the next 24 hours as passing showers move over Southeast TX during the day today, followed by an increase in showers showers and thunderstorms tonight into early Sun as a cold front moves across the region.
Strong storms will be capable of producing strong VRB winds, lightning, llvl shear, and reduced vis/cigs leading to IFR-MVFR conditions. Showers will gradually taper off a few hours after the frontal passage during the morning hours. S winds at 10-15KT with gusts of around 20KT expect this afternoon, then relax to 5-10KT. In the wake of the front Sun morning, expect N-NW winds at around 15KTS with gusts of around 25KTS. Coastal locations may see gusts of around 30 KTS. IFR-MVFR cigs may prevail into the early afternoon hours for several sites.

Cotto

MARINE
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters.

At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues.
The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a rip current statement is in place for that danger.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 41 49 41 / 90 80 10 30 Houston (IAH) 76 49 54 44 / 40 70 30 40 Galveston (GLS) 76 58 63 51 / 10 70 60 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.