El Lago, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Lago, TX


November 30, 2023 11:29 AM CST (17:29 UTC)
Sunrise 6:55AM   Sunset 5:22PM   Moonrise  8:19PM   Moonset 10:10AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1010 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds around 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 25 knots this afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy this afternoon. Showers. Isolated Thunderstorms late this morning, then Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest around 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then diminishing to around 10 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late evening and early morning, then becoming smooth late. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog late. Some Thunderstorms may be severe. Some Thunderstorms may be severe.
Friday..West winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1010 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
primary concern will be the increased onshore winds and building seas today and on into the first part of tonight as a storm system moves across the area. Southeast and south winds increasing into a 20 to 30 knot range are anticipated along with seas building to 6 to 9 feet nearshore and 10 to 14 feet offshore. This system will also bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms today, some of which could be strong or severe. Periods of unsettled should persist through the day Friday and Friday night as the front stalls offshore while north to northeast winds and elevated seas gradually come down. A weaker offshore flow is expected Saturday through Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Lago, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 301130 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 530 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rain and thunderstorms are expected this morning and afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Though there remains uncertainty regarding whether or not we will have sufficient instability, the strong veering shear profile will create an environment in which only modest instability could result in isolated tornadoes. Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Isolated large hail cannot be ruled out. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding, particularly from I-10 south to the coast. The highest severe weather risk will be from late morning through the afternoon.
Showers and storms could linger near the coast into the evening hours.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A negatively tilted mid/upper trough over the southwest CONUS will push eastward today, ejecting an associated strong mid/upper jet streak over Texas. The resulting LL cyclogenesis over NW Texas will induce a S to SSW LL jet that will propagate eastward over our region. Meanwhile, a surge of deep LL tropical moisture looms behind a warm front that is pushing northward through the CWA this morning.
In addition to the large scale lift created by the primary trough, shortwaves embedded in the mid/upper synoptic flow will introduce additional lift to the region. In other words, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Given the strong veering shear profile, we are concerned that some of these storms could become strong to severe with the primary concerns being tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and possibly large hail. So let's dive into the details.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase from south to north as an approaching shortwave enhances lift in an increasingly moist environment. Meanwhile aloft, S to SSW 850MB winds will continue to increase as the LL jet strengthens and pushes eastward. By the 12Z-15Z time frame, 850MB winds could be approaching 40 knots. RAP analysis shows elevated sfc CAPE sneaking its way up the Texas Coast this morning. Therefore, we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe thunderstorms pretty early in the day over our southwestern counties near Matagorda Bay if sufficient CAPE is able to push far enough north. Showers and thunderstorms are possible during the morning commute elsewhere but the highest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be late morning through the afternoon and possibly lingering into the early evening hours.

LL shear maximizes this afternoon. Bulk shear values are already concerning enough, exceeding 50 knots this afternoon. But of particular concern is the shear created by the 50+ knot LL jet. Fcst soundings suggest sfc-1km shear exceeding 30 knots and possibly exceeding 40 knots. This highly sheared and veering wind profile is favorable for the development of supercells capable of producing a tornado and damaging downdraft winds. The primary potential inhibiting factors will be the morning shower and thunderstorm activity, the lack luster lapse rates at the lowest levels, and the potential for convection over Gulf to limit our CAPE potential even further. Does early day rain and storms significantly suppress later day CAPE? Do subpar LL lapse throw a wrench in our helical updrafts? Does convection over perform offshore, depriving inland thunderstorms of crucial energy? Or can the overall dynamics of the system overcome these limitations? The answers to these questions are uncertain. However, it will not take much instability to result in isolated tornadoes today given the shear parameters. Rain and thunderstorms will end from west to east later today. It could take until sometime this evening for the showers/storms to move offshore and east of our CWA. The risk of severe weather is area wide. That being said, HRRR ensembles have been most aggressive with stronger thunderstorms between the coast and I-10 in recent runs. It will be interesting to see if this trend holds.

In addition to the severe weather risk, locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding will be a concern. Rainfall rates will be high within heavier showers and thunderstorms. CAMs guidance suggest widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally over 6 inches possible. Though locally heavy rainfall is an area wide concern, the best chance of seeing locally heavier totals is over our southern and coastal counties where training cells are most likely.

Areas of fog are possible tonight in the wake of the system. The front is expected to stall offshore tomorrow morning before pushing back northward, introducing another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday. Best chance of rain on Friday will be over our southern and coastal counties. Couldn't rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm or two near the coast on Friday.

Self

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

With some lingering moisture possibly persisting, will keep some low rain chances in Saturday's forecast (higher southeast and off the coast, lower to nil northwest and west areas). A drying airmass (surface and high pressure building into the state) and a transition from a southwest flow aloft to a west to northwest flow aloft will bring dry weather back to the area will cool nights and mild days (lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the 60s/70s) Sunday through Wednesday.

42

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The primary focus today will be the high chance of SHRA/TSRA. A few TS could become strong to severe. Latest trends support TSRA more over our southern terminals. We no longer have TSRA prevailing north of I-10. However, we left TSRA TEMPO groups in all terminals north of I-10 except CLL. Primary time frame of concern for heavy TS will be late morning through the afternoon.
We will also need to monitor wind shear, particularly near UTS during the late morning hours. Model blend used for our wind shear grids did not show a long enough period of shear to warrant WS in the prevailing. But certainly something to monitor. Any heavy TS/SH could drop cigs/vis to LIFR. Speaking of cigs, a mix of IFR and MVFR is likely today. Given what we are seeing in the soundings, we are leaningn towards more IFR for now. Once the TS/SH activity moves east and offshore, the concern will shift reduced vis/cigs.
We have IFR conditions tonight but much of the guidance suggest LIFR.



MARINE
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Today is definitely not a good day for boaters to be out on the waters. Strengthening onshore winds and building seas are expected today as a storm system organizes and moves across the state. Buoy 42019 has southeast winds increasing early this morning with gusts close to 30 knots, and similar speeds should spread closer to the coast/bays as the day progresses today. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings will be in effect as seas rise to 6 to 9 feet nearshore and 10 to 14 feet offshore while winds gusts up to gale force. These hazardous marine conditions could linger into the late evening and possibly into parts of the overnight hours before the gradient starts to relax resulting in lowering winds and seas.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected too with some storms possibly becoming strong or severe. With the storm system's front expected to stall somewhere near/along the coast, we could see some fog development in a late Thursday night through Saturday time period. Conditions will improve over the weekend and into the start of next week as the offshore flow weakens and seas come down.

42

CLIMATE
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Here are today's rainfall records (11/30) for our five major climate sites.

CLL - 1.91 inches set in 1968 IAH - 1.41 inches set in 1968 HOU - 1.05 inches set in 1982 GLS - 1.40 inches set in 1921 PSX - 1.28 inches set in 1968

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 55 68 50 / 90 20 10 20 Houston (IAH) 71 64 72 59 / 90 50 30 40 Galveston (GLS) 70 64 70 62 / 90 60 40 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 9 AM CST this morning through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 9 mi60 min SSE 8.9G11 64°F 58°F29.86
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi60 min ESE 8G12 64°F 29.85
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi60 min S 8G12 68°F 65°F29.83
GRRT2 20 mi60 min SE 9.9G13 65°F 59°F29.85
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi60 min SSE 19G21 68°F 61°F29.84
GTOT2 22 mi60 min SSE 8.9G14 67°F 64°F29.86
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 29 mi60 min SSE 12G15 65°F 61°F29.87
LUIT2 34 mi60 min SSE 12G19 67°F 62°F29.86
HIST2 35 mi60 min SE 5.1G9.9 68°F 65°F29.88
KGVW 40 mi35 min SE 25 70°F 66°F
FPST2 45 mi60 min NW 5.1G6 65°F 61°F29.84

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Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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No data


Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEFD ELLINGTON,TX 7 sm35 minSE 13G196 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 70°F68°F94%29.84
KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX 10 sm36 minSSE 13G216 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 70°F66°F88%29.86
KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX 14 sm36 minSSE 138 smOvercast Lt Rain 70°F66°F88%29.84
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX 22 sm14 minSSE 152 smOvercast Rain Mist 68°F66°F94%29.86
KAXH HOUSTONSOUTHWEST,TX 23 sm14 minSSE 08G167 smOvercast70°F70°F100%29.83

Wind History from EFD
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
   
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Clear Lake
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Thu -- 03:22 AM CST     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:21 PM CST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.8
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.8
7
am
0.8
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.2
5
pm
-0.4
6
pm
-0.4
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
-0.3
9
pm
-0.2
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
0.3



Tide / Current for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 02:05 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 AM CST     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:19 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM CST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.3
2
am
0
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.5
5
am
-0.7
6
am
-1
7
am
-1.4
8
am
-1.8
9
am
-2.1
10
am
-2.3
11
am
-2.3
12
pm
-2.1
1
pm
-1.6
2
pm
-1
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1.4
6
pm
1.9
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.1




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,



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