Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richmond, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Overall, Southeast TX remains positioned between two areas of high pressure and a persistent upper-level trough maintaining its influence overhead. Latest radar returns show scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms already developing and moving northward across the area early this afternoon. The combination of upper-lvl forcing and a plentiful supply of warm, moist Gulf air will sustain this activity over the next several hours. Expect these showers and storms to taper off near sunset as diurnal heating diminishes.

After today, a weather pattern shift is expected. The ridging currently located to our east is forecast to strengthen somewhat and begin a westward progression, moving closer to our region after Tuesday. This pattern marks the beginning of a brief drier trend.
However, chances are non-zero. Will continue with a low chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, primarily to account for isolated storms that may still develop along the sea breeze boundary. As the ridge continues its westward movement, more stable conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday. The increased stability will lead to substantially lower rain chances and the onset of drier and hotter conditions. Highs could potentially climb into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the triple digits.

Uncertainty in the weather forecast increases as we head into the weekend. Most deterministic and ensemble means suggest an active weather pattern with increasing rain and storm chances Friday into the weekend. This is mainly driven by a disturbed area potentially developing along the northeast and north central Gulf later this week. NHC has a 30% chance of cyclone formation across this region in the next 7 days. Again, uncertainty in terms of precipitation chances and potential impacts across the Upper TX coast is high. We will continue to monitor as the system makes its way westward across the northern Gulf in the next few days.
Regardless of development, we will continue with increasing rain and storm chances, particularly for areas east of I-45.

JM

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Two areas of showers/storms are still around Southeast Texas late this afternoon: one near CLL and pushing northward and the other near IAH. Some of these storms are capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 30-40kt at times and intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions. Shower/storm activity expected to gradually decrease after sunset, then dissipate completely by 03Z. Another round of MVFR ceilings expected overnight for CXO and northward after 10Z.
Some periods of patchy fog possible as well going into early Tuesday morning, especially for those that received rainfall earlier today. VFR conditions return by 16Z areawide with southerly winds around 7-12kt. Another round of isolated to scattered showers/storms is possible Tuesday afternoon after 20Z...this has been covered for now with PROB30's for SHRA for terminals around I-10 but these could be upgraded to TS if confidence increases on location for this convection.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Onshore winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, and seas in the 2 to 3 ft range are expected through most of the week.
Isolated showers and storms are possible over the Gulf waters this afternoon, with peak activity across Galveston Bay, including the Houston Ship Channel. This activity will gradually end by sunset.
Lower rain and storm chances are anticipated for Tuesday. A drier airmass will filter in for Wednesday and Thursday as a high pressure moves closer to the region.

NHC continues to monitor an area of low pressure system located offshore of the east coast of Florida, moving westward into the Gulf. There is a 30 percent chance of cyclone formation along the northeast and north central Gulf later this week. This system could bring the potential for locally heavy rain across the northwestern Gulf as we head into the weekend. Mariners, remain weather aware and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

JM

TROPICAL
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of low pressure just off of the east coast of Florida. It is forecast to track westward into the north-central Gulf over the next few days. Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to potentially develop into a tropical depression by the middle to late part of the week, so the NHC has given it a 30% probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days and a 40% probability of development over the next 7 days. The latest suite of ensemble guidance (12Z July 14th) still keeps this low well to our east and more towards the north- central Gulf coast. The only impact to Southeast Texas we are anticipating at this time is an increase of moisture towards the end of the work week, which may bring increased rain chances. However, if this system manages to develop a sufficient closed low at the surface, then it would keep the moisture east of Southeast Texas leaving us dry at the end of the week. As you can tell, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty. Be sure to continue to monitor the forecast from reliable sources for updates as we get a better idea of how this system will evolve.

Stay up to date on the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and stay up to date on the latest forecasts for Southeast Texas at weather.gov/houston

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 93 74 94 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 94 76 95 / 20 30 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 10 20 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.